They went and did it

It's just before noon, a misty early autumn day, and I'm waiting to cross the road opposite City Hall in central Seoul. A lot of policemen are standing around, and the lights are taking an unusually long time to change. Suddenly there's a buzz of motorbikes and black-windowed limousines with little Rising Sun flags flapping. It's Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, just arrived after his rather successful summit meeting in Beijing.

I walk to the bank and change my Indonesian rupiah (the left overs of last week's holiday money) into Korean won. Then back around the corner to meet Dr Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert from Kookmin University, for lunch. "Did you hear?" he says. "They've gone ahead with the nuclear test."

It's not a surprise (although I hadn't expected it this early). And yet, stepping back a yard or two, how remarkable - that a country like North Korea, a starving, maimed wreck of a country, should have become a nuclear state. From the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France, down through Israel, India and Pakistan, and now - North Korea. It's like a nuclear armed Cambodia or Albania. Whatever you think of Kim Jong Il, what an amazing thing he has achieved.

How this happened and what happens next will be picked over for years, and I'll be writing more soon. Here's my brief instant reaction, largely based on my conversation with the admirable Dr Lankov, and a few thoughts to bear in mind while picking your way thorugh the self-righteous and inane guff that is already spewing out of CNN et al.

In the next few months there will be endless and tedious tough talking about how bad BAD BAD the Norks are, and what a spanking the "international community" is going to give them. There will be probably be an attempt at sanctions, but they won't make any difference. Nothing the rest of the world can do will make any difference.

There is nothing anyone can do about North Korea's nuclear test.

A military attack, and the bloody war which would follow, is out of the question - because of the opposition of the South Korean public and government (as well as the US public). Even a focused commando style raid is impossible, because nobody knows where the remaining warheads are hidden. A naval blockade won't achieve very much because North Korea has minimal maritime trade. Even if economic sanctions are imposed they will hurt ordinary people, but not bring down the government. Ten years ago, perhaps several million North Koreans died in a famine. If that failed to bring down the government, nothing the west can engineer will succeed.

In any case, Russia and China don't want the government to fall because they (understandably) fear the consequences - refugees, chronic instability, an East Asian Iraq on their door step. They will play along with sanctions for a while, but not agree to anything that looks as if it might work.

The only solution is the one which the South Korean government has promoted all along (and which the US government supported until the advent of George Bush): engagement, a long, patient process of drawing the country out of its shell and enabling North Koreans to see what a dreadful - but not hopeless mess - their leaders have got them into. That's not going to happen under George Bush, under whose presidency a manageable situation in Korea has got out of control. In a sense, the government in Pyongyang is only going to change if the governmentn in Washington changes first.

More soon ...

Comments

[Will Poulson]

Warhead? That is such a specific word

Do you really feel such a word is appropriate?

[JOHNSMITH]

WHO SAID;-
"WHAT GOES ROUND..COMES ROUND"

[Ed Stokes]

"George Bush, under whose presidency a manageable situation in Korea has got out of control"... You've got to be kidding, right? The "Norks", as you call them, have a bomb today because those idiots, Carter and Clinton, subsidised them for 10 years while they built it! This is the Carter/Clinton bomb, and when it's dropped on San Francisco or Seattle, we WILL remember who to thank for it.

[timothy]

Engagement eh? Then all will be well? Well. If I was burning leaves in my garden and I was your neighbour, and you did not like it but decided to actively engage with me, would I really stop? Maybe. If you were nice. But if I am not nice at all, would I?
Burma, to take another awkward country, has active engagement with a lot of countries like Singapore which...er....seems to encourage the Burmese junta to carry on regardless.
I am not a great admirer of Bush but I have found, sadly found, that a lot of people, especially in Asia, respect a firm hand.

[John Smitherson]

Keep watching Fox and sippin the cool aid Ed...

[Andy Dawson]

Riiiight.....

in '94 we had a "manageable situation" did we?

When the "Norks" reneged on the Carter deal (wand who but that idiot would ever have taken assurances from Kim seriously?). Recall, it fell apart because from day one North Korea concealed the amount of plutonium it's made an Yongbon.

Did we have a "manageable situation" in '97, when Kim started a secret, parallel, enriched uranium programme, that only came to light in 2001?

Don't kid yourself, Richard. This situation has never been "managed" - North Korea simply isn't manageable. The only difference now is consequence of spinelessness is now visible - and the Pyongyang regime is now even more entrenched than before.

