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February 05, 2008

Bait is there to be bitten

First, the bad news. Character Building’s price has tumbled on Betfair and I haven’t managed to get a penny on. The good news, from a purely selfish point of view, is that it seems his trainer seems to be leaning towards waiting another year before running him at Aintree.

For the time being, then, I’ve scratched my intended punt on Character Building. He’s a top-priced 28 on the exchange and, while that would be attractive if he were an intended runner, it isn’t when he may not even show up for the gig.

Slim Pickings has been trimmed (24 to back and 26 to lay as I type) and I’m settling for a shorter price about Parsons Legacy (£13 matched so far at 42) because Philip Hobbs says that he is the pick of his team. He intends giving him just one more run - in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham - before letting him take his chance in the big one. That will mean he is fresher than most, having had only two previous runs this campaign.

I’ve got two more bits of bait in the water but, at the moment, nobody is biting with regards to my requests for Nine De Sivola (£25 at 44) or Bewleys Berry (£25 at 18).

There’s almost two months until the race and patience can be a virtue but that has not stopped me throwing a fiver at Beef Or Salmon at 160 and Nadover at a whopping 450. The latter has a patchy record and usually runs over two and a half miles but, on the plus side, he’s by Cyborgo (a terrific influence for stamina) and is useful when on song. Also, Charlie Mann has said that he is an intended runner.

The weights are pretty much as expected, although the handicapper clearly does not want Paul Nicholls to end his rotten National record because he has allotted Mr Pointment 11st 8lb. As a consequence, the impressive Becher winner is proving easy to back.

Snowy Morning has been promoted to favourite by the bookmakers but looks dreadful value at 10-1. He was flattered to finish second to Denman in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase at Cheltenham last March and, perhaps more significant, fell early on when making his handicap debut in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury in November. He has not run over fences since.

The bookies have also been universal in trimming Point Barrow and Cloudy Lane but neither, at this stage, feature on my shortlist. The former fell at the first in last year’s National and was equipped with blinkers last time after a series of lacklustre efforts. Cloudy Lane is a more willing character but looks to have stamina limitations.

Matched bets with potential winnings in brackets
Slim Pickings £34.27 at 28 (£925.29)
Parsons Legacy £13 at 42 (£533)
Bewleys Berry £10 at 16.5 (£155)
Beef Or Salmon £5 at 160 (£795)
Nadover £5 at 450.56 ((£2,247.80)
4 pence matched on Comply Or Die at 210 (£8.36)

Posted by The Sports on February 5, 2008 in Andy Stephens , Grand National | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Email this post

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