The figures in Norwich North that show the Tories are on course to win

Just returned for Norwich North, where three weeks today voters will select a replacement to Dr Ian Gibson, who quit Parliament forcing a by-election last month.

This held a number of suprises amongst the fiesty, independent voters of Norwich North.

The first was that they showed little sign of anger at Dr Gibson over his expenses - he was barred from standing after selling his taxpayer-funded flat at to his daughter cut price. "He did it for his family", said one voter, reflecting the views of several who said that - at worst - his behaviour was no worse than any other MP. Looks like the Labour party got that one wrong.

There is plenty of fury, however, at Labour for ejecting him from the party - Dr Gibson is much loved locally, and gained a huge personal following amongst the Tory inclined voters.

The Tories have selected a 27 year old management consultant Chloe Smith, who works for Deloitte and trots out the party line adequately enough (she will be a "fresh voice", she says) but unavoidably has none of the stature of her predecessor - unsurprising given her age. The pressure on her must be enormous - two trips from Cameron already, the Ashcroft target seats campaign are in place.

Labour are a bit of a shambles - the candidate Chris Ostrowski, 28, wasn't around the two days I was there. He wasn't big in the party before, being number 6 on the east of England regional list in the European elections. Nor was it entirely clear who is running the campaign (Downing Street said it was Suffolk MP and whip Bob Blizzard but by 5pm yesterday he still hadn't turned up in the campaign office, according to the local party). There is a sense amongst some Labour MPs - who also largely support Dr Gibson - that they have already thrown in the towel on this one.

The Lib Dems have selected a more charismatic choice, April Pond, but the party didn't do that well in the June county council elections. The Greens are the big unknown, and are talking up their chances of coming second.

Looking at the last two election results, this by election would appear to be a tightly fought two horse race between Labour and the Tories - Gibson's majority was little over 5,500 in both. But a new analysis by the Eastern Daily Press, whose by-election coverage is excellent, is much more telling.

This analysed the results from the June elections in the same wards that will vote again on July 23. Although the overlap is not exact, it gives a pretty good idea of party allegiance once the personal Gibson vote is stripped away. The (unbylined) analysis found:

An approximation would give a line-up based on the June 4 results of:

Conservatives 10,656 (40.1pc);
Labour 4,953 (18.6pc);
Lib Dem 4,371 (16.5pc);
Green 4,251 (16.0pc);
Ukip - standing in only four seats - 2,106 (7.9pc);
BNP 228 (0.9pc).

A more recent poll, based on a smaller sample and unusual questioning, gave the Tories a 4 per cent lead. But at the moment, we look on course for the seat turning blue.

Comments

[Simon]

Good news Gordon. Theres a labour party safe seat. Bad news is its in Australia!

[Henry North London]

I know we didnt stand in the June 4 elections apart from in one council ward but our percentage there speaks for itself. Andrew Hunt for the Libertarian party

So by that reckoning we would retain our deposit for Thomas Burridge, the Libertarian party candidate for Norwich North

[steve]

If Dr Gibson is so popular with the locals, why does he not stand as an Independent?

[A Walton]

Labour would do better, if Brown stood as a independent. He could then tell the truth, that the nation is in such a mess, because of his ignorance. And he hypnotise the other MPs' ,when they still say he was a good Chancellor.
What was in the 1997 manifesto: to clean up sleaze, and to keep the nation's deficient within 40% of GDP?

[madge Blair]

How any one could vote for a party with a leader like David Cameron I just don't understand.
Not only does this man now wish to see children brainwashed about homosexuality in schools, but he also is a signatory to the leftist/fascist organisation Unite Against Fascism, who were responsible for the disgraceful attack on two legally elected politicians(MEPs') outside parliament. Therefore Mr.Cameron is responsible for this thuggery by association.

[Simon]

Why would anyone be stupid enough to believe the labour party homophobia smear campaign?

[A Goddard]

Dr Gibson did wrong feathering his own nest - he is not worthy of parliament. In fact all existing mp's should be sacked before the next election and new clean people run for parliament.

[John]

Whatever the voters of Norwich decide next week, they can decide again within a year

[John]

A Goddard. Have you not read Animal Farm?
Is running the country so easy that anyone can do it without any previous experience?
You could say that Dr Gibson is the only honourable MP because unlike the rest he has, by resigning, given up his right to redundancy pay. Hardly the act of someone who is greedy is it?

[Geoffrey Woollard]

If I lived in Norwich North, I would vote for any candidate who, in regard to Afghanistan, would say the words I most want to hear:

Bring our boys home now!

[Albert Hall]

Now, if I lived in Norwich North, or anywhere else for that matter, I would vote for any candidate that would say the words "arrest Brown and Bliar for treason and execute the pair of them". That is the only penalty for traitors.

[Bill Holden]

When will the press report the campaigns of the 12 candidates in this by-election ? This election is corrupt, without equal access to the media people will go to the poll with a knowledge of only half the candidates. In some countries they do not count all the votes, here we try to make sure that the votes are not cast in the first place. THIS ELECTION IS CORRUPT.

[Dave]

David Cameron is a member of Unite Against Fascism/Searchlight. They are the people responsible for hitting a BNP guy over the head with a hammer and yet he espouses democracy.
I have no wish to see the BNP in power. However, we should appreciate that they sincerely believe in their cause: why else would they face hammer attacks and being pelted with eggs on a daily basis?
I'd believe mainstream politicians more if I saw any semblance of them even trying to implement the wishes of the people (Lisbon Treaty, immigration etc).
Johnsons rubbish on the Andrew Marr show was ridiculous. To pretend that we have a closed door immigration policy and that his points system is similar to that of the Australians is just damned lies in the face of the hard evidence all around us.