The Grand National - a full guide

The end game is near with regards to my trading on the 161st running of the Grand National. Since last posting I’ve topped up my bets on various horses such as Kelami (which I’ve laid back at shorter odds) and Madison Du Berlais (nobody else seems interested in backing him and perhaps somebody knows more than I do about whether he is going to run), plus I’ve distributed bits and bobs of cash on new faces.

As things stand I’m guaranteed a decent green book and, provided I don’t get any sudden rushes of blood in the next week, it should stay that way. Below are pen pictures of the top 57 in the National weights for those searching for the winner. Those lower in the list will be struggling to make the cut.

HEDGEHUNTER: Established as part of the Grand National furniture after running in past four renewals. Made a bold bid in 2004 (fell last after being ridden close to a strong pace) and then an emphatic winner in 2005 when more patiently ridden. Gallant second off 16lb higher mark (carried top weight) 12 months later, when might have won had the ground not been soft. Did not make much impact in last year’s race after a troubled preparation. Seems to have been brought along steadily this term and showed more of old sparkle latest, but Father Time on his shoulder and, considering he has not won for three years, still has plenty of weight to carry.
HI CLOY: Enjoyed his finest hour when landing the Melling Chase over two and a half miles at this meeting two years ago but that looks his optimum trip and diffcult to believe he will stay anything like this far.
KNOWHERE: Put up a personal best to take the scalps of Our Vic and Neptune Collonges in valuable chase at Cheltenham in January but cards fell in his favour that day and has since finished well held in the Gold Cup. Jumping has also betrayed him over orthodox fences and no great surprise that he failed to complete in this last year (unseated rider early on at 100-1 off 10lb lower mark). Also, even if jumping round, he will have to prove his stamina. Others look much more solid.
MR POINTMENT: Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has a dismal record in the big race (only six of his 36 runners have completed) but this second-season chaser, who was with Charlie Egerton last term, relished the unique National fences when beating Bewleys Berry (3lb better off) by a length in the Becher Chase here in November. That was only his fifth start over fences and so not out of the question that he could improve further and defy a 9lb rise but, worryingly, he weakened quickly when fluffing his lines in what was his prep race at Doncaster this month. Connections were quick to diagnose a burst blood vessel and, while it is not out of the question for Mr Pointment to bounce back, that weakness has to be a concern.
OLLIE MAGERN: Front-runner has been a good servant to stable but seems at his best when fresh and has not really built on comeback win in Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in October. Showed typical dash in William Hill Chase at Cheltenham latest but got weary from two out and faded out of contention. Likely to be similar tale here.
TURKO: Let down by his jumping in the top novice chases last spring but been hard to fault this term - finishing third behind Our Vic and Mossbank in the Ryanair Chase on his latest start, having previously split The Listener and Snowy Morning (would be 9lb better off) in the Irish Gold Cup. Clearly a smart performer, but youngster would have a big weight to carry and stamina far from guaranteed.
MADISON DU BERLAIS: Tough, reliable sort as shown by past two handicap runs. Kept on when fourth to Denman on heavy going in the Hennessy and then beat all bar stablemate Vodka Bleu on fast ground in the Silver Cup at Ascot. Would be 13lb better off with that rival here. Trip is a question mark and probably weighted up to his best form but he is a trier and there will be worse outsiders.
BILLYVODDAN: Had his supporters last year (started at 16-1 off a 1lb lower mark) but waved the white flag early on (eventually pulled up before nineteenth). His attitude has definitely been an issue this term, again showing little interest when trailing home last of nine in the Ryanair Chase on his latest start. Best left alone.
KNIGHT LEGEND: His jumping has let him down on numerous occasions, but much more assured of late and that helped him run as well as he’s ever done when fourth (beaten a dozen lengths) in the Ryanair Chase on his latest start. However, even if putting in a clear round, he’s got his share of weight and unproven much beyond three miles.
SIMON: Thrived in races that demanded stamina last season and was going well in the National itself, up with the pace, when exiting six out. Sound jumper on the whole and has continued on the up this campaign - recording solid runs in defeat at Cheltenham and Kempton when crying out for farther on each occasion. Is 8lb higher in the ratings than 12 months ago and will have to do without the services of regular jockey Andrew Thornton (injured), but big run on the cards as he seems happy on any ground.
OPERA MUNDI: Scopey sort developed well enough as a novice last term and upped his game when digging deep to win decent three-mile contest at Haydock on his return (Cloudy Lane back in fifth and would be 1lb worse off). Enjoyed the soft going that day and it seems important to him to judge by his subsequent flop, on good ground, in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster. Ability to stay this far is a question mark and connections have warned that he will not run unless mud is flying.
UNGARO: non-runner states trainer.
IRON MAN: Did little more than help make up the numbers in the Gold Cup this month and, given his stamina limitations and form since the autumn, difficult to see him making much more impact in this. Has failed to complete on both previous attempts over the Grand National fences, too.
