Labour's prediction for Henley

A spokesman for the Labour Party was saying earlier this evening that Labour will lose its deposit in the Henley by-election to replace Boris Johnson, which is expected on June 26.

In 2005, the Conservatives got 24,894 (53.5 per cent), Liberal Democrats 12,101 (26 per cent) and Labour 6,862 (14.7 per cent)

In 2001 the Conservatives got 46.1 per cent, Liberal Democrats 27 per cent and Labour 21.1 per cent.

In order to hang on to the £500 deposit, Labour must receive over five per cent of votes cast. Assume turnout remains broadly the same as in the 2005 general election (as broadly happened in Crewe) putting it in Henley around 46,500. Therefore Labour would lose the deposit if they get 2,400 votes or less, the casualty of just 4,000-odd voters peeling away since 2005.

This would be symbolically dreadful for Gordon Brown. But given the kick Gordon mood at the moment, anything is possible, particularly if the Labour Party are planning a campaign as anodyne as this website suggests.

Comments

[ak23566]

I suspect this is more a case of Labour attempting to manage expectations.

[Baskerville]

This is cleary a sacrificial strategy... put up a dull candidate, campaign on issues irrelevant to Henley - social justice, social housing, etc - reprise the Crewe 'toff' campaign, in the hope of driving all their voters to the LibDems and make the story about Tories under pressure, rather than Labour meltdown.
And why draw attention to the chaos at Labour HQ by pointing out in the party stamp at the bottom that Chris Lennie is only 'Acting' Gen Sec? A shambles... but possibly a deliberate shambles?