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February 15, 2008

Expect Berry and Bannow to ease

There could well be plenty of movement in the Grand National market on Saturday with a string of Aintree hopefuls in action all over the country.

At Haydock, all eyes will be on the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup Handicap Chase (off at 2.45). This traditional National trial has attracted 17 runners, with 11 being engaged in the big one on April 5.

These include leading fancies such as Bewleys Berry (17-18 on the betting exchanges) and Point Barrow (19-20), but whether either will advance their case is debatable. Bewleys Berry definitely reserves his best for the Grand National fences and, as he is being trained with Liverpool in mind, it will be a surprise if (a) he is fully wound up or (b) subjected to a hard race.

Point Barrow ran better equipped with blinkers last time but it remains to be seen whether the headgear will work again and the drying ground in Lancashire is unlikely to help him. In short, do not be surprised if Bewleys Berry and Point Barrow are trading at bigger prices come Saturday night.

My main fancies for the Haydock race are Philson Run and D’Argent, who dominated the finish of last month’s Classic Chase at Warwick. I’ve had small bets on both going on to glory at Aintree - Philson Run at 44 and D’Argent at a more juicy average of 135. Presumably, the grey is that price because of his inconsistent nature and the fact that his connections have yet to commit him to the race.

Incidentally, if Philson Run does win at Haydock, do not fall into the trap of believing  he will race off the same mark at Aintree. The 12-year-old will have to cope with a 5lb higher rating.

At Wincanton, National contenders Butler’s Cabin, Naunton Brook and Mon Mome meet in the six-runner Country Gentlemen’s Association Limited Handicap Chase (3.10). Butler’s Cabin has been relatively easy to back and should have no excuses this time as the ground looks like being decent and he is re-equipped with cheekpieces. Venetia Williams is keen to run Mon Mome at Aintree and his price (40-42) has been shrinking steadily in recent days.

Finally, at Ascot, Joe Lively (250-470) and Over The Creek (75-90) run in the opening John Smith’s Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (1.15).

Since last publishing on this subject, my portfolio has not changed a great deal. I could not resist having a few pounds on Character Building after his trainer, John Quinn, said it remained a possibility for him. He will make a final decision after his horse has run at Cheltenham next month.

Disappointingly, Nine De Sivola is out for the season and that means my tenner on him has gone west. It could have been much worse, though, had my original stake been matched.

Matched back bets; average price backed in brackets with stake next to it.
Bewleys Berry (16.5) £10
Mr Pointment (25.67) £5.99
Slim Pickings (28) £34.27
Character Building (36) £42.07
Parsons Legacy (42) £13.00
Philson Run (44) £4.69
Comply Or Die (160.48) £4.14
D’Argent (135.27) £18.96
Beef Or Salmon (160) £5
Nadover (450.56) £5
Nine De Sivola (65) £10
Matched Lay Bets
Bewleys Berry (18) £9
Slim Pickings (21) £39.48
Character Building (34) £10
Nadover (302.9) £5
Current exposure: £89.64
Best possible winner: Character Building (£1,036)   

Posted by The Sports on February 15, 2008 in Andy Stephens , Grand National | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Email this post

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