Martin Samuel replies: Should Sir Alex fear Arsenal?

This week, Martin Samuel posed the question: Should Sir Alex Ferguson fear Arsenal? He replies to readers' replies.

Best of luck to Mikael Silvestre. He gave us nine years of good service, so deserved a move to wherever he wanted. He is not going to get any better and he always had the ability to blunder. Arsene Wenger seems to like that type of player, though, remember Pascal Cygan, replaced by Philippe Senderos, and now Silvestre. Although Arsenal play beautiful football I don’t see how they will hold onto third this season, never mind scare Manchester United. They are centrally weak, William Gallas does not behave like a captain, they rely heavily on Cesc Fabregas and don’t have a decent goalkeeper.
Markobaggio.

MS: A reasoned, and reasonable, critique of Arsenal’s failings to start us off and at this point I would traditionally insert the counter argument to reflect both sides of the debate but, in this case, there hasn’t been one. Yes, there are a few that would guard against complacency, or believe Arsenal are the odd signing away from giving it a go, and the majority respect their football, but nobody has provided a comparably succinct summing up of why Arsenal could be the team to watch this season. There would appear to be some worried people out there. Thomas here is the nearest to a standard bearer, but even his argument is based mainly on superstition.

Sir Alex Ferguson will never neglect the threat of Arsenal, not since Wenger won the double in his first full season in charge, after Ferguson dismissed him as a guru. Last season, the Gunners were written off by journalists, rival clubs and even their own fans, but United could still struggle due to the lack of back-up in defence.
Thomas Macaulay.

MS: A lot will depend on Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic staying fit, but that is true at many clubs. Even Chelsea do not appear to have great strength in depth at centre-half, beyond John Terry and Ricardo Carvalho. Liverpool are about the best in that position.

The problem with Silvestre is his concentration levels are akin to a young Rio Ferdinand. Last season, a United player took a throw-in that went to Silvestre who was not paying attention, so picked it up and went to take the throw himself. Result? A free-kick for hand-ball on the edge of the United box. With Arsenal getting rid of Senderos they are replacing one inconsistent defender with another, older, one. I struggle to see where they have strengthened their first XI, or even their squad, since last season, when they were shown to be quite a way short of challenging United.
Tomred.

MS: I would have Silvestre ahead of Senderos, Tom, but that aside I take your point. Sami Nasri looks a good signing, though, and they will be better with Fabregas back, but they do not appear to have taken the leap forward that, say, Chelsea have with Deco.

There is a lot of negativity surrounding Arsenal. I think we are one or two signings away from being a title winning side. It is, however, a fine balance and I think if we do not buy we will be third again, behind United and Chelsea. Xabi Alonso or Gareth Barry would be great additions, particularly Alonso, as he would suit our technical style. Abou Diaby as Fabregas’s partner could work very well and with everyone fit our team is as good as any rival: Manuel Almunia; Bacary Sagna, Kolo Toure, Gallas, Gael Clichy; Nasri, Fabregas, Diaby, Tomas Rosicky; Robin Van Persie, Emmanuel Adebayor.
The Bear.

MS: A bit of contradiction here, Bear. You say you are as good as anybody, but also that you are one or two players short of a title winning side: those statements are mutually exclusive. If you still need to buy to win the title, your team cannot be as good as the teams you are chasing.

Arsenal’s squad looks paper thin. If they were in the hands of any other manager they would be distinctly average.
Harry Boulton.

MS: Average is a tad harsh, Harry, but I agree that the greatest talent at Arsenal is the manager.

I seem to remember that around this time last season, Arsenal were widely dismissed yet finished four points behind the champions. So, yes, Ferguson should be very afraid. (I still think Arsenal are a world class goalkeeper away from the title though.)
Sharpe.

MS: See, there you go again. Just when it looks like we are getting a robust defence of Arsenal, in comes that little voice of doubt.

Should Ferguson fear Arsenal? Respect, yes, fear no. Almunia is going to have to make rapid strides to be top class and the Toure-Gallas partnership is faulty and lacks aerial ability. Toure is getting near his peak and is still making the same positional errors. The loss of Aleksandr Hleb is huge and the midfield still needs a ball winner.
Timothy Tanner.

MS: Apart from that, though, it is all rosy. And Timothy, if I recall correctly, is an Arsenal fan.

Arsenal could overtake Manchester United for second if they get an injury free run. It would be something like motor racing where the second  placed driver is too busy concentrating on catching first to realise he is about to be overtaken by the guy in third position.
Robert Smyth.

MS: Yes, but in motor racing that manoeuvre happens in a split second, a bit harder when a manager has days on end to study the league tables.

