Crewe expectation game
Asked privately what would they would consider a "reasonable" result in the Crewe by-election, Labour campaign sources say a defeat of less than 3,000.
To put that in perspective, the May 11 ICM-Mail on Sunday poll had Tories four points ahead with Conservatives on 43 and Labour on 39. The paper said this this would equate to a 1,000 Tory majority. The May 18 ICM-NoW poll saw the gap widening to eight points, 45-37. ComRes today has 48-35.
So a Labour defeat by 3,000 is way beyond anything being predicted by polls at the moment.
Does the margin REALLY matter? The indications are that 'New' Labour will be beaten so it wouldn't surprise me if they have written off this seat already.
What does matter and its what NL should be of concern is the momentum that the Tories will gain from their first by-election victory since Adam was a lad.
Posted by: KWC | 20 May 2008 12:57:58
I feel something in my water, a big Tory win.
Oh dear, I've said it now.
Posted by: Trevor | 20 May 2008 12:58:28