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Days of The Rat: Predictions for 2008

[Tokyo, late December, the blackest hour of the night. At the door of my apartment, a feeble, scratching knock. Outside stands a man so ancient that it is impossible even to guess his age. His dark skin is papery and wrinkled, his eyes are brown pools, and his earlobes hang loose from the weight of the polished rhinoceros horns which pierce them. He presses an object into my hand, picks up his blow pipe, and melts into the night.

It is a twist of parchment containing three or four lumps of a dried out, woody substance. My sniffs of gratification turn into cackles of triumph. My wishes have been granted. My dreams have come true. The future is mine!

Every year this blog solicits predictions for the year ahead from Asia’s most renowned prophets and soothsayers. The results have been lamentable. The Sage of Singapore, whom I consulted for 2006, was a bit of a disappointment. Madam Sosostris, last year’s featured soothsayer, was a disgrace! What was the fatuous old trout on about?

This year I decided to take matters into my own hands. Through contacts among the Dayak people of Borneo, I acquired certain . . . substances, harvested from the rain forest by the timanggong, or animist wizards. When inhaled, in combination with the correct incantations, they open invisible doors which allow glimpses of the future. Men of weak spirit would be driven mad by such visions, but this is a risk which I am prepared to take for you, my readers.

I drop the woody lumps, as instructed, into a cauldron of snake blood, and heat it slowly, breathing in the fumes and muttering the eldritch syllables inked on the parchment. Within moments, I am transported to the jungle. Faces painted with blood and clay flash before my eyes. My ears are filled with the sounds of insects and the screams of animals and humans. The Great Lord of the Forest taps me on the shoulder and whispers in my ear . . . Here is what I see in 2008, Heisei 20, the Year of the Rat . . . ]

Man City boss: is he evil?

Until a few weeks ago months ago, when I wrote stories about Thaksin Shinawatra, I identified him with the simple formula "deposed prime minister of Thailand" and filed them to the Foreign Editor. Since then he has risen to become something much more important than a foreign head of government - the owner of a Premiership football team. These days in The Times, he is "Man City boss", first and foremost; my story in today's paper ran in the Sports pages.

Since Thaksin's footie acquisition, there's been a lot written about him in the British papers, a lot more than when he was merely one of the richest and most powerful men in south-east Asia. But no consensus has really emerged on what to make of him. Reduced to its essentials the question seems to be: is this man evil? or, put with a little more sophistication, is he fit for the honour of running one of our venerable Association Football clubs? Is he a classic Asian despot who has fled to our shores after being driven out by his brave people, and who is now sinking his blood-soaked talons into one a prized sporting institution? Or a brilliant businessman and visionary leader who has been shamefully tumbled from power by a clique of unelected generals?

It's a surprisingly difficult question to answer. But here is my stab at Thaksin-in-a-nutshell.

Reboot

I had an interesting interview yesterday with Major-General Thawip Netniyom. The General is head of the Thai armed forces' IT division, which I suppose makes him Military Geek-in-Chief. He spoke of last week's coup in intriguingly technological terms. "Sometimes, to break the deadlock, someone has to do something," he said. "Just like when your computer is hung and you cannot do anything about it, what you’re going to do is push the reset button or unplug it and that’s the only way to solve it.”

A fascinating vein of metaphor opens up (if that's not a mixed metaphor). Is that what this coup is - the equivalent of replacing Windows 97 (Constitutional Version) with Windows 2006 (Military Beta Version)? Or is it a ravaging computer virus or Trojan Horse which will slow down the performance of the Thai National Hard Drive for months and years to come?

You can read my story based on the interview here.

General Thawip said a few interesting things for which there wasn't room in today's paper.

More from Timmy the Tank

Oh dear, I think I was a little hard on the old Nation the other day. Just trying to do their job in difficult circumstances and all that (although I do think that over the past few months their understandable dislike of Thaksin has compromised their sense of balance). Stiil, I can see now that the phrase "pusillanimous, gun-licking, uniform-worshipping drivel" was a little over-excited. In my own attempt at balance, I draw your attention to this piece by the passionate and always interesting Kavi Chingkittavorn, 'Yellow ribbon coup' was a very high price to pay'.