FUNDAMENTALIST: Victory in the Royal & SunAlliance Hurdle in 2004 remains highlight of his career. Career over fences has been held back by jumping mistakes, although hard to fault in that department when twice running creditably at Cheltenham Festival this month. Entitled to be jaded after those runs, though, and stamina also looks big issue.
BUTLER’S CABIN: Thrived when upped in distance last spring - winning a strong renewal of the National Hunt Chase (4m 1f) at Cheltenham before following up in the Irish Grand National. Finished distressed on each occasion, though, and has not looked in love with the game this campaign - running poorly at Sandown before looking most reluctant at Wincanton. Hard to enthuse about him after those efforts but a possible chink of light is that the unusual National fences can be a stimulation. Seems at his most effective on good going.
SLIM PICKINGS: Ran a blinder in last year’s race when two lengths third to Silver Birch and would have gone even closer but for errors at final two fences. Has to cope with a 7lb higher mark this time and horses placed in the National rarely come back and win it, but trained specifically for another crack at the race (been kept ticking over with runs over hurdles/inadequate trips) and no surprise if he makes another bold bid.
CHELSEA HARBOUR: This is a horse you can read two ways. On the plus side, he earns ticks for stamina (stayed on well when winning over three and a half mile miles on bad ground at Punchestown in February) and wellbeing (staying-on fifth over inadequate trip at Leopardstown on his latest start). On the minus side, his jumping did not stand up in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase or Irish National last season, and another negative is that he’s badly treated, at the weights, relative to some of the other Irish contenders. For instance, he received 9lb from Slim Pickings at Leopardstown last time and yet, at Aintree, will get only 1lb.
VODKA BLEU: Looked resurgent when winning decent prizes at Ascot and Cheltenham in mid-season but has never indicated that he wants an extreme test such as this and benefit of wearing blinkers seems to be wearing off to judge by his moody displays past two starts. Easy to look elsewhere.
L’AMI: His record of three wins from 36 starts is a poor return for a horse of his ability but does mask the fact that he has run well at the highest level on several occasions, including in the Gold Cup in 2006 and 2007. Has raced exclusively in handicap company this term and hinted that he could take advantage of a slipping mark when close third in the William Hill Chase at Cheltenham last month. However, subjected to a hard race that day and did not seem to get home when trailing home a weary tenth in this last year, albeit off a 9lb higher mark.
SNOWY MORNING: Won three races as a novice last term and his ten-length second to Denman in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase makes him theoretically well in, as does his third in the Irish Gold Cup in February. Seems to stay well enough but his jumping is a big worry. Fell early on in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup in November; made a blunder in the Irish Gold Cup that he would not have got away with at Aintree; and was sticky on his latest start when a below-par third. Could do with Ruby Walsh, who has an excellent record over the big fences, committing to the ride.
ALEXANDER TAIPAN: Sadly took a fatal fall in the Irish National on Monday.
BEWLEYS BERRY: Pulled up some way out on his latest start at Haydock but probably best not to read too much into that as the situation was quickly accepted and his trainer had given warning beforehand that he would need the run. Targeted at this all season and no surprise as he was going zestfully in the lead when falling at Becher’s on the second circuit in last year’s race. Three of the past ten winners of this have gone on to glory after previously falling in the race and he was none the worse for that experience when runner-up in the Becher Chase (for a second time) here in November, finding Mr Pointment (now 3lb worse off) a bit too strong. Stable enjoyed big double at Cheltenham Festival to allay fears over wellbeing of yard’s horses.
CONTRABAND: Won the Arkle in his prime but little more than a plaything for his new owner after changing hands relatively cheaply last spring. Beat one (lame) rival home in the Champion Hurdle on belated return before being pulled up in the Gold Cup three days later.
McKELVEY: Not always been the easiest to predict but ran a stormer off an 8lb lower mark in this last year - staying on well from off the pace to split Silver Birch and Slim Pickings. Suffered a tendon injury in the process, though, and difficult to know how much ability he retains after two heavy defeats over hurdles this month. He’s probably better over fences but worth remembering that he limbered up for last year’s National with a determined success over the smaller obstacles. Others more appealing.
JOAACI: Spoken of as a possible Gold Cup horse when winning at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day in 2006 but has not won over fences since then. Temperament has definitely been a factor in him failing to realise his potential and surrendered tamely over hurdles on latest start. Aintree is no place for the half-hearted.
POINT BARROW: Won the Irish Grand National two years ago and proved his big-race pedigree by landing Pierse Chase last season. However, he has struggled a bit since that success 15 months ago and equipping him with blinkers has not helped him regain win thread. Disappointing he could finish only third in a minor event latest where he was favoured by the weights (finished behind Dun Doire and now 6lb worse off with that rival) and, before that, had capitulated quickly at Haydock. Others more convincing.
