Less Than A Snowball's Chance

Ron Paul won't even come close to becoming the Republicans' "dark horse".  As Tom Baldwin writes in today's Times:

"Like Howard Dean four years ago, it is the Internet and a host of unofficial websites that are propelling him forward: Mr Paul’s name is the most searched of any candidate, his YouTube videos are the most watched and he regularly wins online polls after Republican presidential debates.

Unlike Mr Dean, who came close to winning the 2004 Democratic nomination, Mr Paul stands no chance of becoming the Republicans’ 2008 nominee. In national opinion polls he barely registers, and even in New Hampshire – the “live free or die” state – he gets an average of only 3.6 per cent support, according to Real Clear Politics.com which tracks such surveys."

Ron Paul benefits from having a small army of die-hard supporters who are obsessively committed to his campaign.   Not only are they willing to donate money, but they also spam Internet and cell phone polls and post harassing on comments on blogs that don't buy into the whole Ron Paul "`Revolution".  In fact, the methods of Ron Paul supporters have become somewhat of a joke in the right-wing blogosphere.

Paul's views are way beyond the mainstream of the Republican party and of the country as a whole (for goodness sakes, he seriously believes the US should return to the gold standard!).  Yes, I admit that the ability to raise $4 million over the Internet in one day is truly impressive.  But let's not hastily assume that cash contributions and Internet polls are an accurate measure of Paul's support.

Comments

[Christopher Hobe Morrison]

First I am an Obama supporter and Democrat.

Second Ron Paul's ideas may be strange, but at least we know what they are. which is refreshing. They are his, not developed through a focus group.

Third, he probably chose to run as a Republican because it gets him more coverage than he could get as a Libertarian.

[Douglass]

Ron Paul registers low in those opinion polls because they survey a very small group of the population which conists mainly of older-aged voters. Many only poll voters who voted in the last Republican Presidential Primary, which of course was Bush's reelection campaign. Ron Paul is dominating straw polls throughout the country and raising a comparable amount of money to the other top candidates.

Paul's views do fit with the traditional platform of the Republican party, a platform that Bush was elected on in 2000 and has not acted on throughout his presidency.

Considering his rate of growth, fundraising success and grassroots strength, Paul has a significant chance of winning primaries and the nomination.

Finally, the Iraq War is the most important issue in America right now. Paul has voted against it from the beginning and pledges to withdraw American forces immediately. He is stronger on this issue than any other candidate. America has always elected Presidents who ran against war, not for it. They will vote that way in 2008, which means that they will vote for Ron Paul.

[Stephen A.]

Ron Paul IS a joke, and cannot win. But the joke witll be on the American Republican Party if his socially anarchistic, isolationist view becomes identified in any way with the Grand Old Party.

There is a huge chasm of difference between a Libertarian like Paul and his small legion of anarchists and Republicans and Republicanism. Republicans, for example, understand how foolish it would be for the Federal Reserve to be eliminated, and have politicians in Congress set interest rates in their place.

We also understand that the 9/11 conspiracy theories these Paulbots are pushing are quite insane, and won't sell at the ballot box. I don't know where these bunker-dwelling extremists were on 9/11/2001, but I actually saw these planes fly into the buildings on TV - and replayed over and over and over again. It wasn't a "controlled explosion" and frankly, Pres. Bush wasn't bright enough to have pulled it off, logistically, just 8 months into his presidency. Remember Katrina, folks?

As for winning primaries, he will not. He's so far out of the mainstream, even a well-funded hate group like his can't fool enough Republicans to win.

[Andy]

Never mind the fact that he's come first in about half the straw polls (almost all of the recent straw polls), and most of those were landslide wins?

So he's got:

1 - a huge internet following
2 - a huge number of grassroots supporters who self-organise to contribute not only by donating (average donation is $100 by the way - damn those "spammers" right?) but also by volunteering
3 - An impressive set of straw poll wins.

On the other hand

1 - The idiotic and unscientific polls put him at around 5%

I see a serious inconsistency here. As part of the mainstream media, I'm hardly surprised by your mud-slingling. It's because you're terrified of this truly honourable man becoming president.

[L. A. Dietz]

Educating Stephen A. :
www.ronpaullibrary.org

[L. A. Dietz]

Badmouthing Ron Paul won't get you anywhere, Stephen A.
Any reasonable person can google Ron Paul and then dismiss your diatribe as sheer nonsense.

Try www.ronpaullibrary.org

[Stephen A.]

Hey, LA Dietz, Just so you know, I'm not trying to win over the PaulBots, I'm trying to warn conservative Republicans that this man is danagerous, and his social libertinism, isolationist foreign policy, Robber Baron econoimics, and Revisionist History on the Constitution are destructive, as well as bad for the nation and for the Republican Party.

Everything I said is true about Ron Paul and his (few) followers. I urge people to Google him, too.

[Matt Myers]

America is facing bankruptcy

The only candidate who will face this fact is Ron Paul, and a lot of Americans are beginning to understand why

[Bill Bonville]

Ron Paul is dangerous. He is making ordinary people aware that the USA's days as a superpower are numbered, that the dollar as the world's reserve currency is dieing, and that current policy is a sure recipe for economic and political disaster. Protect yourself. Vote for Ron Paul.

[Victoria S.]

Are you media-types on both sides of the Atlantic, ever going to have a lot of egg on your faces when Ron Paul wins the 2008 Presidential election. I'm Canadian and I could only wish we had such a man to vote for-he's making Americans the envy of the world again (he has Meetup groups all over the world, unlike any other of the candidates). All you have to do is read his 'Myspace' page to see that his support is far greater than the mainstream media wishes to believe. Many of those posting talk of 'converting' whole families to the 'Ron Paul Revolution' and these folks don't show up in the polls. Honestly, how can anyone but a slave to the elite who run this world have any problem with Dr. Paul's message of freedom & liberty for all and far less government interference in people's lives?