Who's your money on: Chelsea or Liverpool?

John Arne Riise's last-gasp own goal changed everything, at least in the minds of the bookmakers, who are now quoting Chelsea at a general price of 2/1 to win the Champions League, with Liverpool out at 5/1. But is it as clear-cut as that, are the Londoners clear favourites to progress to the final in Moscow even though they were lucky to escape from Anfield with a draw?

The stats seem to say that Chelsea simply cannot fail. Since the present format of three knock-out rounds before the final was adopted for the Champions League, in the 2003-04 season, nine first-leg matches have finished 1-1. On seven of those nine occasions, the team that failed to make home advantage count have been eliminated, six times by losing the second leg, once on penalties after a second 1-1 draw. A further good omen for the Blues is that the only team to buck the trend - by drawing 1-1 at home and then winning on the road – are Chelsea themselves. They have managed the feat twice, against Valencia last season and Arsenal in 2004. 

(winners in capital letters)

2008:

1st knock-out round: Lille v MANCHESTER UNITED; 1-1, 0-1.

QF: Arsenal v LIVERPOOL; 1-1, 2-4.

2007:

1KR: FC Porto v CHELSEA; 1-1, 1-2.

QF: CHELSEA v Valencia; 1-1, 2-1.

2006:

1KR: Bayern Munich v AC MILAN; 1-1, 1-4.

2005:

1KR: FC Porto v INTERNAZIONALE; 1-1, 1-3

QF: Lyon v PSV EINDHOVEN; 1-1, 1-1 (PSV won on penalties)

2004:

1KR: Bayern Munich v REAL MADRID; 1-1, 0-1.

QF: CHELSEA v Arsenal 1-1, 2-1

If you do not trust the numbers and prefer to look at the evidence of last night’s match, then you may believe that the Reds still have a shout. After all, Petr Cech did not look at all comfortable dealing with crosses and Fernando Torres failed to convert a gilt-edged opportunity for the Merseysiders.

The counter-argument, of course, is that Liverpool have blown it and that Chelsea's formidable home record means it is impossible to look beyond Avram Grant's side. The West Londoners are unbeaten at home in 100 matches - since a 2-1 defeat by Arsenal under Claudio Ranieri in February 2004 - and Liverpool have not scored on the eight occasions that Rafael Benitez has taken his team to Stamford Bridge in the past four seasons.

Of course, nit-pickers will point out that Chelsea were eliminated from the League Cup at Stamford Bridge by Charlton Athletic on October 26, 2005, although since it was on penalties after a 1-1 draw and extra time, it could be argued that it was not, technically, a defeat. Jose Mourinho, in fact, regularly argued the point. Could we be in for something similar next Tuesday?

What do you think? Cast your vote and have your say below.   

Opinion Polls & Market Research

Comments

[Ron]

Chelsea to win 4-2, there will be no defence play, both teams will go to strike the opponents' goal, the blue team will come out to field with madness in their eyes, to get finally to champions final. No way at all someone or some thing will stop them. The reds will back home with the tail between their legs. Go, Chelsea, GO!

[Roy Pinney]

As a CFC fan, it seems to me that most of the coverage of this match assumes that it is only Chelsea who have a tactical dilemma i.e. whether to shut up shop or play a more attacking game. Liverpool have the same decision to make, bearing in mind that a 1-0 win will be enough. Benitez' natural caution will inevitably mean that Liverpool won't risk too much early on.

Also, Liverpool's recent poor record at the Bridge counts for nothing - this is a one-off occasion, and if anything they have outperformed Chelsea in their three encounters this season. However, I do think that the momentum is with Chelsea now, particularly after Riise's contribution last Tuesday and also the high-octane win v United at the weekend.

I hope Chelsea take the game on as they did against United on Saturday. Trying for a 0-0 would be doomed to failure.

[Mark]

My red tinted glasses see this match unfolding in two ways:

- the match goes into the second half 0-0. Chelsea defend deeper and deeper the nearer it gets to full time until increasing pressure from Liverpool forces a penalty.

- Liverpool get their tactics right from the start and score an early goal. Grant will then be caught in two minds and his team loses shape. They push forward but Liverpool counter attack keeping Chelsea in there own half for much of the game.

[Terry Langley]

Liverpool are perfectly capable of scoring 1 goal in 90 mins. They are also perfectly capable of keeping a clean sheet. Should it end 1-1, then it's all up for grabs. Bottom line...the pressure is off The Reds and put firmly onto Chelsea.
LIVERPOOL TO GO THROUGH!!

[Gloria]

We have been given a gift but anyone who has been at games recently can tell that the manager is not inspiring. Liverpool stopped pushing forward in the last fifteen minutes and paid the price. Thats both teams problem they are too defensive in their aprouch to games. Looks like Man u have started to copy them as well. If we try to cling on to O-O then we will come unstuck. we have to get early goal. 2-0 Chelsea. Have to be honest this Chelsea team like the manager are not easy on the eye. Would be ironic if one of the least attractive teams and managers in our History win Europeon cup.

[IAN ROSARIO]

I reckon if Liverpool draw first blood at the bridge next wednesday, Chelsea would have to come out all guns blazing. Remember the ref at Anfield was too linient with Terry and Carvalho, and Chelsea's tactics of containing Torres, while Liverpool counter-attack, may no longer work next time around. Also Drogba looks nowhere near his best, and with Cole and Lampard struggling, the only likely way Liverpool mite concede is through a set piece. To sum it up I'd say Liverpool mite jus shade it, by a goal, thus finally ending Chelsea's assumed 100 match winning streak at the bridge.

[Mia Fiona]

My money on Liverpool. Well you have to believe your boys can make it!

[Gavin Hall]

Liverpool to win 2-1 on the night, and 3-2 on Agg. Grant will get caught in two minds over tactics, and end up playing too deep, and Liverpool will capitalise. It was a good result for Chelsea tonight, almost liverpool esq. But Rafa will already have a plan of how to play at the Bridge. And it might include a certain Peter Crouch. Nando had an off night tonight, but still could have two goals, next week he wont be so generous. And this time, Chelsea wont have any excuses about losing.