Thaksin's Numbered Days?

I'm flying from Tokyo to Bangkok tomorrow to try to get to grips with the big demonstrations against the prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, led by, among others, the TV presenter Sondhi Limthongkul. It's a fascinating situation, which I find hard to read from my perch in Tokyo. Do the demonstrations have the potential for real violence? What roles could be played by the army and, perhap more importantly, by the Thai King? The whole situation reminds me a lot of the fall of Joseph Estrada in the Philippines in 2001. Like Thaksin, he was loathed by the city elite but adored in the villages. In the end the urban smarties got their way and Estrada was out, despite having been elected fair and square.

I'll post from Thailand whenever I have time. In the meantime here is a preliminary assessment by one of my best sources there, a man I will identify only as Jock of Bangkok. An excerpt from a recent email:

haVarious military people have had to deny a coup is in the offing, but I think this is just wishful thinking or mischief-making, and a sign of just how unreliable alternative forms of news-dissemination can be in a country where the Big Chief controls most of the broadcast media. Thaksin has routinely expressed his contempt, in very un-Thai terms, for the "mob" asking for his resignation, but so far his attack dogs, the police, have wisely been very softly-softly about crowd control at the various demos. The frequency and size of these demos will certainly pick up as the April 2 election approaches (as will all the pro-Thaksin rallies, allegedly paid for by government funds), but it's anyone's guess if it'll get violent. The talk is of the "muu thii saam" -- the third hand. Will a third party provoke violence at an anti-Thaksin rally, causing the police (or military) to lay in and create martyrs? From what we've seen so far, I don't think so. But Sondhi has, it seems, kept the momentum going, and now all sorts of people -- academics, students, farmers -- are emboldened and talking out, and there have been various defections and resignations in Thaksin's party. He definitely looks weaker than he has ever looked, and more so because he doesn't seem to realise it. For once, when people say "Thaksin's days are numbered," I find myself agreeing.

Comments

[thai people]

taksin getout !