CORNISH REBEL: Paul Nicholls has had one National winner slip through his fingers (Silver Birch) but this is unlikely to be a second. Has long been a tricky/quirky character and dropping to hunter chase company has not helped him regain win thread. Well held when trying his luck in this in 2006.
D’ARGENT: Useful staying chaser on his day who bids to become only the third grey to win the race. Consistency has been an issue in the past but has put up solid efforts on his past two starts,  proving too strong for Philson Run in the Classic Chase at Warwick in January (6lb higher here) before finishing creditable fourth in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock. Capable of making presence felt if taking to the fences (can make odd blunder) and usually races up with pace. Wears blinkers and acts on any ground.
NO FULL: Two wins from 25 starts indicates that he is not the most prolific and his best form to date has been up to three miles. Run out of puff close home when good third in the Paddy Power Chase in December but pulled up latest on his first start for new yard.
BAILY BREEZE: Past two runs have lacked any kind of sparkle and, even if back on song, seems best at up to three miles when able to dominate.
BOB HALL: Likeable type but past two efforts take some explaining and has yet to prove his effectiveness beyond 2 and a half miles. Those seduced by big odds, though, will take heart from the fact that he figures on a favourable mark (his close third to Knowhere and Maljimar at Cheltenham in October reads well) and that Cane Brake, his full brother, was a staying-on fifth in last season's Gold Cup.
CLOUDY LANE: Trained by Donald McCain, son of Ginger, famous for his exploits with Red Rum in this race. Been a buzz horse since the weights were published last month and, after successive wins at Ayr and Doncaster, is officially 20lb well in. His best piece of form, though, is his defeat of Comply Or Die and High Chimes at Haydock in December, which has worked out a treat. Nimble jumper and acts on any going, but unproven beyond three and a quarter miles and does have big stamina question to answer. Folded tamely in last season’s Red Square Vodka Gold Cup Chase (over 3 miles and 5 furlongs) and also on retreat when unseating rider in Irish Grand National. See separate post on Cloudy Lane - will he stay?
KING JOHNS CASTLE: Some useful form on his CV and took advantage of lower mark over hurdles latest. Was a significant market mover today (totesport clipped him to 16-1 from 28-1) amid speculation that Tony McCoy would choose him instead of Butler’s Cabin and L’Ami. However, trip is a big worry as every  National winner since Gay Trip (1970) had previously won over three miles or farther. King Johns Castle has not got that tick in his box and, moreover, has not always looked the most resolute in a finish. Bled on his final start last season, too, so I’m happy content to have missed the plunge.
MON MOME: Winless since landing a novice handicap at this meeting two years ago but ran well in string of top staying handicap chases last term - especially when second in the Welsh National (behind Halcon Generlardais) and Classic Chase (behind Ladalko). Did not reappear until February this campaign and yet to recapture his best, though seemed to finish with petrol in the tank when sixth in the William Hill Chase at Cheltenham latest. Trip should not be a problem, although the fences (can still make the odd howler, as he did when pulled up at Wincanton on return) could be a different matter.
ALWAYS WAINING: Not the biggest and was not in much form when last seen - running poorly on New Year’s Day after finishing modest eighth in the Hennessy (when tried in cheekpieces). Stamina also a big doubt, even if returning back on song.
CORNIGH SETT: Able to race off a mark 4lb lower than when chasing home Sir Rembrandt in the Servo Chase at Cheltenham in November (had such as Simon and L’Ami behind) but downed tools at same track next time (he’s quirky) before finishing last of eight in the Welsh National. Did not seem to last home that day, as was the case in last season’s Betfred Gold Cup.
NAUNTON BROOK: Front-runner is at his best when able to dominate and has run well in some of this season’s top staying handicap chases. Usual scenario is that he sets the race up for a more patiently-ridden rival, though, and was pulled up in this last year (when 4lb lower) after being up with the leaders until past halfway. Also, has to be forgiven a sulky effort in the Midlands National last time when unable to lead.
OVER THE CREEK: One-time smart hurdler who has developed into a useful second-season (novice) chaser this campaign. Came of age when winning big handicap chase at Cheltenham in November (had such as Simon, Kelami and L’Ami behind off 8lb lower mark) and, since then, has finished good third in Welsh National and runner-up in National Hunt Chase back at Prestbury Park. In the same ownership as Comply Or Die so could miss the race and stick to novice company?
PATSY HALL: His efforts as a novice last season included a convincing defeat of Aces Four at Cheltenham and back to something like that form when fourth in this month’s three-mile William Hill Chase. Disconcerting that he weakened up the hill that day - he had nosed ahead going to the last - but he was having first run since November and possibly just needed it? His dam is by Roselier and so there is stamina in his pedigree.
ROYAL AUCLAIR: Distant runner-up to Hedgehunter in this race three years but fanciful to think he will fare so well again because he is not the force of old and was again quickly done with in the cross-country chase at Cheltenham on his latest start. Likely to complete but in his own time.
ROYAL COUNTY STAR: Unlikely starter after finishing runner-up in the Irish National on Monday. He was betrayed by suspect stamina there so, even if taking chance, is an unlikely winner.
