Red Box - Times Online's Westminster blog

Labour websites go vertical: Jon Cruddas and Chuka Umunna target Tory councillors

Jon Cruddas and fellow Compass traveller, Streatham Labour candidate Chuka Umunna, today launch Tory Story, highlighting the work of Tory councillors across Britain. Carefully researched - the launch edition highlights schemes in Surrey praised by David Cameron which later faced cuts, for instance - it aims to tell tales on Tory administrations around Britain. That will take hard work (the heavy lifting is done by two students and a Labour candidate) and funding (the press release mentions left-leaning web campaigns company Blue State Digital in passing, "Mr Cruddas used the services of Blue State Digital during the Labour deputy leadership contest of 2006/07", but does not make clear if they are involved in this venture.)

Along with Will Straw's Left Foot Forward, Labour websites are going for vertical policy attacks over high politics. In part this reflects Labour's belief, backed by polling evidence, that it needs to exploit the fact the public does not believe the wider Tory party - excluding David Cameron - has changed. At the same time, by chosing to avoid purely political debate, websites such as these avoid having to go in to defend Gordon Brown too much. A happy coincidence, no doubt. That wont stop both being worth adding to the RSS.

Downing Street desperate for political credit for GB role at Copenhagen

Talks in Copenhagen are stalling and now at a critical stage. Air Force one has landed and President Obama has arrived via the back door. There's no agreement yet on emission cuts.

But Gordon's political adviser is desperately trying to milk every last drop of advantage out of the stalling talks. Amongst the gems they are briefing the media are:

"Any impartial observer would come in and think Gordon is chairing it"

and

"Obama and Gordon were giggling like schoolboys"

and

"I don't think it would be possible for any leader to do more meetings than Gordon."

I bet other world leaders would be far from impressed at such grandstanding.

Labour MP in Marginal Seat says 'party not interested' in him

Remarks today from a Labour MP rueing the class war - which (as discussed below) appeals to the core vote but not swing voters.

We've given up on swing voters and seem to be going for 31 / 32 per cent on polling day. That's pretty disappointing for those of us who wished they set their sights higher. They tell us that money comes in will go to marginal seats but there isn't any. What funds exist are controlled by the trade unions.

Bunker says class war works

It's a core vote election strategy. We knew it before. We really know it now.

The Mole, who has always had excellent bunker connections, acknowledges that class war doesn't work for swing voters. This is reinforced by today's Populus poll which shows 58 per cent disagree that Cameron's policies are just for the rich.

But differential turnout - motivating your voters to turn out - is they key at the next election.

He goes on to say:

But that misses the point: the 'E-word' is playing very well with Labour's core voters. The proposition that Dave is out to help the rich was supported by most Labour voters (by 59 to 37 per cent).

Brown's strategy is undoubtedly now to shore up the collapsing Labour vote, and it appears to be working. If he can build on that in the next six months, he could still stop Cameron entering No 10.

Labour to step up focus on Lib Dem votes

Liberal Democrat seats - and potential Liberal Democrat voters - could be the key to the election, both sides believe.

The Tories recognise that around 30 of the 117 target seats they need to take are held by a Lib Dem. I'm told that while Lib Dem incumbants were doing little campaigning a year ago, they are now digging in quite effectively meaning those seats are going to be harder for the Ashcroft-Gilbert target seats team to take. See this morning's story.

Meanwhile Labour’s election planners believe an 8-point gap between the current party of Government and the Tories can be closed - by targeting Lib Dem voters.

They say that a third of Lib Dem voters have suggested that they might vote Labour, which would equate to 5 percentage points.

Meanwhile, they believe that the numbers currently saying they support “others" in polls — greens, BNP and UKIP — may go back to Labour, closing the gap by a further 3 percentage points.

Anthony Wells of UK Polling report raises a quizical eyebrow.

Real life, however, doesn’t work like that. In most cases people saying they might change their vote is a “never say never” answer, people who really are pretty certain of voting a certain way but don’t want to commit themselves totally. In the case of that PoliticsHome poll, the 61% included 33% who said “Unlikely – I may yet change my mind, but I would be surprised if I didn’t end up voting for this party”, people who I think are realistically very unlikely to change.

Polls normally show the Lib Dem vote as being the most “uncertain”, but I suspect this is more a result of the type of person who votes Lib Dem: more likely to see themselves as a floating voter dissatisfied with the big two. Certainly it is a regular finding in polls, but never translates into the Lib Dem vote collapsing at election time (indeed, more often they gain support in election campaigns, though it’s not the given some assume). While Lib Dem voters might claim uncertainty to pollsters, I would be more than surprised if Lib Dem support suddenly dropped by a third over the next 6 months.

It’s also worth pointing out that while that PoliticsHome poll showed 45% of potential Lib Dem waverers might vote Labour, it also showed 33% might vote Tory. If the Lib Dems were horribly squeezed, votes could go both ways.

More interesting is actually the fate of “other” voters. While it seems implausible to expect the Lib Dem vote to drop by 5 points, a drop of three points in support for others from their current high sounds more likely. Whether these voters would shift en masse to Labour seems less likely, especially when it comes to UKIP voters.

I’m sure both Labour and the Conservatives could gather some support from Lib Dem waverers, but 5 points worth is just silly. If Labour are to close the gap with the Conservatives, it’s more likely to be because people switch back from the Tories.

Tory peer attacks Gus O'Donnell for writing book with Ed Balls

Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor, has, in an article on the politics of Whitehall by his son Dominic Lawson, questioned the judgement of the head of the civil service for co-authoring a book in 2002, "Reforming Britain's Economic Financial Policy - Towards Greater Economic Stability".