Wenger knew that Rosicky and Eduardo had long term injuries, yet made no real attempt to bolster the squad. Who did Arsenal have on the bench against Fulham to rescue the game?
Sam.

MS: Part of the problem is that Wenger has such faith in the young players that he does not want to sign established stars that will block their progression. I am told that the dithering over a central midfield player is because if Arsenal sign Barry or Alonso, it as good as relegates Denilson to the Carling Cup team for the next four years. These are noble sentiments from Wenger, but not necessarily title-winning ones.

Wenger persists with pacy central defenders who do not have the required aggression. Where is the next Tony Adams or Patrick Vieira, ready to put their body on the line for the sake of the team?
Brian McCauley.

MS: Chelsea, probably.

It now appears that producing talented young players has become Arsenal's forte rather than competing for honours. Wenger has become blinded by his legend.
Dan.

MS: That would suggest he is doing it for the sake of ego, Dan, which I am sure is untrue. I do think, however, that managers become entrenched in certain philosophies and beliefs with age and that Wenger is becoming more obsessed with the purity of the Arsenal way as time marches on. And that is no bad thing, because his total commitment to the beautiful game is admirable – but it is also the toughest style with which to win matches, particularly on a limited budget.

Unless Arsenal stop acting like they're a small club bravely holding their own amongst the big boys, any notion of Manchester United fearing them will wither into irrelevance. Arsenal are a huge club, with the second highest average attendance in the league, and enormous financial potential. Yet Wenger's transfer policy revolves around bringing in players on the cheap and making something of them with a nice profit a few years down the line. I have an immense respect for Wenger but his concern for the finances, and his own position as bargain-finder general, appears to be drifting towards compulsive obsession. As a neutral, I thoroughly enjoy Wenger's devotion to art over achievement, but a club with the potential to be tremendously successful has become centred solely on an aesthetic, subjective concept of success. Arsenal are a big club and it would do the board and management well to remember that once in a while.
Rob.

MS: I think it was this that used to irk Jose Mourinho at Chelsea. He thought Wenger had engineered an ascent to a higher plane where he was judged purely on the beauty of the football, not on its return. If this is his present state I do not think he has deliberately negotiated it, more that the limitations on his budget as a result of the stadium construction have led to a lowering of expectation. I don’t think any manager would settle for less than success, given the choice, but I agree that his position appears increasingly entrenched.

Sir Alex Ferguson would probably recognise that Arsenal in the next two or three years have the ability, the manager and the infrastructure to challenge in a serious way. Arsenal are moving towards the same position as United in the nineties, fusing a motivated young team and a manager with business savvy. Arsenal are planning for the future. When United won the treble in 1999 they still had a wage structure. Big players were missed in the transfer market during this time, too. Wenger is the master exponent of identifying the players he needs, without breaking the bank. Ferguson isn't looking over his shoulder for Arsenal this season, but he will be over the next few years.
Glynn.

MS: The most positive reading of the current situation yet – and it came from a Manchester United fan. We’ll leave the Arsenal lot to argue amongst themselves for a moment.

Wenger seems to be trapped in a Groundhog Day where his self-imposed challenge each morning is to prove wrong those who doubt the merits of his philosophy. How about less selfish goals, like winning the Premier League for Arsenal? Greater spending could help him, and his club, achieve this goal.
Z.X.

From the Invincibles to the Incapables in just four years, what happened to the days when teams feared us? Adebayor is massively over rated and Van Persie is injury prone. Fabregas, Clichy and Sagna are the only players in our squad who would get near another first team in the top four and even then it would probably be on the bench. Wenger must lose his stubborn streak and see we need a new goalkeeper, a rock hard centre half, a couple of experienced and tough midfielders and a striker who scores goals rather than pirouettes beautifully around the box. If the money is there and Wenger cannot bring himself to do the necessary work then he should go. Adrian Blight.

Mr. Blight, this cannot stay unanswered. The only important player we have lost and have not yet replaced adequately is Mathieu Flamini, because Nasri is most likely better than Hleb. Why should this season be worse then the last one? Buying a lot of expensive players is something a trained ape can do. Developing and forming a team that plays arguably the best football is high art and makes Wenger the best manager in the world, even if he never wins a title again. To answer the debate question, Ferguson should fear Arsenal every year. United’s performance against Newcastle was not convincing, either. True fans should know better than throwing in the towel. Arsène knows.
Matthias.

MS: I think he does, Matthias, but what I saw at Craven Cottage on Saturday was not high art or anything like it, so don’t accept a lesser brand. And I am not convinced Nasri is better than Hleb; indeed, I cannot think of too many players who are better than Hleb.

The moment Arsenal employ a clinical finisher will be the time when they win the league easily.
Ilja.

