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March 24, 2008

Fifteen more to ponder

Still not convinced you have found the National winner? Here are pen pics of 15 more possible challengers, with present Betfair odds and a guess at who may be in the saddle.

PHILSON RUN (36-40): Lightly raced for a 12-year-old (has had only 16 runs) and good record in races where stamina/jumping is at a premium. Put a first-fence fall behind him in the 2006 Becher Chase when fine fourth in this last year (faded late on). Only 1lb higher in the ratings this year and his reappearance run at Warwick, when beating all bar D’Argent in the Classic Chase, suggests he has lost none of his ability. Brought down at Haydock on his latest start and, given his hold-up style, likely to need more luck in running than most. (Daryl Jacob)

HEDGEHUNTER (40-46): Established as part of the Grand National furniture after running in past four renewals. Made a bold bid in 2004 (fell last after being ridden close to a strong pace) and then an emphatic winner in 2005 when more patiently ridden. Gallant second off 16lb higher mark (carried top weight) 12 months later, when might have won had the ground not been soft. Did not make much impact in last year’s race after a troubled preparation. Seems to have been brought along steadily this term and showed more of old sparkle latest, but Father Time on his shoulder and, considering he has not won for three years, still has plenty of weight to shoulder. Runs off same mark as in past two runnings. (David Casey)

MON MOME (40-44): Winless since landing a novice handicap at this meeting two years ago but ran well in string of top staying handicap chases last term - especially when second in the Welsh National (behind Halcon Generlardais) and Classic Chase (behind Ladalko). Did not reappear until February this campaign and yet to recapture his best, though seemed to finish with petrol in the tank when sixth in the William Hill Chase at Cheltenham latest. Trip should not be a problem, although the fences (can still make the odd howler, as he did when pulled up at Wincanton on return) could be a different matter. (Liam Treadwell)

D’ARGENT (44-46): Useful staying chaser on his day, but consistency not a strong suit and has reserved his best performances for Warwick and Uttoxeter. Has put up solid efforts on his past two starts, though, proving too strong for Philson Run in the Classic Chase at Warwick in January (6lb higher here) before finishing creditable fourth in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock. Capable of making presence felt if taking to the fences (can make odd blunder) and, being a grey, among the easier to identify. Usually races up with pace; wears blinkers and acts on any ground. (Robert Thornton)

JOES EDGE (42-44): Scottish National and Cheltenham Festival wins on his CV but this has not been a lucky race for him. Blundered his way round when remote seventh in 2006 (going too soft for him) before getting struck into and pulling up when a leading fancy last year (was officially 9lb well in). Been trained with another tilt in mind but unshipped jockey on belated return and well held (again on softish going) in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham this month. Needs to raise his game and good ground seems vital to him. (Graham Lee?)

KNOWHERE (60-75): Put up a personal best to take the scalps of Our Vic and Neptune Collonges in valuable chase at Cheltenham in January but cards fell in his favour that day and has since finished well held in the Gold Cup. Jumping has also betrayed him over orthodox fences and no great surprise that he failed to complete in this last year (unseated rider early on at 100-1 off 10lb lower mark). Also, even if jumping round, he will have to prove his stamina. Others look much more solid. (Paddy Brennan)

NAUNTON BROOK (70-95): Front-runner is at his best when able to dominate and has run well in some of this season’s top staying handicap chases. Usual scenario is that he sets the race up for a more patiently-ridden rival, though, and was pulled up in this last year (when 4lb lower) after being up with the leaders until past halfway. Also, has to be forgiven a sulky effort in the Midlands National last time when unable to lead. (David England)

OVER THE CREEK (70-170): One-time smart hurdler and useful second-season (novice) chaser. Came of age when winning big handicap chase at Cheltenham in November (had such as Simon, Kelami and L’Ami behind off 8lb lower mark) and, since then, has finished good third in Welsh National and runner-up in National Hunt Chase back at Prestbury Park. Owner also has Comply Or Die, so could keep him to novice route.(J W Farrelly?)

KELAMI (75-90): Form has been a little patchy over the years and, like his brother/stablemate, L'Ami, has not won the races that his ability merits (four wins from 42 starts). On the plus side, he is only 6lb higher than when winning at the Cheltenham Festival three years ago and is able to race off the same rating as when an unlucky second to Gungadu in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton last month (rare error at the last halted his momentum). Definite prospects of staying (proven at up to 3 miles 5 furlongs) and stable’s horses all ran terrific races at Cheltenham last month. Seems suited by good going and should be forgiven previous lapses in this race (fell in 2005 when lacking experience and swallowed tongue last year). Likely jockey is 15-times champion in France but no Aintree experience. (Christophe Pieux)

ROYAL AUCLAIR (90-110): Distant runner-up to Hedgehunter in this race three years but fanciful to think he will fare so well again because he is not the force of old and was again quickly done with in the cross-country chase at Cheltenham on his latest start. Likely to complete but in his own time. (Liam Heard)

VODKA BLEU (90-100): Looked resurgent when winning decent prizes at Ascot and Cheltenham in mid-season but has never indicated that he wants an extreme test such as this and benefit of wearing blinkers seems to be wearing off to judge by his moody displays past two starts. Easy to look elsewhere. (?)

MADISON DU BERLAIS (180-200): Tough, reliable sort as shown by past two handicap runs. Kept on when fourth to Denman on heavy going in the Hennessy and then beat all bar stablemate Vodka Bleu on fast ground in the Silver Cup at Ascot. Would be 13lb better off with that rival here. Trip is a question mark and probably weighted up to his best form but he is a trier and there will be worse outsiders. (Tom Scudamore)

CORNISH REBEL (230-280): Paul Nicholls has had one National winner slip through his fingers (Silver Birch) but this is unlikely to be a second. Has long been a tricky/quirky character and dropping to hunter chase company has not helped him regain win thread. Well held when trying his luck in this in 2006. (?)

OLLIE MAGERN (340-430): Front-runner has been a good servant to stable but seems at his best when fresh these days and has not really built on comeback win in Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in October. Showed typical dash in William Hill Chase at Cheltenham latest but got weary from two out and faded out of contention. Likely to be similar tale here. (?)

BOB HALL (450-870): Likeable type but past two efforts take some explaining and has yet to prove his effectiveness beyond 2 and a half miles. Those seduced by big odds, though, will take heart from the fact that he figures on a favourable mark (his close third to Knowhere and Maljimar at Cheltenham in October reads well) and that Cane Brake, his full brother, was a staying-on fifth in last season's Gold Cup. (Noel Fehily?)

Posted by The Sports on March 24, 2008 in Andy Stephens , Grand National | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Email this post

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