Will the next election be in 2010?

Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, made a very important speech on January 17th 2007, her first speech as President of the Council, to the European Parliament.  She put the German position on the future of the European Constitution.

“The phase of reflection is over.  Our task now is to prepare new decisions by June.  I intend to strive to ensure that at the end of the German Presidency a road map setting the way forward for the constitutional treaty can be adopted.

“It is in the interests of Europe, the Member States and its citizens, to bring these problems to a successful conclusion by the next elections to the European Parliament in Spring 2009.  Not to do so would be an historical failure.  Let us rise to the challenge.”

More recently, there have been leaks of a pact between Gordon Brown and Tony Blair to refuse to allow the European Constitution to interfere with Labour’s programme for the next election.  They are prepared, apparently, to use Britain’s remaining veto powers to keep the Constitution off the European agenda.  The natural date for the next British General Election is May, 2009, which would come a month before the next European election.

The Conservatives, who are anxious not to lose votes to UKIP, would be happy for Brown and Blair to succeed.  But will it be possible with Chancellor Merkel so determined to revive the constitutional issue?  Perhaps this coincidence of dates, and Labour’s current position in the polls are further reasons for expecting an election to be postponed to 2010, after a full five year Parliament and nearly three years of a Gordon Brown premiership.

Comments

[Chris Sherwood]

It's awfully hit-and-miss though isn't it? I mean, you're gearing up for an election and suddenly Iran bombs Tel Aviv, or Pyongyang attacks Seoul, or terrorists take over an African country, or climate change becomes the dominant issue when the Thames Barrier is overwhelmed... I think it would be silly to plan an election date on the basis of a possible, hypothetical debate on the next EU treaty.

[Winchester whisperer]

God help us all if we have to endure 3 years of Gordon Brown

[Frank Schnittger]

It all depends on whether Briton wants to make a positive contribution to the development of the European Union, or whether it will continue to adopt the childish posture of drawing all the benefits of the single market and using Brussels as a bogeyman for all the decisions the Government actually wants but needs to blame on somebody else for domestic political reasons.

Perhaps it might suit a Brown led Labour Government to have Europe high on the agenda in order to encourage a drift of votes away from the Tories and towards the UKIP. Expect a lot of grandstanding as the election draws nearer. “Brown Bashes Brussels Bureaucracy” and "Brown Thwarts Franco-German Plan" will go down well in the Labour heartlands as well.

Never mind that the new Constitution is actually designed to make that bureaucracy more accountable, transparent and efficient in its decision making processes. Now that wouldn’t do at all would it? It would make it so much harder to blame Brussels for the implementation of decisions agreed to and sometimes covertly driven by the U.K.

Briton really deserves to be cast adrift from the European Union and allowed to become a formal colony of the U.S., but that is probably too much to hope for. Only when Brown is defeated by middle England and Scotland decides it no longer wants to be a part of little England will the British decide that perhaps the EU isn’t such a bad idea after all – as a way of maintaining some semblance of unity in the British Isles.

But by then it will probably be too late. Europe will have moved on and left little England in its wake – desperately hoping that no one will notice how insignificant it has become in world affairs – ignored even by its supposed great friend on the other side of the pond. Oh, I forgot. That’s already happened.

[John Charlesworth]

The idea of an election in 2010 reminds me slightly of Jim Calaghan who tried to keep going as long as possible until his popularity increased. It backfired dramatically and so would such a ploy this time.

I don't think that the German Election date will play much of a role in deciding such a date but I bow to others vastly superior knowledge on these things.