TUMBLING DICE: Tends to blow hot/cold, with his poor runs outnumbering his good ones this season. Highly unlikely to stay this far (usually runs between two miles and three miles) even if in willing mood.
BACKBEAT: Failed to take advantage of lenient mark over hurdles latest but had previously won a well-run handicap at Sandown in tidy style. That has not proved especially strong form, though, and now finds himself in much stronger race off an 8lb higher mark. Unproven beyond three miles, though breeding offers some encouragement.
COMPLY OR DIE: Leading staying novice in 2005-6 (runner up to Trabolgan in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase) and was a close fourth, off a mark of 146, in the 2006 Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup (again behind Trabolgan). Has had injury problems since and did not see a racecourse last term but time still on his side and past two efforts suggest he retains all his ability. Runner-up to Cloudy Lane (who will be 4lb worse off) over three miles at Haydock on his penultimate start and then, after the weights for this were published, carried top weight to a fluent success in the Eider Chase at Newcastle over four miles and a furlong. Went a long way towards proving his stamina that day and officially 11lb well in. Sound jumper and seems to act on any going.
IDLE TALK: Finished runner-up in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase two years ago but has been pretty disappointing since and surprise if he makes amends for unseating his rider at the nineteenth last year when struggling to make an impression. Fact that he would run off a 9lb lower mark illustrates that he’s not set pulse racing since.
KELAMI: Form has been a little patchy over the years and, like his brother/stablemate, L’Ami, has not won the races that his ability merits (four wins from 42 starts). On the plus side, though, he is only 6lb higher than when winning at the Cheltenham Festival three years ago and is able to race off the same rating as when an unlucky second to Gungadu in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton last month (rare error at the last halted his momentum). Definite prospects of staying (proven at up to 3 miles 5 furlongs) and stable’s horses all ran terrific races at Cheltenham last month. Seems suited by good going and should be forgiven previous lapses in this race (brought down at first in 2004 and swallowed tongue last year). Likely jockey is 15-times champion in France but no Aintree experience.
MILAN DEAUX MILLE: Coped well with the Grand National fences when fifth in last year’s Topham Chase and is 3lb lower here, but looks a highly unlikely stayer and ran badly when returning to chasing on his latest start after a couple of spins over hurdles.
NADOVER: Has given his supporters little to cheer since winning at Chepstow over Christmas (is 8lb higher here) and again seemed to throw in the towel latest. Even if consenting to roll up his sleeves, has it all to do/prove.
BLACK APALACHI: Grade two winner over hurdles who has found life tough over fences since landing the Paddy Power Chase in 2005. Is unexposed over long distances, though, and, as stamina has looked his strong suit, could raise a few eyebrows. Finished runner-up in the Thyestes Chase when tried in blinkers on penultimate start, when Point Barrow (would be 6lb better off) and Chelsea Harbour (would be 3lb worse off) were behind. Latest effort probably best excused as headgear was left off.
HOMER WELLS: Looks a most unlikely starter after making little impact in Monday’s Irish National.
PATMAN DU CHARMIL: Bold-jumping front-runner has run creditably in several competitive handicaps over two and a half miles at Cheltenham this season but he’s not managed to win one and prospects of him putting the record straight over this trip look extremely slim.
PHILSON RUN: Lightly raced for a 12-year-old (has had only 16 runs) and good record in races where stamina/jumping is at a premium. Put a first-fence fall behind him in the 2006 Becher Chase when fine fourth in this last year (faded late on). Only 1lb higher in the ratings this year and his reappearance run at Warwick, when beating all bar D’Argent in the Classic Chase, suggests he has lost none of his ability. Brought down at Haydock on his latest start and, given his hold-up style, likely to need more luck in running than most.
URSUMANN: Seemed badly out of sorts when last in action and has been on the sidelines since September. Trip would represent an unknown quantity and unlikely to get fast going he favours, either.
ARDAGHEY: Looked set for good season when winning on reappearance at Cheltenham in October (Mr Pointment among those behind) but nothing to shout about sibnce then and unlikely to change the script here with stamina and jumping also being issues.
DUN DOIRE: His purple patch the season before last is fading from memory and disappointing that he could not beat an inferior rival in minor contest on his latest start. His record over the National fences also gives cause for concern.  Fell at the Chair in 2006 Becher Chase and did not seem to enjoy himself when pulled up in last year’s big race.
IN THE HIGH GRASS: Had been fighting a losing battle against the handicapper before winning minor four-runner contest at Cork recently. Proved his stamina for at least three miles that day but will find this a different kettle of fish.
JOES EDGE: Scottish National and Cheltenham Festival wins on his CV but this has not been a lucky race for him. Blundered his way round when remote seventh in 2006 (going too soft for him) before getting struck into and pulling up when a leading fancy last year (was officially 9lb well in). Been trained with another tilt in mind but unshipped jockey on belated return and well held (again on softish going) in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham this month. Needs to raise his game and good ground seems vital to him.

