Kelami worth a wager at 150

The brief will-he or won’t-he saga regarding Character Building is over. He won’t. The trainer of my number one hope for National glory has revealed that the grey has pulled a muscle or two and that he will not be back in action until next season.

With another of my main fancies, Nine De Sivola, also on the sidelines, I’m beginning to wonder whether this Grand National Blog is cursed. I shall be asking the editor if it is possible for large quantities of cotton wool to be sent to the stables that house Slim Pickings and Parsons Glory.

Perhaps I’ve been a little soured, but the big race certainly has a bit of a hollow look just now.

The past two winners, Silver Birch and Numbersixvalverde, are also crocked, while none of the top-rated staying chasers in training - Kauto Star, Denman, Exotic Dancer, The Listener and Our Vic - have been entered. Other notable absentees, in addition to Character Building and Nine De Sivola, will be Miko De Beauchene, Halcon Genelardais and Hot Weld.

My mission to create a “green book” remains, though, and I’m just grateful that I took a cautious approach and invested relatively little on my two non-runners.

And it has not been all doom and gloom. The average odds of 135 secured about D’Argent proved good value because I was able to lay back my stake on him at 80 after his gallant fourth in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock last Saturday.

As expected, Bewleys Berry and Point Barrow failed to make much impact in this contest and the pair of them drifted out to 34 post-race before attracting renewed support. Neither should be written off.

The next two horses to catch my eye on the betting exchanges are Kelami and Comply Or Die. I’ve invested £47.44 on the former at average odds of 147 and had £42.83 on the later at 151 in the hope that both run well in their respective engagements on Saturday.

Kelami won at the Cheltenham Festival a few years back and, while he has blown hot and cold since, the French raider should get the good ground that brings out the best in him in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton on Saturday.

He has caught my eye in both his races on these shores this season, figures on a favourable handicap mark and won on his only previous visit to the Sunbury track.

And, should he win or run well, his price for the National seems bound to tumble because Francois Doumen, his trainer, is definitely aiming him at it for a third time (fell when hampered on first occasion and choked last year).

Comply Or Die is entered to run in the Eider Chase at Newcastle and that is all the prompt I need to back him.

David Pipe’s charge was on my National shortlist a couple of years ago after an excellent novice campaign and finishing a close fourth in the Hennessy, but, guess what? He got injured.

He’s had little racing since but he’s still only nine and indicated that he retains plenty of ability when repelling all bar Cloudy Lane in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock on his latest start.

David Pipe’s charge responded well to first-time blinkers/positive tactics that day and there could still be more to come, especially over marathon distances. He will have to carry top weight if he runs at Newcastle but the majority of his rivals are exposed plodders and, if back to something like his peak, he could simply outclass them.

Whatever, I’m hapy to risk him at triple-figure price on the exchange. It looks ubelievable value given that Cloudy Lane, who beat him a couple of lengths at Haydock and would be 4lb worse off should they meet again at Liverpool, is trading at around 15.

Matched bets:
Backed (average price in brackets with stake next to it)
Slim Pickings (28) £34.27
Bewleys Berry (16.5) £10
Mr Pointment (25.67) £5.99
Parsons Legacy (42) £13
Philson Run (44) £4.69
Comply Or Die (151.01) £42.83
DArgent (135.27) £18.96
Kelami (147.31) £47.44
Beef Or Salmon (160) £5
Nadover (450.56) £5
Nine De Sivola (65) £10
Character Building (36) £42.07

Layed
Slim Pickings (21) £39.48
Bewleys Berry (18) £9
Philson Run (50) £4
Comply Or Die (85) £2
DArgent (84.1) £21.96
Nadover (302.9) £5
Character Building (31.27) £22

Current liability £135.81
Best winners Kelami £6,582 and Comply Or Die £6,162.