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Abhisit at Oxford: the cow manure flies

The Thai prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, gave his speech on democracy at St John's College, Oxford on Saturday and, as I counselled in my op-ed the day before, no one threw a shoe - or even a sock - at him. But there was a contingent of protesters, including the character above, who made clear their scepticism about Mr Abhisit's version of democracy. The photograph above is from here (the text is all in Thai; scroll down past it for the pictures) which has more pictures of the demo.

I wasn't there, of course, but it sounds as if Abhisit gave a good account of himself. There's a very comprehensive report on the excellent New Mandala website here; and a few minutes of the Q&A session here on YouTube.

The highlight of the morning seems to have been the head-to-head between Abhisit and Giles Ji Ungpakorn, the left wing academic and professor of Chulalongkorn University, who went into exile in Britain after lèse-majesté charges were brought against him. In an email circular after the event, Prof Giles said that "the majority of Thais and anyone else in the international community with a simple knowledge about Thai politics would not have been taken in. Two exceptions were the Vice Chancellor of Oxford University and the President of St John’s College who, like a couple of bumbling fools, praised Abhisit’s ‘commitment to Democracy’.”

Also struck by Abhisit in Oxford was Britain's ambassador to Thailand, Quinton Quayle, who responded to questions from The Nation. "He showed, both by his words and actions, that he wants to promote democratic debate about the future of Thailand," the ambassador told the paper.

"His willingness to engage in an open and frank discussion, including on sensitive issues, impressed his audience. He showed that he is ready to listen to the point of view both of those who agree and disagree with his government and to give answers to the key questions of most concern in Thailand. The discussion that took place at Oxford University on March 14 is a good model for future debate in Thailand."

Now, one wouldn't ever expect an ambassador to be completely frank about the leader of the government to which he is credentialled. But this is rather more carefully phrased than The Nation's headline - 'PM wins hearts in UK by engaging in "open and frank discussion"' - allows. I don't know whether Mr Quayle was present at St John's or not. If he wasn't, he is not really in a position to speak on behalf of its audience. Even from a distance it is obvious that, far from being unanimously "impressed", it was deeply divided over what Abhisit had to say - as Thailand is about Abhisit in general.

And such an open, unfettered and fearless debate could never take place in Thailand at the moment. Giles Ungpakorn wouldn't be there, for a start: he'd be locked up, for writing a book. And no Thai who wished to stay out of jail would dare to stand up and ask the frank questions about lèse-majesté which the Oxford audience put on Saturday. Abhisit may have said that he wants to promote democratic debate in Thailand, but whether he really intends to, or even has the power to do so, is another question yet to be settled. Perhaps his hands are tied by his PAD/military supporters; perhaps, having achieved power, he now finds that a certain amount of fear and hesitancy on the part of the population is an advantage. I sense that Ambassador Quayle is aware of these subtleties, hence his nuanced reference to the St John's speech as "a good model for future debate in Thailand" (my italics).

Finally, my piece on Friday drew a rather baffling rebuttal in the Bangkok Post. The only bit I can properly follow is where the columnist likens my writing to "cow manure". Now that's what I call democratic debate!

Days of The Rat: Predictions for 2008

[Tokyo, late December, the blackest hour of the night. At the door of my apartment, a feeble, scratching knock. Outside stands a man so ancient that it is impossible even to guess his age. His dark skin is papery and wrinkled, his eyes are brown pools, and his earlobes hang loose from the weight of the polished rhinoceros horns which pierce them. He presses an object into my hand, picks up his blow pipe, and melts into the night.

It is a twist of parchment containing three or four lumps of a dried out, woody substance. My sniffs of gratification turn into cackles of triumph. My wishes have been granted. My dreams have come true. The future is mine!

Every year this blog solicits predictions for the year ahead from Asia’s most renowned prophets and soothsayers. The results have been lamentable. The Sage of Singapore, whom I consulted for 2006, was a bit of a disappointment. Madam Sosostris, last year’s featured soothsayer, was a disgrace! What was the fatuous old trout on about?

This year I decided to take matters into my own hands. Through contacts among the Dayak people of Borneo, I acquired certain . . . substances, harvested from the rain forest by the timanggong, or animist wizards. When inhaled, in combination with the correct incantations, they open invisible doors which allow glimpses of the future. Men of weak spirit would be driven mad by such visions, but this is a risk which I am prepared to take for you, my readers.

I drop the woody lumps, as instructed, into a cauldron of snake blood, and heat it slowly, breathing in the fumes and muttering the eldritch syllables inked on the parchment. Within moments, I am transported to the jungle. Faces painted with blood and clay flash before my eyes. My ears are filled with the sounds of insects and the screams of animals and humans. The Great Lord of the Forest taps me on the shoulder and whispers in my ear . . . Here is what I see in 2008, Heisei 20, the Year of the Rat . . . ]

Man City boss: is he evil?

Until a few weeks ago months ago, when I wrote stories about Thaksin Shinawatra, I identified him with the simple formula "deposed prime minister of Thailand" and filed them to the Foreign Editor. Since then he has risen to become something much more important than a foreign head of government - the owner of a Premiership football team. These days in The Times, he is "Man City boss", first and foremost; my story in today's paper ran in the Sports pages.