[Alex]

The nuclear energy achievement is irreversible process. This is an inherent step of any country being enough developed economically for it. Although the case of North Korea is out of concept of - normal state. It should put on the alert of many people that they go ahead with nuclear weapon. What a shame that despite a loud reactions it is impossible to act upon them seriously.

[Sean]

At the moment, the world stands in a catch 22. Unable to mend ties, trade, and help the impovershed country as it would be a message to the world: Build nuclear weapons and we will help you.

Perhaps this is a chance to think about going out of our way and help other "would be nuclear states" such as Iran. Rewarding the non-nuclear states may be in the end, the only lesson we can learn from this.

[Stevie]

China is key.
http://english.ohmynews.com/articleview/article_view.asp?article_class=13&no=321523&rel_no=1

[John Chuckman]

Whatever one may think of North Korea's nuclear test, we have Bush to thank for it.

Bush came into office, blindly sweeping aside the work of many people far more able than himself. He has made a complete botch of every aspect of foreign policy.

The real nightmare ahead is that we have two more years to endure America's first certified-moron president.

[Phil Jones]

A non-nuclear North Korea certainly sounds more manageable than the one we have now. But why we poiting fingers US presidents. Didn't China make N.Korea what it is today? Shouldn't we be asking what are new chums in Beijing have been doing?

[Chris Creighton]

I have a quibble about your column and two comments.

I think you should reconsider "warhead." They carried out a successful test. We have no knowledge of how large their bomb was but it is unlikely they have managed to make anything small enough to fit on the top of a Taepodong 2. For a while I guess.

Comment 1. I think the South Korean sunshine policy is driven by the idea that their relatives across the DMZ would never, ever, ever, never, no way, impossible ...! carry out an attack. Rather than any blood ties, however, I think it is the 30000 US soldiers (hostages) that guarantee the status quo. Of course when the Norks are able to put warheads on missiles then all the previous calculations are thrown out the window.
2. Proliferation control has been a joke and will remain so unless the nuclear powers get rid of their arsenals. Oh well.

Thank you for your reporting.

[Raj]

timothy is, sadly, right in many respects. A lot of Asians do not respect "nice" people. They might praise them, but they'll still ignore them. The only thing that will make them chance their minds is being pushed towards submission.

Now let's look at North Korea. Some people imply that imposing tough restrictions on them would "back them into a corner" where they might do unpredictable things. Like what? Invade South Korea? Fire off a nuke?

What these morons fail to realise is that there is one thing the North Koreans cherish over everything else - survival. They would only use military force if they were attacked. They will not respond to economic punishment with force because that would mean the end for them. If pushed they will fall over and come crawling back to the negotiating table. So the way to deal with this is to put tougher sanctions on them and wait it out, while of course stating that negotiations can resume if they have no pre-conditions.

[john gregory Flinn]

I thought I'd try a repeat as well...
The Koreans have many negotiating techniques most of which are designed to fool their adversary, but generally have a strategic objective in view.
They understand the power of the media in the west, its amorality and its capability for wishful thinking.
The North Koreans have American/Western aid as a prime objective. Their claim for "security" is double-speak for this, because they know that such aid will bring security.
A lesser, secondary objective is to achieve reunification but on their terms -this is what Kim Dae Jung was trying to engineer.
With aid their aim is to strengthen and rebuild their own regime to rival the south, and thus achieve the second objective. Without such aid their regime is vulnerable, but they are counting on the usual thinking like you suggest - "But what is the alternative?."
They also know that we think such aid will render their regime more susceptible to our blandishments and gradually become less extreme etc, etc.
It will not make a jot of difference; because, as you say 'they will lie and cheat and take the piss'. Also Koreans have had to endure centuries of persecution, threats, war and isolation from the Japanese and Chinese, yet they still remain a formidable, independent racial group. So a bit of soft-centred pressure from the west is nothing in comparison.

Have they got nuclear warheads? It seems they might have. Their obvious next step is to complete a delivery system - to where? To wherever the West feels most sensitive/vulnerable!
I'm not privy to what talks have gone on with North Korea, but you can bet that they will have ascertained from them or elsewhere, exactly where to threaten.
That will be the step after next.

Engagement by the South alone is ok. They are all Koreans after all, and some useful trade and other stuff emerges. The only problem with this is that N.Korea may perceive it as a way to Western aid generally as well, which is a no, no...!

