Will your Michael Jackson tickets be worth more than the refund?

Guest post by Dr Christopher Paley

In offering Michael Jackson ticket holders the choice to take a refund or receive their unusable tickets as souvenirs, AEG have introduced music fans to one of the most intractable problems in the mathematical sciences.  If nearly everybody takes the refund then the tickets, designed by the King of Pop himself, will become collectors’ items and worth a fortune.  However, if all 750,000 fans take their tickets then they will all hold worthless bits of fancy paper.

The choice facing fans is analogous to the El Farol bar problem, which has been the subject of hundreds of academic papers and inspired a whole field: minority game theory.  In this problem, there’s a funky but small bar which is great fun on a Thursday night if less than sixty people turn up, but sticky and unpleasant if more than sixty people attend. 

There are a hundred people in the town who like the kind of music played in the bar (which is Irish folk rather than Billie Jean). On a Thursday night, do you go to the bar or not?

If you reason that most people will stay away then you should go, but everyone else should reason in the same way and therefore it will be crowded.  Once you’ve realised this you should stay at home and listen to a CD, but if everyone thinks like you then the bar will be empty and you’ll have missed out.  In the same way, if you reason that every Michael Jackson fan will take a refund then you should take the ticket, but they will reason in the same way and there will be a glut of souvenirs, so you should ask for your money back, but then…

So, with the benefit of the hundreds of academic papers from scientists around the world, what should a Times reader who holds a ticket do?  The research tells us that, if you assume everybody else will use the same strategy as you, then the best you can do is to toss a dice: deciding whether or not to keep the ticket according to a probability determined by demand for tickets and price.  However, working out the probability is tough and most fans, without the benefit of minority game theory, won’t be tossing die. 

There is one huge factor in the Michael Jackson problem which isn’t in the standard El Farol bar problem.  Hype.  If the owners of the El Farol bar distributed fliers announcing it was going to be quiet next week, then it would be a safe bet to stay at home with a glass of wine.  So my advice would be to read the newspapers and decide what to do on the basis of the pundits’ advice.  If all the articles you read say the tickets will be collectors’ items then ask for a refund, and if they all accuse AEG of ripping off distraught fans then take the ticket.  It was, after all, designed by Michael Jackson.

Christopher Paley holds a PhD in complex systems from the University of Cambridge

Comments

[Scott]

The singular of dice is die, and the plural is dice.

So one tosses a die, but most fans would toss dice.

You have them reversed.

[Phil]

Die is singular, dice is plural. You toss a die, and you toss dice. You do not toss die, or toss a dice, even with a PhD.

[Julian Manning]

Er... if only a few people decide to take the tickets and they are suddenly worth a fortune, won't AEG still have millions of them to sell??? So they won't be worth a fortune after all.

[crissgoodlookingguy]

I put an idea to AEG Live yesterday to carry on and run the show in the same format with other members of the Jacksons and other artists influenced by Michael Jackson to stand in..

Diana Ross, Ne-yo, Justin Timberlake, The Commodores, The O'Jays, The Jackson Five, Mary J Blige, Jamie Foxx, Stieve Wonder, Janet Jackson, Tyrese, Alicia Keys, Smokey Robinson & Lionel Richie

By the time the 'New' line-up's set they'll actually be people buying MORE ticket's so the value per ticket will go through the roof!

After all i'm sure AEG Live would rather make another £300M than loose £300M!

[Mike]

There is nothing to stop the promoters selling the returned tickets on ebay after everyone has returned them.

[matt]

nice use of mathematical theory in a michael Jackson story .

But one thing about these tickets. AEG have already printed all of them! so they all exist whether people take them or not which means there will be thousands flooding the market even if everyone take the money, as AEG will sell them off themselves just like they did when they sold tickets to online ticket company's for a cut of the much high prices they where charging.

[wayne king]

I paid £75 for my tickets, will my ticket be the same as those who paid less?

[John Mitsianis]

I had this exact discussion with colleagues yesterday. Then we went on eBay and found that Elvis tickets from the 70s were selling for just $60 (that is concerts that actually took place) so probably the best option is a refund.

[Tom]

To Scott and Phil:

Woww...you mastery of english is so good! Now I know that your smarter than a PhD.

