Madison catches eye at 160

With only another ten defectors at the latest forfeit stage, the prospect of fancied horses failing to make the cut for the Grand National has increased.

As things stand, all those horses below Tumbling Dice (10st 10lb) are not guaranteed a run and that could signal bad news for such as Philson Run (52nd on the list), Joes Edge (56th), Longshanks (61) and Ossmoses (62). The bottom weight carried is likely to be 10st 5lb or 10st 6lb, making the race something of a limited handicap.

A surprise withdrawal  was Parsons Glory, whose injury problems were, for once, not telegraphed on the betting exchanges. Given decent ground, the ten-year-old would surely have been a live contender. He was a £500-plus winner in my ante-post book but only cost me £11 to create that position.

Between now and the big race the market leaders tend to contract, although there is still plenty of time for injury or bad luck to  play a part.

If you shop around,  there are still possible bargains lurking on Betfair. Bemused by Kelami’s price standing up, I invested another £30 on him at 80, which I duly laid back at 70 soon after.

Another sleeper, perhaps, is Madison Du Berlais (150-200), who I’ve had  £31.88 on at 160. This tough, reliable sort has already run well in a couple of big staying handicap chases this term and his price seems certain to shrink provided that David Pipe gives him the green light to run.

Madison Du Berlais stayed on well when fourth to Denman in the Hennessy in November and made a gallant bid to give 20lb to Vodka Bleu, his stablemate, in the Silver Cup at Ascot the following month.

Tom Scudamore, his usual jockey, has said that he thinks that the demands of Aintree will suit him.
I’ve also had a couple of £4 bets on possible Irish contenders Black Apalachi (at 200) and Homer Wells  (195). The latter is now trading at 330, so this is not the best bit of business that I’ve ever done.

For full list of bets struck, see previous post.