(Currently 874,064 in Amazon sales rank, this £23.99 tome is worth more second hand. Just one copy left in stock for Christmas)

Sir Terry’s successor, Gus O’Donnell, now head of the civil service, clearly understood how things were. Thus he chose to co-edit, with Ed Balls, a book on economic reform explaining how the government had, in those fateful worlds, “ended boom and bust”. The book, Reforming Britain’s Economic and Financial Policy, carried a glowing, self-praising foreword by Brown.

My father, Nigel Lawson, who as financial secretary to the Treasury and later chancellor had developed a very high opinion of O’Donnell’s talents, told me he was astonished that O’Donnell had stepped across the divide from adviser to cheerleader in this way: “I still have a good opinion of Gus, but this was bad judgment on his part.” O’Donnell has told this magazine, as if to indicate a precedent, that “Sam Brittan did something similar for the Conservatives”. Yet Sir Samuel is a journalist and was never a career civil servant (though he did briefly act as an adviser to the Labour government of Harold Wilson). Sir Gus will need to find a much more convincing way of wriggling out of this if he wants to convince an incoming Tory government that he had not become personally too close to Brown.

Sarah Brown already on the campaign trail

From Kevin Maguire's column today:

SARAH Brown was on sparkling form at a shindig at Newcastle's Assembly Rooms. At the dinner (in honour of Chief Whip Nick "Nukie" Brown) she even mocked her hubby, the RoboPremier, for working round the clock. Gordon, recalled Sarah B, rang Nukie at 7.30 one New Year's Day morning. "Hope I didn't wake you," said the PM. "No bother," replied the Chief Whip. A party animal, Nukie didn't have the heart to tell Gordon he was still up celebrating New Year.

George Osborne: Art for arts sake

George Osborne gave an interesting speech at the Tate Family conference yesterday. He indicated he would reverse Labour's drive to make the arts a tool of social re-engineering. Awards of public funds are often made on the basis of their societal worth, rather than their own intrinsic value. Writers - and academics - currently pretend that their work will help bring communities together, target islamic extremism and empower disadvantage youth - even when its focused on 16th century poetry.

So this is an important statement of faith:

“I know that it’s become fashionable to adopt an instrumentalist view of the arts. To talk about how the arts can help politicians meet wider economic or social goals.
“But that’s not why we visit art galleries or go to the theatre. We engage with the arts because great paintings and sculptures and installations are an expression of who we are.
“There is no government metric or policy report that can ever fully capture this basic truth: that art matters for its own sake.
“In the weeks and months ahead, I hope you will see our commitment to the arts reflected in our words and deeds.
“Right from the top our party, we are deeply committed to the British arts sector, and we want to see it flourish and thrive in the years ahead.
“One of the core themes of the modern Conservative Party is social responsibility, and the belief that great things can happen when governments, charities, businesses and social enterprises work together.
“To me, the arts are a fantastic example of this.
“From the world’s greatest art galleries to local theatres, the arts play a vital role in our communities, helping to bind people together and create real social value.”

The only slightly disappointing thing is that there are no specifics of how this will work in practice.

Another step towards the death of New Labour?

We reported this morning that private companies and charities are being frozen out of the NHS, prompting accusations that the Government has bowed to pressure from the unions. Andy Burnham, the Health Secretary, is facing a Cabinet backlash, criticism from the former ministers John Hutton and Alan Milburn and attacks from the CBI and charity groups over proposals to limit outside involvement in the NHS. The Department of Health will publish new guidelines shortly that limit private companies and charities to providing services not already offered or in areas where the existing NHS is failing - the subject of a huge internal battle.

A draft of these guidelines obtained by The Times makes the NHS-first policy clear:

“Only if there was insufficient improvement within a reasonable timescale and the scale of under-performance was significant would the PCT [primary care trust] consider engaging with other potential providers or other solutions (eg, franchising).”

This is regarded as a dramatic shift from the policy set out by Alan Johnson when he was Health Secretary and miles away from the work of Alan MIlburn. His document, Necessity Not Nicety, suggested that primary care trusts should become more competitive and commercial, but Burnham is understood to think that this unsettled the health service.

One thing particularly upsetting Blairites in the tone of a letter from Andy Burnham to Brendan Barber, the TUC General Secretary, thanking them for the help they have given him and suggesting which they say suggests unions have wholesale dictated the policy. This is, of course, heavily denied by Burnham's office who say that the switch could mean more private provision in the NHS. But they also point out that the NHS has "proved itself" over things like MRSA and it's "only fair" they are given a chance.

For the rest of the letter click here

Progress, the Blairite pressure group, are deeply upset about this move, and the matter will shortly move into Lord Mandelson's intray as he prepares to receive a complaint from the CBI.

Daddy bear, mummy bear and baby bear go to the CBI

Richard Lambert, CBI Director-General, today (Monday) commented on the speeches by the three main party leaders at the CBI's Annual Conference in London.

Mr Lambert said:

"All three party leaders rightly addressed the need for a strategy for economic growth, and its importance in reducing the public-sector deficit. However, each spoke with a different emphasis.

"Mr Brown warned that attempts to rebalance the budget too soon could threaten growth. Mr Clegg said a government could take its time, but stressed the need for clarity about the measures needed. Mr Cameron emphasised the risk of tackling the public deficit too late.
"All three were lively speeches that engaged the minds of the hundreds of business leaders in the room, and prompted many questions."

Could you survive the Balls quiz?

Hattip Boulton and Co

Michael Gove's team member looks unimpressed with his joke

Watch Maria Miller's face