The (squeaky) voice of wisdom....and those "Fukuda Stocks"

When phrases like "global shortage" start being bandied around, you lunge for those safe havens. Some  buy gold, some buy Swiss francs. When things really get messy, some even stockpile dried food and shotgun ammo. Me, I'm going to fill a giant Montgolfier balloon with helium. Rich? I'll be rolling in it...

The sage market analysis of my sempai has bubbled to the surface amid the insanity of Japan's politics mess. It reminds me slightly of when Mohammed Al Fayed and Neil Hamilton were battling each other in court, and that curious feeling where you hoped that they would somehow BOTH lose.

Anyway, in a comment on my previous post my beloved sempai has put me right. Japan is (and I suppose one should never really forget this) crazy like a fox. Certain stocks DID shoot up when it looked like Aso might become PM. Today, now that it looks more like Yasuo Fukuda is in the frame, a whole basket of different stocks are on the move. It now increasingly looks like, in its search for a vigorous young leader, Japan may get a 71-year old version of Eric Morcambe.

Thus, Cosmo Oil is in the spotlight because Fukuda used to work for its predecessor, Maruzen Oil. Ibiden is up because Fukuda's wife's grandfather was once president of the company. Chugoku Electric, because Mrs Fukuda has relatives working there. Gun Ei Chemical  because the old boy hails from Gunma-ken. What I particularly love about the construction of this list is the unquestioned idea that, by becoming PM, Fukuda would immediately begin dishing-out untold contracts and benefits to these companies.

I imagine a bed-time conversation that goes a little like this.

Mr Fukuda: That was a lovely dinner, dear. I think I'll become Prime Minister next week.

Mrs Fukuda: Oh, it was nothing. I know you like your gyoza. Did you notice I put a little bit more ginger in them?

Mr Fukuda: Mmm, it was delicious. Anyway, g'night dear.

Mrs Fukuda: Just one thing, Yasuo. You remember my grandfather used to be president of Ibiden? Well, I was thinking...if you DO become prime minister it might be a nice thing for the company if you saw your way to putting in a massive order from the Kantei for 300,000 PC motherboards and passing a law that makes it a criminal offence not to attach at least two diesel particulate filters to every vending machine.

Mr Fukuda: Alright dear...

Semp's logic, though, reminds me rather strongly of the enormous queues that form around the lottery ticket sales booth at Ginza 9 underneath the flyover. People are quite prepared to linger for an hour and a half to buy their tickets at that precise ticket window when they could easily stroll five minutes down the road towards Shinbashi and not queue at all.

Why? Well because, statistically, a larger number of winning tickets have been sold from the Ginza 9  ticket booth than any other sales point in the country. So, statistically, by buying your ticket there you are  "raising" your chances of winning, even if the actual odds remain staunchly unchanged. The fact that, because of the above belief, more people buy their tickets there than at any other booth in the country, means that the same brilliant circularity continues forever. Please. Somebody. Tell me what is wrong with  this logic and why I'm stupid for joining the Ginza 9 queue....

On a lighter (snigger) note, I am still trying to calculate the appalling implications of a small story in the Yomiuri this morning. "Helium shortage could hit Japanese firms". This dreadful revelation includes a warning that even NASA has been forced to cut back on its helium usage as the global shortage of the second simplest atom in the universe takes its toll. Imagine trying to explain to future generations how we squandered our helium, wasting the bounty of mother earth on amusingly shaped balloons, squeaky voices and,, er, arc-welding.

Clearly helium, like silicon, is plentiful but because it has to be processed before it can be used to make semi-conductors, coolants and all the other gubbins, there is always the potential for a supply-demand imbalance. Some believe it has to do with the Chinese welding-together buildings at an absurd rate. Personally, I blame dead American billionaires who have selfishly demanded to be cryogenically frozen. Dig up their congealed cadavers now, I say...the world needs the helium!