Not to be outdone, the Banghkok Post has its own tank story on this morning's front page.

TWO KINDS OF POWER

runs the headline, followed by the standfirst:

Armoured tanks can both destroy buildings and enchant children

Crass, Insensitive Thai Coup Headline Of The Day

From this morning's Nation:

'Tanks' a million, say fascinated fans

It should have been a day of fear and tension, but many people in Bangkok found the military hardware parked at city intersections yesterday a cause for enjoyment. They stopped, looked over the tanks and troops, chatted with the soldiers, even brought their kids for photographs in front of the machines of war on the day after the coup.

It was a rare chance for many city folk to get up-close and friendly with a tank, as the armed forces are deployed in Bangkok after taking over the country.

Read the rest of the pusillanimous, gun-licking, uniform-worshipping drivel on your own here ...

Tanks on the street

The phrase "military coup" has a dated, quaint feel to it, I've always thought - a very 20th century phenomenon, not the kind of thing to happen in places with branches of Boots and broadband Internet connections. And yet it has happened, in Bangkok (which has both of these conveniences in abundance). It was rumoured, of course, especially earlier in the year when the pressure on Thaksin was so much more vocal and visible, but I always took it to be the wishful thinking of over-excited and partisan Thai journalists (of which there was a lot at that time). What a disappointment that it should happen like this, a step back to the pre-democratic bad old days.

Lord knows what will happen now. Stranded in New York, Thaksin must be a goner, I'd've thought. The ousting of a democratically elected leader will go down badly at the UN (where he will hold the floor, a few hours from now), but I can't see Bush, Blair or Koizumi holding out for such a dodgy character as Thaksin on a matter of mere principle. Whatever the King (I mean Bhumibhol, not Koizumi) says will be accepted internationally I assume.

But what about at home? What about the 60 per cent plus of Thais who voted for Thaksin in the last two elections? They're in the countryside, for a start, disadvantaged both by geography and resources compared to the middle class anti-Thaksin brigade in Bangkok. And they won't want to contradict the King either. If he endorses the result of the coup, then my guess is that it will stand.

I'm due to get on a flight from Tokyo to Bangkok in a few hours, so more tomorrow, I hope, from the scene ...

Thaksin will resign ...

... but he'll stay on as caretaker prime minister until the next parliament convenes. Given that they are 39 vacant seats and a lot of by-elections short of a parliament, this will not be for a good few weeks.

He's going to go, then, but he's bought some time. What's he going to do with it?

A Royal Red Card?

Bangkok, 8.25pm

The word among Thai journalists is that Thaksin is about to resign as prime minister - or take a "career break", as he will probably put it.

He went into to see King Bhumibol this afternoon. It was presented as a routine chat. The asumption must be that the King gave him a royal bollocking reprimand, and told him that he has to go.

He's supposed to give a press conference in 10 minutes, although my guess is that it will be delayed.

I'll update when I know more.

Tweet, tweet, Thaksin

I'm in Bangkok reporting on the election. My news story is in the newspaper and online here. I'll try to post on the subject tomorrow.

"After the election, everyone should turn and face each other," Thaksin said on saturday. "It's like a game, a sport. After the whistle is blown, 'tweet,' the game is over and everyone has to shake hands." Fat chance. The election is not going to change very much at all: the squabbling and legal challenges will go on for weeks.

The Dams on the Salween River: Useful Links

Some more information and links for those interested in my story in this morning's paper about the campaign by the Karen and Karenni people of eastern Burma against the proposed dams on the Salween River - 'Sold down the river: tribe's home to be a valley of the dammed'.

The best source on the web is www.salweenwatch.org (although this has been crashing on me - is anyone else having this problem?). I can still access the PDF of the recent report on the dams, by a group of Karenni NGOs, 'Dammed by Burma's Generals'.

The Southeast Asia Rivers Network (SEARIN) has also done a lot of work on the subject, both in Thailand-Burma and on the upper stretches of the Salween in China, where it is known as the Nu. Their website has the PDF of their 2004 report ''The Salween Under Threat: Damming the Longest Free River in Southeast Asia'.