Keep them where they are. Do not grant western aid at all. What are they going to do? Bomb us into giving it to them?
Any attack on the south will reveal to the north's soldiers just how big is the lie they have been told over the years, and seriously risk wholesale defection. (This did not happen in 1950 because the south was probably poorer then - but no longer....)

The Chinese and the Japanese reactions and their consequent policies to this test are the most important, and will be watched with interest because they are closest to any threat at the moment.

Finally, I really find it a puzzle when 'everybody and his dog' says how unpredictable the North Koreans are.
They are totally predictable. Just dispense with the 'wishful thinking' and the 'do-gooder' mentality and there you have it...!

[DATA]

Hi Richard,

I sympathize you for your busy schedule travelling around Asia. Mr. Kim certainly has made your life more interesting.

Readers of your weblog seem to be very keen about the choice of words. I do not have much difficulty seeing words like "warheads" or "Norks" in your articles. It would be quite irrational to think that North Koreans would wait to develop any delivery system until they successfully conduct nuclear tests. The assumption of "Norks" hiding their warheads does not necessarily surprise me.

Rather, the word, "Rising Sun," which you used for describing Japanese flags may not be accurate for a journalist. I believe the word is associated more with those flags used in the old Imperial Navy, or the current MSDF vessels. I think you know which flag I am referring to. The one which Asahi Shimbun still uses today... In any event, this is a very minor point, I know.

On an important point, regarding the possible way of engagement which many readers seem to be skeptical, I think imposing harsher sanction may still work (however imperfect it maybe) for the North Koreans.

It is true that the Russians and the Chinese are not enthusiastic about imposing sanctions to the North Koreans, the measures taken by the US and Japan has certainly made impact to the Kim's regime. The very loud criticism voiced from Pyongyang towards the US sanction of shutting down the NK's account in Macau should not be underestimated.

I am not sure when the US and Japan are going to announce their addtional measures (may be with the new "coalition of the willing"), the response of South Korea to them will be very interesting to see.

Look forward to reading more of your report.

[Douglas Hatch]

The short memories we all have.
North Korea prolonged the Korean War with agonizing negotiations in the middle of a war which did as much or more damage to them, as it did to the South.
And since the North Korean regime has lived in a state of armed
preparedness for a war which has never come, all while millions of North Koreans have starved.
Through the years periodically the government of the GREAT LEADER and the DEAR LEADER has perfomed ever growing outrages from seizure of a U.S. Naval vessel, blowing up airliners, seizing and forcing Japanese to teach their spies, to other acts which some of which border on the weird, make one wonder if one can believe anything which comes out of this government.
Add to that the recent announcement that the politically astute DPRK have branded the Bush administration as too
"dysfunctional" and won't talk to the U.S. until the next administration changes, it begs the question just what kind of talks will go on.
Bush has largely been an idiot, but considering just what kind of people the GREAT LEADER and the DEAR LEADER are, it does beg the question, wouldn't they have gone ahead with a bomb anyways, and come up with an excuse later?

[bugiewugie]

Perhaps we need to keep a sense of proportion and not get our missiles in a twist

"As first tests go, this is smaller and less successful than those of the other nuclear powers,”

this is according to Philip E. Coyle III, 'a former director of weapons testing at the Pentagon and former director of nuclear testing for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory'. See the NY Times andor defensetech.org.

The hypocrisy's outstanding isn't it?

[Alexandra Willoughby]

I worked in Vietnam for quite a while and now live in Seoul so I am really worried. Whenever I talk to my Korean colleagues - who are highly educated and well-travelled-about North Korea, they always emphasize that the situation is fine; North Koreans people are their relatives, peaceful and friendly. Even now, they still sing this very same tune, which is really worrying. From what I've learnt from the Vietnamese people's experience, isolation and government brainwashing can do wonder to one's rationality. Looking back at the Vietnamese war (which I am sure nobody bothers about anymore), one can see that the people there did a lot of things that people in the West would not consider possible or rational. And guess what? They won the war. They did not care how many people they had to sacrifice to unify the country and to get rid of the Americans/South Vietnamese regime combo. Talking to the Vietnamese now, they are astounded that they themself possessed that single-mindedness then.

So please do not think North Koreans won't invade South Korea or fire up some nuclear warheads. Nothing is important to them but their idea
ology.