How much does Gordon want Ken to win?

This morning's Times reported that senior figures in Downing Street believe that if Mr Livingstone wins it will be by the narrowest of margins. We reported that Gordon Brown had all-but written off Ken Livingstone’s chances of winning the London mayoral election, according to close allies.

Why would Gordon Brown say such a thing? Five theories:

1. Because Gordon Brown means it and thinks Ken Livingstone is going to lose

2. Because Gordon Brown doesn't mind if Ken loses (not least because of past disagreements) and / or wants Boris Johnson to win because of its potential impact on Project Cameron

3. Because Gordon Brown is playing an expectations-management game

4. Because such statements help to motivate Ken voters in an election where turnout is all

5. Because it is a sign of discord between No 10 and Team Ken

Comments

[adam]

How do you know Gordon Brown said it? All you're quoting is 'close allies'.

[Dave Hill]

1. Maybe.

2. If Gordon doesn't want Livingstone to win, why has he used a succession of PMQs to bash Boris and why has he made such a public declaration of support of him over the management of Crossrail?

3. Maybe.

4. Maybe.

5. see 2. above.

My conclusion? He's desperate for Livingstone to win but scared that he might lose. For what it's worth, I'd say Livingstone's chances are better than that last poll suggested.

[Michael G Conlon]

Please let Ken win. A London with Boris is too scary to contemplate.

[Duncan Webster]

Of course Boris will win. Boris is putting out really clear policy proposals and he clearly has the abilities to lead our great city. Remember to get out there on May 1 and vote Boris!

[Terry]

I think it's a mixture of different 'theories'. Most obvious is expectations management - minimise the internal fallout post-May 1st. It has been said that parties don't win elections, Governments lose them. Perhaps he's trying to adhere to this and keep the party front more united? Certainly appears to be working when comparing vs. Tories (Schools, for instance).

I also think that #2 is quite a valid point - albeit not a strategy, but merely a consolation if Ken does indeed lose. I.e. it's the 'silver lining' out of the whole event.

I note one Tory commenting below (M. G. Conlon) - perhaps one would care to comment on the article, rather than plugging a site that comes up on the google search list with a 'Vote For Boris' message?

Just a thought. But then, Tories don't usually follow common sense, do they? Take the Tory Mayoral Candidate, for instance..

[Terry]

Apologies - D. Webster. I misquoted M. G. Conlon earlier.

[Steve Williamson]

f course Boris will win but it will have absolutely nothing to do with his policies and drive for change. No his success in the mayoral race will be down to the fact that he has made himself very popular with modern Britain by playing a boob on TV...... it is amazing what lengths someone has to go to in order to get voters under the age of 150 of their backsides!!!!

[david webster]

I never underestimate the electorates stupidity. Ken runs London like a personal fiefdom with little regard for proper accountability to the assembly a a collection if very dodgy hangers-on. He has long since past his cheeky chappy "stand up for London" sell by date.

[irving]

choice: ken in embarrassing Gordon.
boris in embarrassing Cameron

no brainer

[Diversity]

Easy. Gordon's second preference is a LibDem win - that would really put a crease in Project Cameron. And it might work. If anti-Boris voters realise Ken might not walk it, their best bet is to switch first preferences to Paddick. If Paddick is in the last two, the second preferences mean that Paddick wins; Boris loses

But Gordon must not be seen as against a Labour candidate; so it is "close allies" talking.

[Richard]

Gordon Brown has enough to worry about trying desperately to hang on to a post he was never elected to hold.

Livingstone is equally desperate to cling on to the office of mayor of London.

Time for both of these worn-out politicos to be swept from office.