[David]

A ridiculous ploy by AEG Live to try to avoid paying refunds. As for the tribute concert, arrange it separately - this is just another way of recouping "lost" money.

[Tony Clarkin]

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to do some good and maybe reverse the slightly tarnished image that Michael Jackson has earned himself.

Proceed with the tribute concerts and ask all involved to donate their profits to setting up The Micheal Jackson Children's Foundation

[Jason Bloomberg]

It seems to me a simple choice -

Take the refund and buy a Jackson album, DVD, or even go and have a good time and raise a glass to his memory.

Or take the 'memorial ticket' and hope to profit through exploiting his death.

I think I know what a true Jackson fan would do.

[Matt]

That would be a good comparison apart from that fact that there are 800,000 tickets sat at AEG, and the fans have the choice of accepting them, but if the fan's don't take them they will still exist, so their "market value" wont decrease, I would bet that already there are AEG employees who have boxes of thousands of them at home, and the printer has probably run a few tens of extra thousands off "just to be safe", I really can't see these being worth a lot of money short or long term.
Also "I would have been there using this piece of paper if he hadn't died" isnt really a great momento is it.

[Ticket Holder]

Interesting question but if you are looking to maximize your memory of Michael, why not take the refund and donate it to a charity he supported. Various blogs and websites are behind this idea (see: The Man in the Mirror Project). I think its a great way to support something Michael Jackson cared about without lining the pockets of some concert promoter.

[MARTIN]

AND IF ALL CURRENT TICKET OWNERS TOOK THE ADVICE IN THIS ARTICLE, THEY WOULD ALL LOSE

[Anthony]

I purchased 4 tickets for the show. I intend to refund 3 and take one ticket as a souvenir if they will allow me to do so. I am disgusted by this tactic of theirs, but not overly surprised.

I won't be profiteering from the ticket, I simply feel it is an important thing for me to have, as a fan.

[Jason]

At York University I got 83% for Game Theory in my Computer Science degree, so all this makes very interesting reading for me. However, you've missed the fact that you are returned the ticket with the refund as as souvenir...

[Pedant]

"Toss a dice" or "tossing die".
Shurely the other way round...

[Jenny South]

There are too many tickets to make them valuable although you will see them on Thiefbay for silly prices being hyped up by shill bidding as are the 20p pieces. And will you tossers leave the dice out of this.

[Julian]

Why can they not give a refund and let you keep the ticket? Why do you have to pay for the ticket????

[MARK C]

The first few hologram tickets are already selling on ebay for £100-£200. Will they continue to sell for this price when the market is flooded with them. Let's face it, the ticket holder can't lose, they can list them on ebay without making the decision about the refund, if they don't sell, they can just take the refund, you have until august to make that decision. People shouldn't feel guilty about making a bit of money, I mean MJ didn't seem too concerned about making a tidy packet out of the tour.

[Mark]

You've just thrown us into an infinite loop of confusion.

If we do what you tell us, and do the opposite of what the press (you) tell us to do, then we will be doing exactly what you told us not to do ... if you know what I mean.

[AAA]

Fans that are outraged at AEG's decision to give tickets out in lieu please sign the official petition against them here

http://www.maximum-jackson.com/comments.html

[Squiffy]

As a TRUE fan, I want my ticket as a souvenier. I would never sell it. It's the only thing I have left of what could have been.

[Stefan Reiter]

To Tony Clarkin...

'Proceed with the tribute concerts and ask all involved to donate their profits to setting up The Micheal Jackson Children's Foundation.'

Seriously, are you joking?

And what type of children do you suggest would be the beneficiaries of this foundation? Victims of sexual abuse perhaps.. So he wasn't found guilty of the first accusation. Don't shoot me, but isn't the only reason it didn't actually make a court room was because he paid $millions to shut the family up, allowed under Californian law at the time?

Childrens foundation indeed. Foulest of ideas!

[philip bull]

i think that they should give a full refund to all and still send you the ticket.....after all its you that have suported this company....if not then people should boycot the company by not buying any concet tickets from them any more ....this would show that you are not going to take anymore of this kind of rip-off anymore .the only way to stop this kind of rip-off is to stick to gether ....after all the company cannot aford to let people boycot as they would go bankrupt. so just think about it ...you people with a recipt you can end up with it all if you play your cards write ...turn the tables back on the company and stick to gether on this ...i promise you that if you all stick to gether then you all will get a refund and the tickets its commem sense realy .