Best winners in my ante-post book on Betfair (rounded up to nearest pound)

Madison Du Berlais £10,135
Comply Or Die £1,252
Black Apalachi £1,230
Bob Hall £883
Homer Wells £845
Nadover £803
Simon £557
Kelami £537
Bewleys Berry £452
D’Argent £376
Slim Pickings £297
Mr Pointment £285
Chelsea Harbour £243
Patsy Hall £228
Over The Creek £195
Philson Run £183
Butler’s Cabin £173
Royal Auclair £155
Hedgehunter £135
Mon Mome £125
Snowy Morning £123
Point Barrow £117

Liability: none. Stand to win at least £65 whoever wins the race.

Comments

[Joe]

Nice review Andy!

I'm am very undecided this year (as always) but hopefully it'll proveto be a good contest. Plent of trading opportunities though so can't complain!

Joe
www.fourthewin.com/blog.htm

[Winner]

You have left out Mckelvey what if he wins?

I have 2 bets Comply or Die and Mckelvey

Best winners any 4,000
best placed any 1,000 1,2,3,4,5

Liability €415

[andy stephens]

Dear Mr Winner,
you suggest that I left out McKelvey but I think you will find he is included - between Contraband and Joaaci. You posted on April 1, so perhaps I've fallen into your trap. Good luck with your bets. To save you searching - and I apologise for typing so many words - here are my thoughts on McKelvey.
regards,
Andy

McKELVEY: Not always been the easiest to predict but ran a stormer off an 8lb lower mark in this last year - staying on well from off the pace to split Silver Birch and Slim Pickings. Suffered a tendon injury in the process, though, and difficult to know how much ability he retains after two heavy defeats over hurdles this month. He’s probably better over fences but worth remembering that he limbered up for last year’s National with a determined success over the smaller obstacles. Others more appealing.