Since Thaksin's footie acquisition, there's been a lot written about him in the British papers, a lot more than when he was merely one of the richest and most powerful men in south-east Asia. But no consensus has really emerged on what to make of him. Reduced to its essentials the question seems to be: is this man evil? or, put with a little more sophistication, is he fit for the honour of running one of our venerable Association Football clubs? Is he a classic Asian despot who has fled to our shores after being driven out by his brave people, and who is now sinking his blood-soaked talons into one a prized sporting institution? Or a brilliant businessman and visionary leader who has been shamefully tumbled from power by a clique of unelected generals?

It's a surprisingly difficult question to answer. But here is my stab at Thaksin-in-a-nutshell.

Reboot

I had an interesting interview yesterday with Major-General Thawip Netniyom. The General is head of the Thai armed forces' IT division, which I suppose makes him Military Geek-in-Chief. He spoke of last week's coup in intriguingly technological terms. "Sometimes, to break the deadlock, someone has to do something," he said. "Just like when your computer is hung and you cannot do anything about it, what you’re going to do is push the reset button or unplug it and that’s the only way to solve it.”

A fascinating vein of metaphor opens up (if that's not a mixed metaphor). Is that what this coup is - the equivalent of replacing Windows 97 (Constitutional Version) with Windows 2006 (Military Beta Version)? Or is it a ravaging computer virus or Trojan Horse which will slow down the performance of the Thai National Hard Drive for months and years to come?

You can read my story based on the interview here.

General Thawip said a few interesting things for which there wasn't room in today's paper.

More from Timmy the Tank

Oh dear, I think I was a little hard on the old Nation the other day. Just trying to do their job in difficult circumstances and all that (although I do think that over the past few months their understandable dislike of Thaksin has compromised their sense of balance). Stiil, I can see now that the phrase "pusillanimous, gun-licking, uniform-worshipping drivel" was a little over-excited. In my own attempt at balance, I draw your attention to this piece by the passionate and always interesting Kavi Chingkittavorn, 'Yellow ribbon coup' was a very high price to pay'.

Not to be outdone, the Banghkok Post has its own tank story on this morning's front page.

TWO KINDS OF POWER

runs the headline, followed by the standfirst:

Armoured tanks can both destroy buildings and enchant children

Crass, Insensitive Thai Coup Headline Of The Day

From this morning's Nation:

'Tanks' a million, say fascinated fans

It should have been a day of fear and tension, but many people in Bangkok found the military hardware parked at city intersections yesterday a cause for enjoyment. They stopped, looked over the tanks and troops, chatted with the soldiers, even brought their kids for photographs in front of the machines of war on the day after the coup.

It was a rare chance for many city folk to get up-close and friendly with a tank, as the armed forces are deployed in Bangkok after taking over the country.

Read the rest of the pusillanimous, gun-licking, uniform-worshipping drivel on your own here ...

Tanks on the street

The phrase "military coup" has a dated, quaint feel to it, I've always thought - a very 20th century phenomenon, not the kind of thing to happen in places with branches of Boots and broadband Internet connections. And yet it has happened, in Bangkok (which has both of these conveniences in abundance). It was rumoured, of course, especially earlier in the year when the pressure on Thaksin was so much more vocal and visible, but I always took it to be the wishful thinking of over-excited and partisan Thai journalists (of which there was a lot at that time). What a disappointment that it should happen like this, a step back to the pre-democratic bad old days.

Lord knows what will happen now. Stranded in New York, Thaksin must be a goner, I'd've thought. The ousting of a democratically elected leader will go down badly at the UN (where he will hold the floor, a few hours from now), but I can't see Bush, Blair or Koizumi holding out for such a dodgy character as Thaksin on a matter of mere principle. Whatever the King (I mean Bhumibhol, not Koizumi) says will be accepted internationally I assume.

But what about at home? What about the 60 per cent plus of Thais who voted for Thaksin in the last two elections? They're in the countryside, for a start, disadvantaged both by geography and resources compared to the middle class anti-Thaksin brigade in Bangkok. And they won't want to contradict the King either. If he endorses the result of the coup, then my guess is that it will stand.

I'm due to get on a flight from Tokyo to Bangkok in a few hours, so more tomorrow, I hope, from the scene ...

Thaksin will resign ...

... but he'll stay on as caretaker prime minister until the next parliament convenes. Given that they are 39 vacant seats and a lot of by-elections short of a parliament, this will not be for a good few weeks.

He's going to go, then, but he's bought some time. What's he going to do with it?

A Royal Red Card?

Bangkok, 8.25pm

The word among Thai journalists is that Thaksin is about to resign as prime minister - or take a "career break", as he will probably put it.

He went into to see King Bhumibol this afternoon. It was presented as a routine chat. The asumption must be that the King gave him a royal bollocking reprimand, and told him that he has to go.

He's supposed to give a press conference in 10 minutes, although my guess is that it will be delayed.

I'll update when I know more.

Tweet, tweet, Thaksin

I'm in Bangkok reporting on the election. My news story is in the newspaper and online here. I'll try to post on the subject tomorrow.

"After the election, everyone should turn and face each other," Thaksin said on saturday. "It's like a game, a sport. After the whistle is blown, 'tweet,' the game is over and everyone has to shake hands." Fat chance. The election is not going to change very much at all: the squabbling and legal challenges will go on for weeks.