Why the Wii could fall in 2008

Nintendo's Wii may have won round one, but its longer term fortunes are very much in doubt, according to new forecasts from media analysts at UK-based Screen Digest.

This Christmas season marks the first time the three game consoles -- Sony's Playstation 3, Microsoft's Xbox 360 and the Wii -- have vied for consumer's wallets in all major territories. And, despite costly supply shortages, Wii is a cinch to come out the winner. But in 2008, the market will not be so kind, says Screen Digest.

"Whereas in 2007 Nintendo has succeeded in expanding the appeal of the Wii to different consumers, including more females and older consumers to drive adoption, Sony's pipeline of exclusive content and the launch of multimedia services may result in a significant uplift for the PlayStation 3 in 2008," Screen Digest says in a new report. The more sophisticated PS3 and Xbox will trigger continued demand for these consoles from consumers looking for a machine that doubles as a PVR, or, in the case of Sony, as a Blu-ray player.

Speaking of Blu-ray, Screen Digest offers some comforting (depending on which horse you are backing) thoughts on one of the most aggravating format wars to emerge in recent years. The stand-off between Bu-ray, backed by Sony, and HD DVD, backed by Toshiba and Microsoft, is entering a year of reckoning. One of the camps is poised to fold under the pressure, Screen Digest reckons.

Analyst Analyst Richard Cooper says, "Next year we expect to see shifting alliances, and with such a delicate stalemate, it's only going to take one major player to swap sides and the market will shift seismically. We believe this will happen over the course of 2008, with major players moving to format-agnostic or format-exclusive positions."

You might want to hold off until the dust settles.

Comments

[El Gonzi]

Interesting post. Thanks.

El Gonzi

[Joaquin]

The point of the Wii is that Nintendo's expanded market don't care for added functionality and hi-tech features and many of them feel it is overwhelming and they don't know where to begin. Most of those who wanted such features would have already bought their X360 or PS3.
I agree with the comments on the battle between HD-DVD and Blu-ray. We can't have both and one will have to give. If it's Blu-Ray that gives then Sony's console will suffer yet another massive blow to its advantage (as with the psp's useless UMD movies), and i do feel it will be the HD-DVD that prevails as Sony have failed before with these tactics with their UMDs and facing SD Cards with their Memory Stick Pro.

[Angus C]

Doesn't this more explain why the PS3's fortunes will improve next year, rather than why the Wii might fail?

[matthew robertson]

hd-dvd vs blu ray...........has hd-dvd not already won!?

the reason i say this, and maybe raise an eyebrow or two is the news a wee while back that america's porn industry is backing hd-dvd.

now for the life of me i wish i could post a link to the article i read, but the article suggested projected sales of pornographic hd-dvd's worldworld would be enough to decide the fate between the two formats.

[derek potter]

Beg to differ!! Blockbuster in USA have already suspended HD-DVD rentals in favour of Blu-ray, due to customer demand. The old adage of "Where America leads the world follows" will probably hold true in this case as in many others. For many users of the PS3 the choice is clear and i think it will prove to be Sonys winning card.

[Stringer]

Its done. The fight is over and the writing is on the wall for Msoft and friends. Sony earns a long time deserved credit for its lifelong offerings of quality to consumers

[Daniel Hall]

You need to check out YouTube for some incredible footage of the power of the Wimote (Wii Remote). All Nintendo needs to do is encorporate some of these features (multi-touch whiteboards on any surface, VR head motion detection for real time vantage of screen images etc) into new games.

http://nz.youtube.com/user/jcl5m

http://nz.youtube.com/watch?v=KyvIlKSA0BA