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July 16, 2008

Oliver Kay replies: are you ready to stick with your manager all season?

This week's debate asked who you think will win the Premier League sack race. Stoke fans don't think Tony Pulis will get the push however bad their season may turn out, but Alan Curbishley and Kevin Keegan are walking a tightrope according to other readers.

I don't think any of the newly-promoted managers will be sacked. In the main chairmen are not idiots and will see what happened to Derby last year when they sacked the manager that got them promoted and never won another game. I think the most likely for the chop are from the established brigade or high-profile like the guy at Chelsea. J Oddens.

OK: I agree about the lessons learned from the Derby experience, even though Billy Davies was a rare example where "mutual consent" meant precisely that. Scolari for the sack? Can't see it. After a turbulent 18 months (in which they reached a Champions League final and semi-final, finished second twice in the league and won the FA Cup), Roman Abramovich recognises the need for stability.

The sadder thing is that these bookmakers don't do their homework. Tony Pulis and Peter Coates are friends. There is no way on this earth that Tony Pulis will be sacked next season. Not even if we finish bottom, with no points. Matthew Jones.

OK: Peter Ridsdale and David O'Leary were friends. Phil Gartside and Sam Allardyce were friends. But, happily, it looks like there's an awful lot less ego in the boardroom at Stoke, which is a good thing.

Stoke City will not sack TP. There is a sense of unity at the Britannia that you will struggle to find at most other clubs. SCFC fans are not glory hunters (unlike most Premier League fans) and will not be baying for blood if results don't go our way. We are just glad we are there after 23 years of misery. JH.

OK: That's what I expected to hear from Stoke's supporters - and Hull's and West Brom's. I just hope that, if and when things do get difficult, the boards at all three clubs stick with the manager. I thought it was sad that Davies left Derby County in the early part of last season. That was primarily due to tensions between him and his board, but I'm not sure those tensions would have arisen - at least not so many of them - had they not been promoted in the first place. Having worked wonders to win promotion, Pulis, Phil Brown and Tony Mowbray are entitled to a season to try to keep their team in the Premier League - and the chance to take them back again if it comes to that.

Managers already have pressure on them for the sack? And who puts the pressure on them in the first place? Yep, the newspapers. Ash.

OK: I'm not going to claim the pressure exerted by the media is healthy, Ash, but it reflects the pressure that emanates from the boardroom and the terraces at virtually every club. Last season the newspapers were full of stories about Jose Mourinho, Martin Jol, Sam Allardyce, Sven-Goran Eriksson and Avram Grant, but those stories reflected discontent with the manager either in the boardroom or in the dressing-room or both. In Allardyce's case, that extended to the terraces. Mourinho, Jol and Eriksson received an extremely sympathetic press. Contrary to his belief, Grant was liked by the media. The problems were that he was only ever a short-term appointment and he was undermined by leaks from within the dressing-room. Should the press report those tensions or should we pretend everything is sweetness and light behind the scenes? Discuss.

It seems interesting that there is now no mention of Rafael Benitez. What a difference a few months can make. Joe.

OK: Good point, Joe. Will explain further in the unlikely event that someone riles me into a fuller response. 

On the Rafa comment: given that for a period, Oliver Kay was writing every day that there was no way that Rafa would still be at Anfield at the end of last season, let alone the start of this one, there seemed to be very little humble pie eaten. JR.

OK: Do you think I was praying for Benitez to be sacked? Do you think those reports were based on a stab in the dark rather than impeccably sourced information that the club's owners were ready to sack him (as Tom Hicks later admitted)? The fact is that even Rafa was surprised to ride out that particular storm, which, incidentally, required eating a few servings of humble paella and sucking up to people he does not respect. A personal view is that the fans' protests saved Benitez from the sack last autumn. But had certain things gone undetected and unreported by the media, he would not have had a chance. You could ask why the whole thing was played out in the media in the first place, but that was what the protagonists were intent on doing. An embarrassing episode that one hopes they have learned from. And maybe I have learned not to underestimate Benitez's survival skills in future ...

How can Thaksin Shina-whatsit sack Mark Hughes if the former is in prison in Thailand? And Leicester City and Hearts will have changed their managers nine times before the first Premier League manager is booted out. Leigh Vernier.

OK: On Thaksin Shinawatra, I'm sure he would find a way. But even he has some way to go before he can be mentioned in the same breath as Milan Mandaric at Leicester and Roman Romanov at Hearts. I wish Nigel Pearson and, erm, Csaba Laszlo all the best and I hope they know what they are letting themselves in for. Sidenote 1: the Hearts website does not have Laszlo listed as manager. Has he been sacked already? Sidenote 2: bizarre that Ian Holloway, having briefly worked at Leicester, should have been tempted by the Hearts job. Mind you, Holloway, by his own admission, is a couple of full-backs short of a back four.

Ex-King Kev - the only thing that might save him from the sack is if he flounces out first. James Brownley.

OK: Keegan claims his reputation for "flouncing out" is unmerited, but I have to say I see this one ending in tears. I still find the appointment baffling. Keegan is already beginning to sound weary and frustrated and I suspect that a few difficult results will leave Mike Ashley and indeed the club's supporters wondering where next. And, for better or for worse, the spectre of Alan Shearer still hangs over the club.

The best bet would be Alan Curbishley, I think. You've got to consider that most clubs changed their manager last season so you're left looking at who didn't. Then who looks like struggling to improve. He seems a nice bloke and a decent manager but Curbishley just isn't as exciting as a lot of other managers (available and not) and, if mediocrity emerges next season, as is most likely, then I think fans and owner alike will want to try something else. Josh Dickson.

OK: Perfect logic, Josh, and I suspect you may be proved right. Curbishley is starting next season with little margin for error. He spent last season moaning about injuries to his summer signings, but buying so many players with a history of injury problems was short-sighted in the extreme. This summer, by contrast, he has been under pressure to trim the squad and promote youth. If that goes well, he could emerge stronger, but I would imagine there are already contingency plans in place. Had he not chosen to stay in charge of Croatia, there would have been a clamour to appoint Slaven Bilic this summer.

Mark Hughes, if they sign Ronaldinho. Surely that's not his idea. I don't think he'll last long if City's main shirt-seller is left on the bench! I hope it doesn't happen, but look what happened to Sven. Ian.

I would have an outside punt on Mark Hughes. Factors here are, of course, nothing to do with his ability. No, it's do with a ridiculously unrealistic and meddling chairman, the inheritance of a decent but over-expensive squad, the failure of Jo and/or Ronaldinho to shine and the requirement to find his feet in new terrain ... all seeing an average first 20 games... and the subsequent ill-deserved sack! Anthony.

OK: I hope you're wrong. If Hughes is allowed to do things his way and make the changes he wants, he will be a big success at Manchester City. If policy is dictated to him by an egotistical chairman who suddenly thinks he is a football expert and that the key to success is "big names", it could be a disaster. But instinct tells me that Hughes is strong enough to impose his will and beliefs on the club and that, in time, his appointment in place of Eriksson will be considered a great move. As for the Ronaldinho move, I suspect Hughes will be secretly relieved that the Brazil forward is going to AC Milan. Blessing in a none-too-convincing disguise.

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Oliver Kay what a writer. No chance of him doing this every week is there?

Posted by: Josh Dickson | July 16, 2008 at 07:03 PM

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