Imperial Shenanigans

With uncanny speed and disturbing accuracy, the first of this weblog’s prophecies for the year 2006 has already come to pass. As the Sage of Singapore warned me on New Year’s Day, the rift within Japan’s Imperial Family over the future line of succession has grown wider with the publication of an incendiary article in a monthly magazine.

On the one side of the argument are Japan's prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, a panel of scholars appointed by him, and – according to opinion polls – about 80 per cent of the Japanese public, all of whom favour a change in the law to allow a woman to ascend the Chrysanthemum Throne as reigning Empress. Apart from the obvious signal which this would send about the place of women in a modern society, it would solve an increasingly urgent practical problem – the lack of a male heir in the generation below Crown Prince Naruhito.

But fighting an increasingly vigorous rearguard action is a shadowy coalition of conservatives and traditionalists who oppose any change to the current system of exclusively male succession. For the past few months, their arguments have been voiced by a small group of right-wing academics, a rather larger group of Japanese MPs, and Tsuneyasu Takeda, a descendant of one of the old aristocratic families which were stripped of their imperial status by the post-war US Occupation. Now, though, they are receiving outspoken support from a much more influential figure -

- Prince Tomohito of Mikasa, cousin of Emperor Akihito, and a grandson of the late Emperor Showa (Hirohito).

Last autumn, he made his feelings known in a tiny charity newsletter. Now he has given an interview in next month’s issue of the mass circulation Bungei Shinju magazine (see it, in Japanese only, here) in which he sets out in detail the arguments for rejecting succession through the female line (for a detailed summary of them, see here and here.)

This kind of thing is unprecedented; it is unconventional, verging an taboo-breaking, for a member of the Imperial Family to speak out publicly on a matter of active political debate. The fury which it has provoked in the Imperial Household Agency can be judged by the response of its Grand Steward, Shingo Haketa. “I cannot help but be concerned as various remarks have emerged since the beginning of this year,” he told a press conference. “Frankly, I'm really not sure how to react … It is appropriate that imperial family members refrain from making comments.”

In the terms of Imperial utterance, this is as blunt as it gets. De-euphemised, it can be translated thus:

“I cannot help but be concerned” = I am beside myself with anger.
“Frankly, I'm really not sure how to react” = Gobsmacked is not the word for it.
“It is appropriate that imperial family members refrain from making comments” = Prince or no prince, that bloke should zip it.

Will the Prince’s intervention make much difference? Probably not, although the next few weeks will be crucial. A bill to amend the Imperial Household Law to allow a reigning empress will be put before parliament in the session which begins at the end of this week. It will only be blocked by the strenuous efforts of MPs who share Tomohito’s concern. At the moment it is unclear exactly who they are, and how hard they are prepared to fight. But Shinzo Abe - the Chief Cabinet Secretary and almost certainly Japan’s next prime minister - is probably sympathetic, as is Taro Aso, foreign minister and, uncoincidentally, brother of Prince Tomohito’s wife.