Twatchai speaks

I'm conscious that in reporting on the Thai political crisis, I have said little about its potential impact on Thailand's economy. Let me put that right immediately by drawing attention to remarks made by Twatchai Yongkittikul, secretary-general of the Thai Bankers Association, in an interview last week with ThaiDay.

"Whoever is in the next government is not so important because the fundamentals of the economy are still quite strong," Twatchai observed.

"Capacity utilisation is more than 80 per cent, so money is going to be spent once the political situtation becomes clear," Twatchai continued. "But we prefer that the process goes according to the Constitution."

Concluded Twatchai: "The election should take place. Let everything go according to the rules of the game, and if a dead end is reached then intervention would be alright."

Mini Thaksin?

The Bangkok Post and The Nation used to be two of the spunkiest and most professional English language newspapers in Asia, and it's a big disappointment that in the present crisis they should have abandoned any pretence of balance to become little more than propaganda sheets for the anti-Thaksin movement. But both of them look like the New York Times, next to ThaiDay, which comes free in Bangkok with the International Herald Tribune and is edited by the Thaksin-baiter-in-Chief, Sondhi Limthongkul.

An idea of ThaiDay's jorunalistic standards can be had from this shameful piece which ran on Wednesday, a speech by the "social critic" Sulak Sivaraksa, reprinted on the paper's Op-Ed page. In it, Mr Sivaraksa enumerates the ways in which Thaksin has violated the Five Precepts of the Buddhist Law. I'll spare you Precept Violations One, Two, Four and Five, and just give you Number Three (evidently the Nookie Precept).

"I don’t have hard evidence," begins Mr Sivaraksa. But - you've guessed it - there's a but:

Whimpering, not banging

The sense of climax generated by the big anti-Thaksin rally on Tuesday morning has passed, but old Mr T does appear to be on the back foot. At one point yesterday, he seemed to be hinting that he would "step aside" or "take a break" for a while, a frequently repeated suggestion for cooling down the protesters while saving a bit of face. Today he denied this, but said, rather ominously, that he is feeling old.

"Those who leak the news are those who want it to happen," he was quoted as saying on AP. "I am tired, I will be 57 in a few months ... When I think that enough is enough, it won't be a break."

He finally came back to Bangkok this morning, after several days touring among his fans in the north-east of Thailand. Rather humiliatingly, he had to hold the day's meeting (to plan the celebrations for the Diamond Jubilee of the King) away from his office, which is still blocked off by the remnant of the anti-Thaksin forces. And it's looking less and less likely that the 2 April election will take place or that, if it does, it will return a parliament with the full complement of 500 MPs required to choose a new government.

Is the talk of exhaustion just a cunning tactical feint to encourage overconfidence among his enemies? Or calculated self-deprecation, intended to endear him to his fans? Or is he genuinely feeling old and knackered?

I feel about as sorry for him as one can for the authoritarian billionaire prime minister of a medium-sized country.

Now, as a reward for reading  the dry analytical bit, here comes today's Scooby Snack, an inventive mixed media artwork of Thaksin as you have never seen him before (from Mango Sauce, via Cultural Snow).

View it here.

Bangkok Demo Gallery

Thaksin warned today that he will declare a state of emergency if the demonstrations against him become violent but, judging from this morning's march, that is a long way from happening. It was exemplary in its organisation and discipline. The vociferousness of the slanders against the prime minister contrasted with the remarkable civility and good nature of what he inaccurately likes to call "the mob".

I find the iconography of protest movements very interesting. Here are my rather amateurish photographs of a few memorable images of the morning.

This was the stage in the Sanam Luang field on Monday night. Note the image of Thaksin as a six-armed demon, cramming the map of Thailand into his maw. His hands contain some of the institutions which he is accused of having bought off and suborned: the iTV channel; his own conglomerate, Shin Corp; and parliament itself (top right). (The image should pop up in a larger size if you click on it.)

Ladies of the night against Thaksin

I encountered this group of ladies among the anti-Thaksin protesters along Ratchadamnoen Avenue, a few hundred yards from Government House in Bangkok.

