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February 29, 2008

Has Joe lost his edge?

If the bookmakers are to be believed, there is a 33 per cent chance that the Grand National winner will be in action tomorrow.

Leading market fancies Cloudy Lane (13-13.5 on Betfair) and Mr Pointment (16-17) cross swords in the Coolfun Ltd Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster, where they will be joined by a couple of other Aintree possibles in Joes Edge (30-32) and Ungaro (280-390).

It will be a surprise if one of this quartet does not take the spoils and I fancy that Ungaro and Mr Pointment will enhance their claims by rising to the fore. Ungaro has yet to be committed to the National and could have stamina limitations but, for trading purposes, is interesting at his huge price.

Cloudy Lane runs off a mark of 152 and could struggle off his new rating, but those who have backed him for Aintree can content themselves that he will run off a pitch of 141 in the big race.

Joes Edge will be returning from a lengthy absence and, likely to be sympathetically handled, could easily slide in the market.

About an hour earlier, Mckelvey (22-23), who finished runner-up in last year’s National, will have made his belated return in the three-mile handicap hurdle. He is well treated over timber relative to his form over the bigger obstacles - his mark at Aintree is 14lb higher - but he has been on the sidelines with an injured tendon and his stable is out of sorts. Given his relatively short odds, I’d want proof of his wellbeing before thinking about backing him.

Ossmoses (75-90), another horse on the comeback trail, returns in the veterans’ handicap chase at Newbury (2.40), where Sir Rembrandt (95-100) and Royal Auclair (85-90). This trio have become part of the National Hunt furniture over the years but, however they fare here, Aintree will be a different kettle of fish.

Ollie Magern (400-470) and Milan Deux Mille (370-450) will also be in action on the Newbury card.

Meanwhile, the news regarding Comply Or Die and Kelami remains positive. The former has been pushed up 11lb in the ratings for his win at Newcastle but, of course, will be unpenalised at Liverpool.

Kelami will be 6lb well-in as things stand after his near-miss at Kempton and his trainer’s subsequent comments about him struggling to make the cut look unfounded.

Summary
Beware backing Joes Edge and McKelvey at present odds and there is probably not much yardage in supporting Cloudy Lane and Mr Pointment at present prices. Ungaro is a potential back and lay. So, to a lesser extent, could be Sir Rembrandt.

Bets placed so far
see previous post

 

Posted by The Sports on February 29, 2008 in Andy Stephens , Grand National | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Email this post

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