Conspiracy mongering in Dili

Like everyone else, I've been dismayed and baffled by the chaotic, scrappy violence and the protracted political crisis in East Timor. I spent a lot of time there, before, during and after the referendum on independence in 1999, but it's more than six years since I've been back. (Partly for practical reasons, partly for the more personal ones described at length here.) So I have found it hard to form a view about the causes of the violence, triggered after 600 soldiers of the tiny East Timorese army deserted in March.

This week, though, came a breakthrough - the resignation of East Timor's prime minister, Mari Alkatiri, who has been blamed for much of the trouble. Not only is he accused of incompetence in dealing with the deserting soldiers and their grievances, an Australian TV documentary has also presented evidence that he had armed hit squads to assassinate his political enemies. Now Alkatiri's gone, a new prime minister will be apppointed by President Xanana Gusmao - and all will finally be well.

That's the gist of much of the foreign coverage over the past few days . But is it that simple? A number of reporters, with long experience of Timor and whose judgement I respect, suggest a much more complicated version in which Mr Alkatiri may himself be a victim of prejudice and conspiracy.

I shun conspiracy theories, by and large. But East Timor, with its long history of genuine persecution by the occupying Indonesians, is the kind of place where they breed uncontrollably. There's a selection of rumours doing the round here, on an interesting blog called Dili-gence, by an anonymous ex-pat based in the Timorese capital. But a more coherent view comes from an email exchange I've ben having with the Australian journalist, John Martinkus, who recently returned from a trip to Dili.

He interviewed Mari Alkatiri (pictured above) and the respected commander of the Timorese military, Taur Matan Ruak. Both told him what was hitherto just rumour: that shadowy plotters, including two foreigners, had been encouraging a coup against Alkatiri. "I think there are outside groups," Alaktiri said. "[They could] be from Australia, maybe from Indonesia but not the governments. I am not accusing the Government of Indonesia or the Government of Australia. But still I do believe there are outside groups we need some time to investigate."

The claim is undermined by the fact that Alkatiri refuses to name any names, But according to Martinkus, it has a ring of truth to it:

The weird thing is elections are scheduled for next year but no-one in the opposition is prepared to wait until then. Now this is where the rumour mill in DIli works overtime ... everybody has a theory related to gas and oil contracts or business deals that have to be signed before then making the removal of Alkatiri an immediate imperative. .. everybody I knew was just shaking their head in disbelief as to how far this crisis has gone. Dili was really empty and just about the only businesses open were those related to foreigners. No Timorese want to be out after dark and there still is unexplained gunfire at night. I believe Alkatiri knows more about foreign involvement but he won't say. I do actually believe him. When you look at the way the whole situation has been orchestrated you really suspect that there has to be some organisation directing this.

Read more of Martinkus's reporting here.

The best piece of analysis I've read is on the BBC website, by Jonathan Head, whose reporting of the crisis in 1999 was unmatched for its shrewdness and balance. "Mr Alkatiri has become a hate-figure," he writes, "blamed for everything that has gone wrong in the country, and it was hard to see how rebuilding confidence and stability after the traumatic events of the past few weeks could start while he remained in office. But was he really so bad?"

You hear many complaints about Mr Alkatiri, some of them obviously unjust.

I have often heard young people complain that he is a Muslim, as though that is a crime in a supposedly democratic and tolerant country.

They also accuse him of being a communist, because of his left-wing views and his long years living in Mozambique.

But these may at times have served East Timor well. His instinctive mistrust of Western help led him to drive a very hard bargain with Australia over East Timor's rights to oil and gas in the Timor Sea, helped by his skills as a negotiator.

It is unlikely anyone else could have done as well for the country.

He also has a deep personal commitment to the sustainable development of his country, and has tried hard to avoid too much aid dependency - ideas formed during his African exile.

Much of his unpopularity is due to his brusque, business-like manner.

He is an intellectual, impatient with people who express poorly thought-out ideas.

He has never seemed able to empathise with the suffering experienced by much of the population during the Indonesian occupation, or to find the right words to comfort those who are often unable to articulate what they feel about those years.

By contrast, President Gusmao is a master of the art of healing. With a few simple words, or just a hug, he can move crowds to tears.

.... it is also worth remembering that East Timor has few capable leaders.

Education levels are among the world's lowest, and the long years of conflict under Indonesia's occupation, and Indonesia's chaotic withdrawal in 1999, left few local people with experience of government.

Mari Alkatiri is among the best they have. The country can ill-afford the loss of his abilities.

The full story is here.