The Thai revolution will not take place, today

Bangkok, 11.20am

The anti-Thaksin demonstration this morning was large, peaceful and impressively well organised. But Thaksin is not going to be forced to resign today or any time soon; nor will there be a crackdown, state of emergency, or other curtailment of civil liberties.

I had to take a tuk-tuk back to the hotel, and I'm cream crackered. It would have been less tiring to walk. More, after I've had a shower and a little doze.

Bangkok, Tuesday, 5.30am

I was out in Sanam Luang last night, as the anti-Thaksin demonstrators gathered for their big rally this morning. It was orderly, noisy, rude (lots of posters of Thaksin as a demon, a lizard, a Fuhrer etc), and rather uneasy. The rally organisers were speaking of rumours of their own imminent arrests and/or a declaration of martial law. The headline on the front page of this morning's Bangkok Post is "Fears of Violence". Do they genuinely believe this, or is it just another way of demonising Thaksin and ratcheting up the tension? Difficult to say. The streets all around the field were unnaturally quiet. Ordinary Thais, it seems, are cautiously keeping clear of the area, just in case.

I'm going back to the field now, where they'll begin their march on Government House in half an hour. At the moment, my money is on a peaceful demonstration and another week or two of pressure and tension before the outcome of this stand off becomes clear. I could be badly wrong, of course. I'll post again when I get the chance.

On tenterhooks in Thailand

I'm in Bangkok, waiting for the demonstration scheduled for tonight against the government of the prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. There's a lot of complicated background to this, but essentially it goes something like this.

Thaksin is a populist, especially adored in rural Thailand, who also happens to be the country's richest man. His supporters point to his 61 per cent majority in the last election which brought him 377 out of 500 parliamentary seats. His opponents, who are concentrated in Bangkok, accuse him of corruption and authoritarianism, and of having used his vast wealth to control the media and buy off the courts.

Outrage peaked in January after Thaksin sold his mobile phones and satellite TV business to the Singapore government for US$1.9 billion - and managed to avoid paying tax on the sale. Three weeks ago, he confounded his enemies by calling a general election for 2nd April - which the opposition will boycott. Eight days ago, 60,000 Thais turned out to demand his resignation in the great Sanam Luang field in central Bangkok. Tonight, the opposition will rally again, the plan being to sleep out in the open and then march tomorrow morning on Government House, where Thaksin is due to preside over the weekly cabinet meeting.

Rumors have been swirling about the potential for a military coup against Thaksin, for the declaration of a state of emergency, or for an intervention by the revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej who personally banged together the heads of the protest movement and the military government after a massacre of demonstrators in 1992. Last night, on the instructions of the Palace, all the Thai television channels broadcast in full the eight minute scolding which the King gave to the antagonists 13 years ago. "All confrontational parties suffer defeat," he told them. "The country suffers the heaviest defeat."

Plainly the King was intending to send a message by having this old message broadcast once again - but what message? This morning both sides claim that he was chastising the other. I just had coffee with Kavi Chongkittavorn of The Nation newspaper, Thailand's leading English language columnist. Kavi is in the loop (he knew about yesterday's move by the King hours before it happened). He is also a passionate and tireless opponent of Thaksin. ("No coffee for me," he said when we met. "I've got to calm down - Thaksin is giving me hypertension.")

This is what he thinks is going on:

Thaksin's Numbered Days?

I'm flying from Tokyo to Bangkok tomorrow to try to get to grips with the big demonstrations against the prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, led by, among others, the TV presenter Sondhi Limthongkul. It's a fascinating situation, which I find hard to read from my perch in Tokyo. Do the demonstrations have the potential for real violence? What roles could be played by the army and, perhap more importantly, by the Thai King? The whole situation reminds me a lot of the fall of Joseph Estrada in the Philippines in 2001. Like Thaksin, he was loathed by the city elite but adored in the villages. In the end the urban smarties got their way and Estrada was out, despite having been elected fair and square.

I'll post from Thailand whenever I have time. In the meantime here is a preliminary assessment by one of my best sources there, a man I will identify only as Jock of Bangkok. An excerpt from a recent email: