A tip for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray customers: don't buy until 2008

For those of you who've already purchased a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD player, you may want to look away now. Why's that? Well, the price of these next-generation video players is about to fall dramatically, so far in fact that you'll soon be able to pick up a perfectly fine model for under £100.

According to UK media consultancy Understanding and Solutions, by Christmas 2008, HD-DVD players and Blu-Ray players will carry an average retail price of £137 and £237 respectively. A quick scan of Amazon.co.uk, shows average prices today close to double that (though you can find low-end models approaching £150 pounds and £250 respectively).

What's triggering the plummeting price is a vicious price war as the two camps -- HD-DVD, backed by Toshiba and Microsoft and Blu-Ray, backed by Sony -- try to knock off the rival technology. Also, Understanding and Solutions (UandS) says, component prices are dropping dramatically. “Drive, chipset and other system components are now benefiting from economies of scale. In early 2008 we’re going to see the Bill of Materials for a basic high-definition player, in either format, weighing in at less than $150, and that’s going to impact the high street very soon, providing the consumer with a choice of low-price players that allow CE companies a margin for profit," UandS senior technology consultant Bill Foster says.

Massive discounting is already occurring in the United States, where Wal-Mart last month put on sale a $98 (£49) Toshiba HD-A2 that flabbergasted the tech world. You can also find Blu-Ray players in the US for under $300 (£150), UandS reports.

To be sure, within three years, you will be able to find a fair number of both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray players for under £50, a steep mark-down from the £400-plus models on sale earlier this year.

Comments

[Kevin Sullivan]

Never mind the price of the hardware. Have you seen the price of the disks, the average high street price is £20 to £30 and that is for one disk.

[ron McDon]

Yeah .. like , ALL consumer electronic stuff is half price next year. Then it becomes outdated. But not artificial hearts, they keep their prices.

[Ian]

The price of the player is not the sticking point with High Definition;the real problem is the cost and choice of disks. I have purchased an HD DVD player ($200 including five disks) but I will hold off buying many disks until one or the other format triumphs. Just like Beta and VHS the competing companies are shooting themselves in the foot.

[Peter]

£137 is average for a HD-DVD player today? Thats impossible, the cheapest is about £180.

[Jms]

Peter, they are saying that by Xmas 2008 it will be that price!!!!!

[Maria]

I have just bought a HD DVD player here in Madrid amd it cost me 49 euros!

[JD]

All irrelevent now, the war is over. Warner and Newline studios switch to Blu-ray exclusive means that Blu-ray now has 70% of all movie content exclusive vs 30% for HD DVD. Various other dominos have started to fall and will continue to.
I'd be surprised if Paramount and Universal won't be producing in both formats by Christmas 2008 putting a lid on the first format war of the 21st century.
I wouldn't suggest anyone buy into HD DVD anymore.

[regeya]

Heck, if you're wanting a good upscaling DVD player you can choose to buy an Oppo, or an HD-DVD player. The A3 I have may only do 1080i, but regular DVDs look fantastic.

I sometimes wonder if this explains the disparity we see between HD-DVD player sales and disc sales, and why Blu-Ray discs have sold more units than Blu players. I bought an A3 right before the Warner announcement and have no plans to get rid of it. In fact, Warner has virtually guaranteed that I won't be buying any HD discs from them after May, and I'd be a fool to buy any DVDs between now and Christmas (when I plan to buy a Blu player, provided it doesn't go the way of SACD.)