Local Elections: Tories to break through in North East and Wales?

The first independent predictions of what will happen in the local elections outside London are in, suggesting that the Tories could "make gains deep in traditional Labour heartlands".

Professor Colin Rallings is suggesting that the Tories could make some symbolic victories, including North Tyneside Council - their first metropolitan council in the North East - and Vale of Glamorgan Council, their first in Wales.

Professor Rallings, of the Local Government Chronicle (LGC) Elections Centre at the University of Plymouth, has also predicted that Labour "holds no realistic chance of gaining a single council on May 1", according to the LGC, quoted on Labour Home.

The Local Government Chronicle says that losing Reading would leave Labour with no councils in the South East region outside London. (Luton and Stevenage are officially classified as being in the East of England.)

Other predictions: Tories likely to retain Coventry City, a surprise win in 2006. Labour could lose control of Reading Borough Council for the first time since 1986. Nuneaton & Bedworth borough council, one of only four councils it controls in the West Midlands, could turn Tory on a 4 per cent swing.

Labour, meanwhile, is suggesting that it may gain seats in Liverpool, Bradford, Lincoln and Birmingham, although privately predicting that the share of the vote will be unchanged from last year (BBC: Con 40%, Lab 27%, Lib Dem 26%, Others 7%)

Full details of individual councils below the fold

Local Government Chronicle analysis

Cheltenham (NOC). Current composition Con 17; Lab 1; LD 17; Others 5. Half the council is elected in even numbered years. Conservatives and Liberal Democrats each need 4 gains to take overall control. Conservatives have the better chance this year, though it would still take a swing of 6% from Lib Dem since 2004.

Coventry (Con). Current composition Con 28; Lab 23; LD 1; Other 2. A surprise Conservative gain in 2006: they now cannot afford to lose a single seat and retain overall control. The key wards are Foleshill and Wyken: both won by Con in 2004, but lost to Labour last year.

Durham. New authority with 2 seats per old county division, making it the country's largest council (126 members). Should be a safe Labour bet -Labour won 53 of 63 seats in 2005 (34 of them with majorities in excess of 30%). However, with several deselected Labour councillors threatening to stand as Independents, some shock results could be on the cards.

North Tyneside (NOC). Current composition Con 28; Lab 23; LD 9. Conservatives are just 3 seats short of winning overall control and possible tension with the Labour elected mayor. . They need to win the Benton, Collingwood, and Killingworth wards on a 2% swing from Labour since 2004. Con won them all last year.

Nuneaton & Bedworth (Lab). Current composition Con 14; Lab 20. Half the council elected in even numbered years. One of just two Labour held districts with elections this year. A 4% Labour to Conservative swing since 2004 in Arbury, Bede, Exhall and Heath wards would turn the council straight over to Cameron's party.

Reading (Lab). Current composition Con 14; Lab 25; LD 7. Labour is in real danger of losing its majority on the council for the first time since 1986. Conservatives topped the poll in both seats and votes last year, and would make 4 more gains if those results were repeated.

Vale of Glamorgan (NOC). Current composition Con 20; Lab 16;PC 8; Ind 3. The whole council is up for election. Conservatives need 4 gains to take control and boost their campaign to win the marginal parliamentary seat of the same name. A 2% swing from Labour since 2004 in the Cornerswell and Dyfan wards could do the trick.

Comments

[Justin Hinchcliffe]

We already control Monmouth Council in Wales.

[Gareth Carver]

This analysis is complete nonsense. Given that Labour had a car crash election in 2004 - the last time these seats were up for election, there is no way that the Tories could make substantial gains. In 2004 Labour were at their lowest ebb thaks to the Iraq war, and lost huge numbers of seats to the Lib Dems. Labour should actually make gains.This is lazy analysis by the Times. Very lazy

[Diablo]

Time will tell,Gareth, but it will be interesting to hear your analysis of the results on May 2nd. Don't you keep up to date with the news?

[Graham]

Erm, the Vale of Glamorgan is not a Labour heartland. If you saw Penarth, Cowbridge, etc., you'd understand.

[Graham]

Just because it's in Wales that doesn't make it Labour! Assuming all Welsh councils are Labour strongholds is most lazy.

[S Jamieson]

Bear in mind that in the northern metropolitan districts, in 2004 (the last time these seats were up), it was an all-out postal vote,

Labour did better because of that and held on to several seats they would not have done. Those seats are now being defended in a climate that is even more unfavourable to Labour

[StevenAdams]

I think it is Gareth Carver's rather partisan analysis that is lazy - not the Times.

The figures speak for themselves: small swings needed in those seats.

The trends speak for themselves: Labour's last few elections (local and national) have been awful.

The current situation speaks for itself: the conservatives are having their best poll results for 20 years - and sustaining them.

Given these facts, suggesting that "there is no way" that Conservatives could make gains sounds like a blinded and biased comment.