[WattleReptile]

If you had not managed to get hold of some tickets, would you now pay out £75 for somthing that has been cancelled? Probably not. An item generally has value in years to come that is not realised at the time, which makes them rare. Do you really think that they will be rare in a few years .... I think not. I'll be getting my money back.

[John Newbury]

Haven't you heard? No one goes to the El Farol bar any more because it is too crowded!

[Phil]

Tom: It is "you're", not "your". Plus "English", not "english".

Your turn...

[james]

wait wait wait, we can still get the ticket at FULL PRICE? even the ones at the front of block a that were 1k each? they should just give out the damn tickets for free, out of respect

[Lisa]

It seems outrageous what AEG are proposing - tickets are issued to gain entry into an event and the price paid is not for the cost of the ticket! The event has been cancelled so there should be no reason why a ticket-holder cannot have their ticket and a refund.

[Fabio]

How can I possibly keep the tkt if I Bought the VIP tkt for nearly £800.00. They are insane!!!!

[MJ]

Fabio

I paid £800 as well, will they give us the goody bag as well and how who I see to get my money back

as I cant find a website and michaeljacksonlive.com doesnt have a option for refund

[al]

I will be getting my full refund back as soon as the site actually starts allowing us to claim it. Why is it not allowing us to do it when it is saying it is available from 1st July? As far as I am concerned the refund is the best option, not only will it NOT be AEGs preferred ooption but all the thousands of tickets they are left with will be bound to turn up on Ebay for a fraction of the price eventually. Has anyone managed to get a refund yet?

[sarah]

I cant get www.michaeljacksonlive.com to work!!!
how has everyone else got their refunds/ticket souvenires/rip-offs up to now?
has the site worked for anyone yet?

[marty]

hey if you want to get some michael jackson tickets then register at
mjmemorialtickets.webs.com they got 400 still and first come first serve!

[Jake Purches]

This is a con. The Lenticular tickets are being manufactured by a company called 'Lithographix' in California. AEG, who I quoted for, are depending on ticket holders to accept the 'souvenir' tickets so they don't have to pay any money back. Lithographix has printed 900,000 tickets so THEY ARE WORTHLESS!!!
BE WARNED - get your money back.

[Anthony]

I consider myself a true fan, and will be paying £168 for the two tickets I bought. I will frame them and keep them with me forever. It's an incredible amount of money to spend on concert tickets that will never be. But I am fully aware of being conned, just need something tangible to remember what could have been.

[Bong Bung]

His will: what about his fans? we're the ones who worked so we could afford to buy his albums, we should be the executors

[Jessica Margolin]

As Anthony just attested, my hypothesis is that virtually NO ONE is going to ask for a refund. And then the next level comes in: of the people who now own the collectors' item, how many are going to be eager to sell it, and how many are going to keep it themselves as something that's priceless?

Don't game theorists at least PROXY for something other than a financial component to the transaction? A legend is dead! The spiritual value of these tickets is astronomical, and the social value isn't too bad either.

[Jen]

To Al and Sarah
-- Only the link on the homepage for refunds isn't working (convenient?!)
Go to
http://www.michaeljacksonlive.com/refunds.php
and click on whoever you bought your tickets from. Bit much when you have to spend ages trying to work out the site navigation just to get your money (or ticket) back!

[Obama]

If you paid $800 to see Michael Jackson you don't deserve to get your money back.

[Greg]

Those who purchased tickets paid a royalty to see MJ, much the same as paying for a CD that costs pennies to manufacture. Call your credit card company and get them to provide a charge-back for goods not rendered. When enough people do this, the promoters will drop their greedy attitude.

[Charles]

The answer is to get a refund.
The reason? Simple. If one person hangs on to his ticket and the rest get refunds, that one ticket will still be worthless, because AEG will hang on to all of the returned tickets anyway.

[B Inladin]

Anyone who actually thought Wacko was going to be fit enough to play 50 dates would be too stupid to make the right decision

[John]

As far as I know, the tickets have already been printed. Hence, the minority game problem is irrelevent, unless the organisers promise to burn the unclaimed tickets in order to create scarcity for those who do purchase them.

[Sarah]

Thanks Jen!!
I Would Never Have Got On To The Site Myself :)