MS: It may run deeper than that, Ilja. I share the concern about the goalkeeper, for starters.

Perhaps this is just another example of naivety from Sir Alex in the transfer market. Having already sold Gerard Pique to Barcelona, the loss of Silvestre could end up back-firing should anything happen to Ferdinand, Patrice Evra or Vidic. It wouldn't be the first time he has made such a mistake. Without strengthening the side, as well as the demoralising Cristiano Ronaldo saga, maybe the question should be whether United are the team to fear this year?
Richie Woodcock.

MS: I think Richie may be whistling to keep his spirits up here. But a nice try anyway.

Comments

[chris francis]

i think ferguson sees evans as the new pique - ie decent young centre back stand in. and wes brown did that fantastically at times last season where previously he was very shaky. anderson apparently loves to play attacking left back - i'd love to see that now and again if evra has an injury.

i don't like the phrase flat track bullies and it certainly doesn't apply to arsenal's refined style, but they do have the look of a team who will beat lower level opposition convincingly, especially at home, but who with one or two players missing through injury / suspension, become very vulnerable against decent sides.

berbatov was the best signing of the summer imo, just pipping deco i think in how he brings to the team exactly what they need. but there's very little to split the top three. if you took essien and put him in arsenal's squad, you'd be hard pushed to pick between them. problem for gunners fans is that it hasn't happened.

[Patrick Rennie]

I don't think Sir Alex should fear anybody, but he should most certainly be wary of Arsenal. Whilst i think the best is yet to come from this Arsenal team (and i mean years in the future) they are capable of winning the title this year. Over the last three seasons we have seen Arsenal fail to get vital goals in 'must win' games time and time again. This could, and probably will, change if Van Persie can stay fit. Whenever he plays he plays well and scores plenty of goals. Couple him with Adebayor and Da Silva returning later on and Arsenal have a goal threat to match the rest of the top 4, and i haven't even mentioned Bendtner - although that was deliberate. The next issue is Almunia, but he is simply not that bad and the rest of the top 4 'keepers are not as good as everyone makes out. Van Der Sar has been prone to the odd mistake and is now very old. Cech has never looked himself since his head injury and is nowhere near the best goalkeeper in the World, he's probably not in the top 5 in the league. Finally Reina is simply too poor at aeriel balls.

The only real positions that Arsenal are substantially weaker is in the captaincy and a holding midfielder. Gallas is not a good captain (and did have a poor season last year, but can still be excellent), but there will be less need for a captain this year. The young players are a year older and have the experience of a title collapse to spur themselves on. That leaves the holding midfielder. Losing Flamini was a real blow, but it does not rule out their title chance. 2 seasons ago Man U won with Carrick and Scholes in the middle of the park and last season Hargreaves was a long way off starting every game. Cesc and another could be good enough to help Arsenal win the title.

I know there are a lot of 'ifs' and 'buts', however this is true of aany team winning the league. Man U need Rio and Vidic to stay fit and need another striker; Chelsea don't have a proven consistent goalscorer and are equally reliant on their centre-backs remaining fit; and Liverpool still lack decent wingers. Arsenal are probably 4th favourites - Liverpool 3rd, Man U 2nd and Chelsea 1st - but they are more capable of winning this league this season.

[Jay]

On the theory that no team is invincible, I would presume United should be worried about Arsenal. Arsenal did worry United all through the late 90's and through the early part of this decade.

Arsenal have the ability to suprise, football is a funny game, as I type this Blackburn just lost to a supposedly clueless West Ham side. Arsenal play a fluent style of football and have the right personnel employed to make it function. I can't understand why we are not given enough coverage on players like Nasri and co before they sign for clubs, I had to you tube him and he is some talent.

[Rhys Jaggar]

I think Arsenal will improve radically over the season.

The question is whether they blow it in the first three months.

If so, they're in trouble, because their league programme until November is easy.

Wednesday night was much better.

Saturday will be very informative.

But with Fabregas back: looks much better.

[Kafka]

MU needs not fear Arsenal if MU continues to have the knack of not conceding penalty kick throughout the season and Wenger continues to be obsessed with the balance sheet instead of squad strength compared with other teams.
Even a Febregas could not bring a miracle. He was close last season. He has less chance this season as Arsenal has become weaker thanks to Wenger's rigid adherence to his beloved wage structure. Though I fail to see why Adebayor should receive a hefty rise whilst Flamini and Hleb would have to seek greener pasture elsewhere.
Adebayor's conversion ratio is dismal. One should not just look at his goal tally but also the conversion ratio which is a far more accurate indicator of a striker's ability. Arsenal's sorry saga last season has a lot to do with Adebayor's pathetic finishing when the going gets tough.
Also Adebayor must improve his attitude. Arsenal lost to Liverpool in the UEFA Cup match last season because of the over zealous celebration by Adebayor who must have thought that the match was cut and dried after his late goal. His over celebration distracted his teammates and hence Liverpool made a comeback. Only Febragas seemed to realise the danger but he alone could not stop the lethal Liverpool counter attack.
I wonder whether Wenger has spoken to Adebayor on this lethal lapse of concentration let alone if he had reprimanded Adebayor. The latter does not seem to have changed his way of celebration at all.

