On a drip

UPDATE BELOW!

Shinzo Abe - who technically remains prime minister until the election of his successor - has gone to hospital "because he feels unwell", according to the chief cabinet secretary, Kaoru Yosano. At this point, we are told, there is no question of his duties being taken over by a deputy (this would be Yosano himself), as they were, for example, after ex-PM Keizo Obuchi's fatal stroke in 2000.

The most striking lines in the brief report on Kyodo News are:

According to sources close to the prime minister, Abe has recently been suffering from a weak stomach, and porridge has been a source of nourishment.

During his visit to India and other Asian countries in August, he specially asked for food that was easy to digest, and not the spicy local cuisine, the sources said.

After he returned from his Asian tour, he sometimes received intravenous fluids at the prime minister's official residence, they said.

It would be easy to read too much into this. Japanese doctors whip out the saline drip at the slightest excuse (stubbed toes, chilblains, tennis elbow etc). And going into hospital - usually in a wheelchair with one of those old biddy rugs folded across the knee - is one of the standard, sympathy-buying responses of politicians and businessmen to imminent criminal investigations and scandals, such as the one allgedly bearing down on Shinzo. (for more on all of this see my news story in today's paper).

But could this be more serious?

There have been vague rumours for a while that Mr Abe suffers from poor health. Last night, a Japanese MP of the ruling bloc told me that it's an open secret in Nagatacho that in the past he underwent successful surgery for bowel cancer. Might this have returned?

This morning's papers also report that Aso will announce his candidacy today. So far there seems to be no certainty that anyone will oppose him.

Here's my analysis from today's Times:

The sudden and unexplained resignation of a prime minister would be high drama in any country but in Japan, where politics generally moves at a predictable pace, the fall of Shinzo Abe was a sensation. Last night politicians, journalists and baffled voters were preoccupied both by speculation about why he chose to quit, so soon after insisting he would stay on – and about what it means for Japan in the future.

The range of possibilities is thrillingly and alarmingly broad. By this winter, Mr Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party could be holding steady under a new and more assured leader – most likely, the lordly, nationalistic former foreign minister, Taro Aso. It might be governing in some kind of coalition with its recently empowered opponent, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Or conceivably it could out of power altogether, bounced out by the DPJ for only the second time in half a century.

Most likely, though, it will still be in power, but bogged down in a grinding parliamentary conflict which will certainly last for weeks and could drag on for months. Japan’s steady efforts to increase its engagement with the outside world – its dispatch of troops to Iraq and the Indian Ocean, the moves to revise the “pacifist” constitution to make such missions easier, its push for a UN seat, and its modest efforts to become involved in Middle East peace making – will be side issues until this central question is resolved. Who rules Japanese politics – the LDP, which has been in power for all but a few months of the last 52 years, or the newly empowered and increasingly confident Democrats and their leader Ichiro Ozawa?

The immediate causes of Mr Abe’s resignation – whether personal illness, mental or physical, or an imminent financial scandal - are still mysterious, but the broader pressures on him are easily understood. In a national election in July, the LDP lost control of the Upper House to the DPJ, allowing it to delay legislation and cripple Mr Abe’s legislative programme. As a consequence, Mr Abe seemed likely to fail in an urgent task - the extension of a naval mission to the Indian Ocean in support of the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

But in fact Mr Abe’s trouble began soon after he came to power at the end of September last year. His first act – a visit to China and South Korea to mend relations damaged by his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi – was a bold success. He passed a new education bill, controversially promoting “patriotic” education.

But his vision of a “Beautiful Japan”, a country defiantly unapologetic about its wartime past, and imbued with conservative values of historical pride in nation, history and race, provoked unease in as many people as they inspired. And he failed utterly in the day to day task of political management.

The indiscipline and scandals among his cabinet ministers and senior appointees, which saw four of them resign, and one of them hang himself, spoke of bad judgement, but also a lack of authority. When problems arose he was irresolute and unconvincing to an extent that made bad situations worse. It was not the fault of his government that Japan’s social security agency, for example, lost 50 million pension records. But Mr Abe’s defensive shilly-shallying attracted, rather then deflected, blame and reproach.

His predecessor Junichiro Koizumi was one of the most gifted and exciting prime ministers since the war; with his reserved and dignifed manner, Mr Abe was always put at a disadvantage by the comparison. But he came to power amid great excitement, particularly on the political right, and he was said to feel a sense of personal destiny in succeeding to a job held by his grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, and narrowly missed by his father, Shintaro Abe. With just under a year in office, he will go down in history as one of Japan’s political also rans, a failure soon to be forgotten. For a man of such obvious pride, it is hard to imagine a more painful exit.

UPDATE:

Abe will spend "three or four days" in hospital with what sounds like a combination of irritable bowel syndrome, excessive weight loss (he's been living off oatmeal), and simple depression at the crappy turn which his life and ambitions have taken over the past year.

Fukushiro Nukaga, the current finance minister, has announced his candidacy, and Sadakazu Tanigaki, formerly in the same job, may do the same. But the real contest seems to be between Aso and Yasuo Fukuda, the rather boring, but deeply reliable, former chief cabinet secretary. The formal nominations will be filed tomorrow, and voting will be on 23rd September.

More soon, I expect.

Comments

[Andrew Milner]

Welcome back. Thought the Bogie Man had got you.