Comply Or Die hits target

My wife and I helped celebrate a friend’s birthday by visiting a casino on Saturday with the words of a wise old sage who had visited us that morning still ringing in our ears: quit when you are ahead.

The trouble is, that we never got ahead and so, without a meaningful Plan B to fall back on, we ended up learning some expensive lessons with regard to playing roulette and blackjack. At least the free sandwiches were nice.

Fortunately, my ante-post Grand National portfolio has left me in a position where I could now pull up stumps safe in the knowledge that whoever wins on April 5 will guarantee me a profit. My mission to create a “green book” has a much better chance of succeeding after what was a successful, almost sensational, weekend.

The £42.83 placed on Comply Or Die at average odds of 151 is looking inspired after his commanding victory in the totesport Eider Chase at Newcastle. He traded at a low of 21 post-race and, to ensure I can trade from a position of strength, I’ve laid £230 on him at an average of just under 27.

As things stand, I will still scoop more than £500 on Comply And Die should he go on to Aintree glory - with no risk being involved.

It makes sense to offload a lot of my bet on him at this stage because his price is unlikely to contract massively over the next couple of weeks and, secondly, he still has to get there in one piece. I’d imagine that his connections will resist running him at Cheltenham next month and, given his exertions at Newcastle, that would surely be a sensible ploy.

The £47.44 invested on Kelami at average odds of 147 is also looking like good business. He would have won the Racing Post Chase at Kempton had he not bungled the final fence (traded at 1.44 in running) but a narrow defeat behind the progressive Gungadu was a perfectly satisfactory trial.

Kelami is 33-1 to win the National with most of the traditional bookmakers but, given that his trainer has said he will now head straight to Liverpool, those odds look sure to shorten during the next month. On Betfair, surprisingly, there’s £175 on offer to back him at 70. I’m not prepared to give away my bet at that price and will adopt a patient policy. Hopefully, demand for him will pick up as the race creeps closer.

Simon (18.5-19) also ran a good Aintree trial in the Racing Post Chase - he stayed on to finish fourth after getting outpaced - but it seems that his connections cannot make up their mind over what to do next with him. His veteran owner is keen to go straight to Liverpool, which would get my vote, but his trainer seems keen on running him at Cheltenham in a couple of weeks.

In Ireland, Snowy Morning (now 22-25) let down odds-on backers in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse. His jumping lacked fluency and there must be a chance that the second-season chaser will now have his sights lowered. His stablemate, Hedgehunter (40-55), showed more of his old spark to finish runner-up in the race and this Aintree specialist is not one to write off.

I’ve distributed some of the cash laid on Comply Or Die and my latest bets include £29.25 on Bob Hall at 400. This lightly-raced seven-year-old (now trading at 340-580) is unraced much beyond two and a half miles, but he has some very solid form on his CV and stamina has looked the forte of Cane Brake, his brother, who was a staying-on fifth in last year’s Gold Cup.

You can forget Bob Hall’s below-par run at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day because his stable was out of sorts and Jonjo O’Neill, his trainer, has said that the National is on his agenda. He could develop into an interesting outsider.

Matched bets
(average price in brackets and amount staked next to it)
Slim Pickings (25.75) £44.27
Mr Pointment (20.92) £25.99
Simon (19) £8
Bewleys Berry (19.25) £20
Comply Or Die (127.21) £52.81
Parsons Legacy (37.65) £23
Hedgehunter (58.17) £17.73
Philson Run (44) £4.69
DArgent (135.27) £18.96
Kelami (147.31) £47.44
L Ami (90) £2
Beef Or Salmon (160) £5
Bob Hall (400) £29.25
Nadover (450.56) £5
Nine De Sivola (65) £10
Character Building (36) £42.07

Laid bets
Slim Pickings (21) £39.48
Bewleys Berry (18) £9
Comply Or Die (26.87) £229.99
Parsons Legacy (32) £7
Hedgehunter (54.2) £17.73
Philson Run (50) £4
DArgent (84.1) £21.96
Beef Or Salmon (360) £0.06
Nadover (302.9) £5
Character Building (31.27) £22

Current liability: win at least 1 pence regardless of who wins.

Best potential winners:
Bob Hall £11,700
Kelami £6,988
Character Building £826 (non-runner)
Beef Or Salmon £778 (non-runner)
D’Argent £718
Nine De Sivola £650 (non-runner)
Parsons Legacy £642
Mr Pointment £543
Comply Or Die £537
Slim Pickings £310
Bewleys Berry £223
L’Ami £180
Simon £152
Hedgehunter £70