An "elegant retreat" on Tory spending pledge? (Update 2)

So is David Cameron about to bow to the Right and drop his commitment to match Labour's spending plans? The Telegraph has made a bold prediction: "David Cameron is prepared to drop his pledge to match Labour's spending increases after the next election to pave the way for tax cuts under a Conservative government, The Daily Telegraph can disclose." ConservativeHome enthusiastically picks up the baton, reminding readers that this would mark victory in its campaign.

But such a move would present Cameron with a political credibility problem. In an interview with The Times three weeks ago he ruled this out and suggested that he would repeat the pledge after the next spending round:

"(David Cameron) rejected calls from his own Right to ditch a commitment to stick to the Government's spending plans to 2011 and said that he did not rule out doing so into the years beyond. 'We will look at [the projected spending figures] and see if they are consistent with our principles. If they are we will support them. I am being very careful because if you say anything else that strange man in Downing Street will cook up an enormous package of Tory spending cuts. It is complete and utter fiction. I have seen it done before and I have learnt a thing or two in the last few years.'"

So too for George Osborne, after his interview in the Sunday Telegraph earlier this month:

"Mr Osborne says the Tories will remain firmly wedded to their policy of sticking to Labour's spending plans and dividing the proceeds of growth between tax cuts and public services. In fact, his argument is that it will be difficult enough to stick to Labour's spending plans.

"For two years I stood at the dispatch box and told Gordon Brown that the rate of spending growth was unsustainable and we needed to reduce it. And that is exactly what has happened. There will be a lot of pressure on public finances, because if you get an economic downturn there tends to be an increase in public expenditure as welfare payments go up and tax revenues fall. To say we are going to be even tighter, even more draconian than Margaret Thatcher, I just don't think is sensible or economically credible. Now is not the moment to abandon the consistent strategy we have had, it is the moment to say we are vindicated, the approach we have advocated is the correct one.''

No doubt there are some (wishful thinking?) discussions somewhere, presenting some half-way house solutions (the "elegant retreat" option floated by the Telegraph) but could Team Cameron risk such a u-turn?

Updated: ... although if they wanted to kill the story dead, they could have done so more firmly than this quote from a spokesman for George Osborne: "David Cameron and George Osborne want to achieve lower taxes but they understand that the way to do that is by sharing the proceeds of growth in other words, growing government more slowly than the growth rate of the economy. That is the route to economic stability. They have set out spending plans to 2010-11 which are entirely consistent with this approach and have no plans whatsoever to change direction."

Update 2: Peter Riddell reminds Tory tax-cut advocates this morning that the pledge only really holds until 2010 because of a review in 2009:

The Tory pledge was devised last year when a general election was in prospect this spring but since a contest is now unlikely until May or June next year at the earliest, a Conservative government would not come to office until the second of the three years in question was already under way, and it could be much later. Moreover, the Tories have said that, like Labour, they will reexamine the final, 2010-11 year, in a review in 2009.

Comments

[Aaron Heath]

It was always a silly idea to take on Labour's madcap spending agenda. Now at least the Tories can offer people what they really want - halting the year-on-year tax increases.

Just looking forward to my council tax bill...

[Anne Murphy]

What does it matter what they say in the manifesto? Labour has already made it clear manifesto promises give rise to no ligitimate expectations for voters that they will be abided by. That means Tories will be free to say one thing and then do something entirely different.