Local elections: the expectations game

Before elections, all three political parties give their predictions of what will happen. They frequently bear little reaction to what does happens on the night. That's because these briefings are part of the expectations game. Indeed, if a party's predictions have come true, that's likely because they've done extremely badly indeed.

Here is a round-up of what the three parties are currently saying about the 4,023 seats up for election in England and Wales this year.*

Conservatives say: "Modest two figure" increase in seats, though they admit this is on the low side. Aiming for 40 per cent share of the vote (which they got last time). Possible northern gains in Bury. Expecting to lose Coventry and do badly in Slough. Opponents: If Labour lose 200 seats that will be "meltdown" or "catastrophic". Lib Dems may make net gains or losses.

Liberal Democrats say: Net loss, possibly around 80-100 seats. They say 25 per cent share would be "quite hard" although they regularly poll six points above their national share in the opinion polls. Losses to the Tories in rural areas.  Focusing on possible gains in Sheffield, Cardiff and Hull. Could lose Liverpool, with just two losses meaning it is a hung council. Opponents: Tories should make 300 gains, Labour around 160 losses.

Labour say: Net losses of 200 seats. Expecting to poll 25 or 26 per cent share of vote.

*NB This is the smallest of the four-year electoral cycle (compared to 10,500 last year when Tories gained 911, Labour lost 479 and Lib Dems lost 246)