Flat Earthers Cup Conspiracy

Conspiracy theorists have been having a field day over the Carnegie Challenge Cup quarter-finals draw. And being a bit of a warm ball/cold ball theorist in the past, I've been digging away. The draw, featuring Martin Offiah (left), was broadcast on the BBC News Channel at 6.50pm on Monday live from London, or was it ? The precise draw appeared on the totalrl.com fans forum at 12.31pm based on a text message sent to a Bradford fan. Had the draw already been made and leaked out ? Er, afraid not, just a case of texter's luck. The draw machine was in fact still in the boot of RFL media manager Andrew Whitelam's car headed down the M1 and the draw was made live (really, honestly, truthfully) - unlike the fifth round draw that went out as live but was in fact recorded three hours beforehand due to a studio availability problem. Had it been done early, I think the producer on Monday might have edited Offiah's bumbling comments afterwards in mixing up just about every tie. Anyway, that man on the moon caper ...

Comments

[Numptyboy]

Read abouve you muppets and you'll see the fifth round draw wasn't live. Blimey some of yous lot would find conspiracy in your granny serving you a fish supper, with a mug of cocoa and home made rock bun.

[RFL Muppets]

Never mind the quater final draw

Can anybody tell me if round 5 of this years Challenge Cup was meant to have been drawn live?

Because the draw was predicted here

http://forums.rlfans.com/viewtopic.php?t=350726&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

before it was made/shown on telly

[Numptyboy]

This is stuff and nonsense. There is no conspiracy, why would there be ?

[Hull Kingston Bronco]

I guess it would be quite something for the BBC, RFL, Offiah etc to all be in on a blag like this... but seriously Chris I reckon you're dropping the idea too easily. Only two "guesses" were published online, it's not like there was a random predictions conversation going on and one of many just struck lucky.

Both claims were that they knew the draw, and both the same - although one got the draw order wrong. The chances of predicting the draw correctly in order are 1 in 8 factorial, or 40,320 to 1. How likely is that vs the alternative hypothesis of "media partners get caught out and try to cover their backside afterwards". Do the maths Chris! Indeed, if we assume that the two individuals guessed independantly, the chances of them both being right in isolation are 1.63 billion to one....

[Paul]

CBass: I'll do the probability theory for you... In the 5th round there are 16 teams. If 6 are what you class "big teams", then the probability of all 6 of those teams avoiding each other so there are no "juicy" TV clashes is 1 in 8008. Therefore the chances of a juicy clash are actually 99.988%.

No surprise really, and certainly no fix!

[Neil Armstrong]

The forum post stated that the draw had already been made and then stated what it was precisely. It wasn't like lots of people were just guessing the draw. The odds are stacked against a lucky guess.

[Darren]

CBASS, what are the chances of there being a TV friendly clash in the 1/4 finals in a sport which is dominated by 12 Super League teams?

12 into 8 won't go, so there will be some tasty match-ups.

[CBass]

Not withstanding whether this round is fixed, it is a standing joke amongst my friends that every year, without fail, the 5th round manages to produce a TV friendly ties between 2 of the current big 5/6, and also a secondary TV fixture between 1 of the big 5/6, and a lesser Super League side.

If you check the records, it is probably 10 to 15 years now on the trot, which statistically is unlikely to say the least.

[Smitty]

A spokeswoman for BBC Sport said: "The draw was done live on set in Television Centre at 6.51pm. There is no question it could have been recorded anywhere else earlier in the day. It was not dress rehearsed."

[Big Bully Booaza]

What are the odds of guessing not just the correct match ups but the correct home advantage and with each game in eaxactly the same order that it was drawn?

Also if Offiah's bumbling was as you suggest off the cuff why was he reading from a script?

I don't doubt that the draw is honest but the way that it's been handled suggests otherwise.

Monday this, Tuesday the fact that they didn't notice after the last round that Hull had fielded an ineligible player against Rochdale.

What balls up is it going to be today from the RFL?

[Numptyboy]

Great Balls Offiah, this is ridiculous.

[Phil]

Perhaps Martin just forgot his script... and the result looked convincingly "live"?