The Idiocy of Scrimping on Intelligence Analysis

Defence chiefs appear to be as concerned as this blog over plans to cut 121 jobs among the Defence Intelligence Staff analysts who warned that the government’s dossier on Iraq was wrong. They have apparently ordered a rethink of the assault on the Defence Intelligence Staff, part of a “streamlining” of government departments ordered by Gordon Brown when he was chancellor, describing it as a risk too far. I am told that the intelligence services watchdog, the Intelligence and Security Committee, has taken evidence from Chief of Defence Intelligence Air Marshal Stuart Peach with MPs on the committee expressing concern over the plans and that officials have warned internally that the cuts mean vital intelligence will not be adequately assessed and “in some cases may not even be read”.   

John Morrison, former deputy chief of defence intelligence, says this was no exaggeration. “There is absolutely no point in collecting intelligence unless it is going to be used,” he told this blog. The Defence Intelligence Staff desk analysts were already cut to the bare minimum and there would undoubtedly be a loss of expertise that could be absolutely vital in the future, he said. When British troops first went into Sierra Leone, his only desk analyst dealing with the country was covering five other West African countries as well. “You can’t just ramp up expertise like that,” Morrison said.

Brown was chancellor when he ordered all government ministries to move into one building each so surplus buildings could be sold off. The MoD response was a plan to save £50m a year by moving the Defence Intelligence Staff out of the Old War Office building on Whitehall and into the main MoD building. The defence board, the MoD’s top decision-making body has thrown the plans back, describing them as unrealistic and pointing out that “the test of success would not be delivery of the target savings alone”.

Not a moment too soon. The idea that axing 121 of the 591 defence intelligence posts was a good idea at a time when every other British intelligence service is increasing numbers to face the threat from terrorism is ludicrous. “The whole thing is nonsensical,” Morrison said. “It is clearly driven by the desire to fit everyone into one building and sell off the Old War Office as a hotel. Defence intelligence ought to be expanding and getting increased funding and yet they are looking to cut 121 posts.”

Andy Bye, of the civil service union Prospect, said it shared the defence chiefs’ concerns. “There is no way they are going to be able to cut numbers by 121 without impacting on the analytical resource within the Defence Intelligence Staff.” The union has rightly told the MoD it should “identify the defence and security responsibilities it believes the UK can no longer afford and provide the tax payer with a true account of the greater risks this will present.”

The Defence Intelligence Staff controls all military intelligence collection and is one of the frontline intelligence collection agencies, along with MI6 and the signals intelligence body GCHQ. But it is primarily an analytical body and the only one in the UK that analyses and assimilates intelligence on the military capabilities and weapons of potential enemies, which included Saddam Hussein’s alleged weapons of mass destruction.

You might remember that it was Defence Intelligence Staff analysts who raised concerns about the claims made in the government’s September 2002 dossier long before it was published. They were subsequently highly critical of claims made by Downing St’s spin doctors that Iraq could attack British bases with weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes. Although the dossier said some Iraqi weapons of mass destruction could be ready within 45 minutes, Sir Richard Dearlove, the then chief of MI6, told the Hutton Inquiry this referred to battlefield artillery not long-range missiles.

Senior Defence Intelligence Staff analysts questioned the 45-minutes claim during a meeting with David Kelly, who told the BBC’s Andrew Gilligan of their concerns and that the claim’s significance was exaggerated. He might not have used the term “sexed up” that subsequently became so controversial, but that was what he meant. Sadly, Kelly subsequently committed suicide after his role as the BBC’s source was disclosed by the MoD. It would be a sad legacy if those who shared his concerns were now to be axed.

Comments

[elizabeth schumann]

Well, Labour has made it its agenda to destroy EVERY institution that made Britain great. The above is in line with what can be expected of these thugs/

[G.Gibson]

You could send some "intelligence" out to Australia is you want? We dont do defence build-ups too well. The nation is almost gunless. The citizens have lost most of theres and OZ Defence hasnt compensated for the loss. My advice having watched the Defence scene for decades is, "Stay at home. Do not immigrate". In time of global crisis, with sudden major changes to the world military situation, the north of Australia could be over-run in a day of two by Indonesia and not much longer by China. Note: there are already many visions and prophecies around the christian churches about The Lord allowing an invader because of the sins of the people. You have to be wise...dont come here. Ive been collecting revelations on an invader since 1989. I know what Im talking about. Dont get conned by the brochures. The OZ government already leans towards China, making a takeover all that much easier if we do go Red in our politics. Stay and at home.

[G.Gibson]

Do you think Australia could go Red? I do. The new Mandarin speaking PM, Kevin Rudd, already has a fixation regarding "things Chinese" and wants Australia to become a major influence in a EU of asia that could bring about a further weakening of christian democracy in OZ. Like many christians I still believe that communism "down under" is not as dead as it looks. I believe the old Red flame still flickers on, off in quiet backrooms, and still has a following with some of the old Labor guys...enough so, now that Labor is back in power, for it to have a influence in Australian politics. Australia already has over 1,000 Chinese spies (says Chen Yonglin, ex-Chinese diplomat on the run from Chinas secret police) and ASIO is so tied up with the terrorism thing that no one knows who the spies are or where they are. I think the stage is being set, bit by bit, for a future communist style government in Australia even if its quite a few years off. All it needs is a sudden dramatic change in the world military climate and the door opens for China to call Australia "New South China" as has been taught in Chinese classrooms for several decades. A sudden dramatic change in the world military might just be the commencement of the events of the Book of Revelation (click on kings of the east for a run down on the worlds last great army). Christians are expecting the Book to commence soon. Whatever happens regarding the prophesied invasion of Australia by an asian army, I dont expect the mighty USA will be there for Australia if it happens. Prophesy suggests the mighty USA could take a hit from Russia and China as they work together to own the world.