[Kafka]

MU needs not fear Arsenal if MU continues to have the knack of not conceding penalty kick throughout the season and Wenger continues to be obsessed with the balance sheet instead of squad strength compared with other teams.
Even a Febregas could not bring a miracle. He was close last season. He has less chance this season as Arsenal has become weaker thanks to Wenger's rigid adherence to his beloved wage structure. Though I fail to see why Adebayor should receive a hefty rise whilst Flamini and Hleb would have to seek greener pasture elsewhere.
Adebayor's conversion ratio is dismal. One should not just look at his goal tally but also the conversion ratio which is a far more accurate indicator of a striker's ability. Arsenal's sorry saga last season has a lot to do with Adebayor's pathetic finishing when the going gets tough.
Also Adebayor must improve his attitude. Arsenal lost to Liverpool in the UEFA Cup match last season because of the over zealous celebration by Adebayor who must have thought that the match was cut and dried after his late goal. His over celebration distracted his teammates and hence Liverpool made a comeback. Only Febragas seemed to realise the danger but he alone could not stop the lethal Liverpool counter attack.
I wonder whether Wenger has spoken to Adebayor on this lethal lapse of concentration let alone if he had reprimanded Adebayor. The latter does not seem to have changed his way of celebration at all.

[Blevins]

Arsenal may look to have the necessary infrastructure and manager in place to challenge the Uniteds and Chelseas in the next few years but that is only predicated on their ability to retain the top young talent at their disposal. Cesc, Sagna and Nasri may find it hard to resist the temptations of the mainland in the next two or three years particularly if the trophy case remains bare. With new youngsters brought in to replace maturing ones leaving for greener pastures, Arsenal may find themselves caught in a state of permanent transition. By the time the cycle is interrupted, Alex Ferguson may be well into retirement.

[Darryl J]

It does look as if Wenger is building a team that is 2 to 3 years away from real title contention. However, I have grown increasingly frustrated with hearing him say that this current team can win now and basically lost the title last year. "Could, Should & Would" are not the words of champions. There are too many questions from the goalie to the strikers for this team to claim it is championship caliber. As for this current squad, Cesc, Sagna & Clichy are the strongest points. I see Nasri as a great fit. Too bad Eduardo & Rosicky are not fit because with Nasri they would make a great attacking threat. As a fan I love beautiful football...but silverware looks pretty good also.

[Okimart]

2010-2011 will be Arenal's year?

Not if the current crop get disillusioned with not winning anything and walk away a la Hleb and Flamini.

[daniel white]

Firstly, I really dont understand why Almunia gets so much stick. For me he is a decent keeper who will only get better,where as VDS and PC are both past thier peak. Regarding the much talked about Flamini replacement (or maybee lack of), let it not be forgotten that he was never expected to become the player he did. Could the same not happen for,say Song? Dont get me wrong, it would be reasuring for arsenal supporters to see an established midfielder sign, but Wenger has proved many times that promotion from within can bring results too.

Hleb is massively over-rated. How many goals did he score? Compare that with the number David Pires used to score and set up. No comparison. Arsenal's problem is that they have lost Flamini and have not yet sold Eboue.

[Rezwan]

I don't buy all this nonsense about Wenger not wanting to hinder the development of his young players. Almunia is definitely not young and if an experienced goalkeeper is going to be standing in Fabianski's way, why not get one who is actually a bit good? I have my doubts about how good adebayor really is, although i do believe nasri will turn out better than hleb. But the biggest problem is that if Wenger actually wants his youngsters to develop and lets face it, by denying himself the chance to win titles he is doing more than any manager would ever do; then why doesn't his youngsters develop into good squad players?? Walcott, Denilson, Diaby, Song, Senderos... the list of Arsenal youngsters who are not really good enough to really challenge for a regular first team place is huge. Unless this changes Wenger is really just throwing away titles for a project which has already failed. The culture of losing and excuses is not one that can be shaken easily. Arsenal would do well to learn from the peculiar mental block which holds back Newcastle. Then again what do I know? I am just a United fan still drunk on success.

[Howard]

2010 - 2011 is when Arsenal challenge.

The kids wil have matured and physically strengthened.
The Highbury property money will be there to spend.