Here's hoping for a win bug

It has been a testing few days in the Stephens household. A tummy bug has taken its toll on the whole family and, to compound matters, our wireless internet connection has been misbehaving - meaning I’ve been unable to keep up with betting activity on the exchanges.

I was in such a distressed state on Sunday night that Monday passed by in a blur and it was only around Tuesday lunch-time that I staggered downstairs to see that 99 had been left in the Grand National. You have to feel a degree of sympathy for the connections of Longshanks and Ossmoses (who would have been live outsiders) when no-hopers such as Hi Cloy, Contraband and Milan Deux Mille remain possible contenders.

The good news is that the virus in our yard seems to be lifting - allegations of some dodgy feed provided by Mrs Stephens have proved unfounded - and our internet access is, finally, back. The kids have retreated back to their respective rooms with their laptops, thus halting the neighbours from betting on which one could scream the louder in an argument.

Since last posting, I got carried away with backing Madison Du Berlais - staking almost £200 on him at average odds of 192. My thinking was that his odds would half once people realised he was a definite runner with Tom Scudamore in the saddle. However, the price of Madison Du Berlais has held up and it’s been a struggle laying him back. He is still overpriced but others hold much stronger claims.

I’m pulling up stumps now with regard to Betfair’s ante-post market: (a) because I want to concentrate on Thursday and Friday’s action at Aintree and (b) the win percentage on the back side is proving steady at around 113 per cent. The on-day market will offer better value with the win percentage unlikely to be any higher than 105 per cent.

The green book that I pursued has been achieved with a win for Comply Or Die, Simon, Bewleys Berry or Kelami - who I prefer in that order - guaranteeing a £1,000 payout. Here's hoping that the quartet stay fit and healthy between now and Saturday. Below are my best winners with my matched win/lay bets.

Best winners (rounded up to nearest £1)

Kelami £1,103

Bewleys Berry £1,037

Comply Or Die £1,032

Simon £1,011

Bob Hall £819

Nadover £739

Madison Du Berlais £684

Hedgehunter £539

Black Appalachi £519

Slim Pickings £516

Mr Pointment £511

Backbeat £366

Philson Run £199

D’Argent £192

Opra Mundi £166

Mon Mome £145

Longshanks £131

Chelsea Harbour £244

Point Barrow £57

Cloudy Lane £42

L’Ami £20

Snowy Morning £10

Joacci £10

Butler’s Cabin £8

Any other horse £1

MATCHED WIN BETS (average price in brackets followed by stake)

Cloudy Lane (7) £6

Comply Or Die (56.14) £147.20

Slim Pickings (20.47) £84.46

Simon (16.19) £100.45

Chelsea Harbour (25.61) £32.23

Bewleys Berry (21) £116.93

Butlers Cabin (27) £4

Mr Pointment (24.41) £55.99

Snowy Morning (29) £2

Point Barrow 24.11 (£9)

Hedgehunter (48.8) £30.73

Philson Run (43.39) £11.02

L Ami (90) £2

Mon Mome (48) £3

D'Argent (104.17) £28.97

Kelami (93.84) £162.96

Black Appalachi (85.13) £64.78

Joaaci (95) £2

Backbeat (182.5) £2

Longshanks (130) £1

Madison Du Berlais (192.1) £194.57

Opera Mundi (520) (£2)

Nadover (450.56) £5

Bob Hall (398.09) £31.45

Beef Or Salmon NR £5

Character Building NR £42.07

Homer Wells NR £4

Kilbeggan Blade NR £8.97

Monkerhostin NR £22.65

Nine De Sivola NR £10

Over The Creek NR £2

Parsons Legacy NR £38

Patsy Hall NR £3.88

Royal Auclair NR £6

Sir Rembrandt NR £2

Ungaro NR £6

TOTAL STAKE OF MATCHED BETS: £1,250.31

(minus £1 if Longshanks is balloted out)

LAYED BETS

Comply Or Die (23.71) £304.99

Slim Pickings (19.4) £62.48

Simon (16.21) £38

Chelsea Harbour (27.74) £21

Bewleys Berry (19.98) £71

Butlers Cabin (20) £5

Mr Pointment (31.65) £27.10

Snowy Morning (24) £2

Point Barrow (22.97) £7

Hedgehunter (54.2) £17.73

Philson Run (46.67) £6

L Ami (80) £2

Dargent (65.8) £42.96

Kelami (55.74) £254.57

Black Appalachi (74.95) £66.68

Joaaci (90) £2

Madison Du Berlais (192.72) £190.42

Opera Mundi (437.5) £2

Nadover (302.9) £5

Bob Hall (403.52) £29

Beef Or Salmon NR £0.06

Character Building NR £22

Kilbeggan Blade NR £6.33

Monkerhostin NR £25

Parsons Legacy NR £27

Royal Auclair NR £3

Ungaro NR £10

TOTAL OF LAYED BETS: £1,250.32

Liability on all bets: none, win at least £1 whoever wins.