National formula starts here

Derren Brown may have fallen short on his promise of devising a winning system on the horses but, with hard work and a little bit of good fortune, I’m hoping to make money on this year’s Grand National - regardless of which horse triumphs.

These days, by using Betfair’s ante-post market as a platform, it can be done. By backing and laying at the right time between now and April 3, when the final declarations for the world’s greatest race will be revealed, it is possible to create a “green book”. This guarantees a profit whatever the outcome.

The ante-post National market is just like the stock exchange, with the prices of the 150 horses entered for the race increasing or contracting on an almost daily basis. By anticipating which will attract support or, alternatively, drift, you can create a no-lose scenario.

Of course, it can be a risky business. Back a horse that suffers a setback or runs badly between now and the big race and his price is bound to get bigger. This is like buying a joint of beef for £15 one day and then, a while later, finding you can purchase the same stock for only £2.

Betfair’s ante-post market on the National has been running since last year’s race ended and, so far, £155,000 worth of bets have been matched. On Tuesday, though, betting on the race will step up a gear because the weights will be released at a fancy dinner in London.

Those horses allocated more than 11st will instantly have history against them because, since 1984, only once has a horse carried this weight or more to glory in the Aintree marathon - and that was course specialist Hedgehunter (11st 1lb) in 2005.

It could be dangerous to trust this statistic - handicapper Phil Smith is lenient with his treatment of the better horses these days and it can only be a matter of time before one takes advantage - but, for the time being, it may pay to swerve those who are going to have a big burden. This means ignoring leading market fancies such as Mr Pointment (likely to get 11st 5lb?), Butler’s Cabin (11st 1lb?) and Simon (11st 1lb?) because their prices are unlikely to shrink much in the weeks ahead.

The first four horses that I want to be on, with a view to laying them back at shorter prices, are Character Building (available to back at 38 and to lay at 46), Nine De Sivola (42 to 48), Slim Pickings (27 to 29) and Parsons Legacy (40 to 50).

If I’ve done my sums right, this quartet will all be allotted between 10st 3lb and 10st 10lb and, as such, they could be horses that punters latch on to early. More precisely, I reckon Character Building will be given about 10st 4lb; Nine De Sivola 10st 3lb; Slim Pickings 10st 10lb; and Parsons Legacy 10st 4lb.

These weights are likely to have their respective trainer’s gushing at the weights luncheon - and positive quotes often lead to horses being in demand.

Apart from having handy weights, these four have plenty of other ticks in their boxes.

Character Building is a sound jumper, stays well and boasts solid form. He has had only seven runs over fences and hinted there was still more to come when an encouraging third to Denman in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury in November. His trainer has yet to commit him to the race, but there looks no good reason for him to avoid it.

Nine De Sivola is a maiden over fences who has not run since April but, take away those negatives, and his credentials are solid. Last spring he was a close second in the Scottish Grand National and Irish Grand National, having previously been travelling strongly when falling late on in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. Ferdy Murphy, his trainer, is targeting him at that race again and then, hopefully, all roads will lead to Liverpool.

Slim Pickings finished third in last year’s National, beaten just two lengths. He was having his first race beyond three miles that day and might have won had he been held up a little longer (led five out going well). He is being trained specifically with a repeat bid in mind and it will be a surprise if his price does not shorten.

Parsons Legacy is an honest galloper who has never fallen or unseated his rider in 29 races over jumps. Last spring he was an unlucky loser at the Cheltenham Festival before finishing a close third in the Scottish Grand National. He is the type to appreciate the challenges of Aintree and Philip Hobbs has said that the race is on his agenda.

Two others that I’m prepared to have small bets on at this stage are Comply And Die (110 to 210) and Bewleys Berry (at 16.5). The former is well handicapped to judge by his best form and hinted he was not a lost cause when, wearing blinkers for the first time, he finished runner-up in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock in December. Bewleys Berry boasts rock solid form over the National fences and is a must for any shortlist. His price is unspectacular for trading purposes but, quite simply, I do not want any book with a red figure against his name.

I’ll update the Betting Blog on a regular basis between now and April 3 with more National advice, news and bets. It is an unlikely to be a smooth ride between now and then but here’s hoping for a safe landing.

Bets so far:
£50 on Character Buidling at 46 (unmatched at the time of posting)
£50 on Nine De Sivola at 48 (unmatched)
£50 on Slim Pickings (£34.27 matched at 28; £15.73 unmatched at 29)
£40 on Parsons Legacy at 55 (unmatched)
£10 on Bewleys Berry at 16.5 (matched)
£5 on Comply Or Die at 210 (unmatched)