Don't count the Republicans out

Sometimes it feels that the Republican Party is Cinderella in this particular pantomime.

The stellar candidacies of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, both crackling with historic potential, are attracting most of the attention and a lot more money than the GOP is getting (Yes, I know Ron Paul raised squillions in the last quarter, but it still wasn't as much as Clinton/Obama).

For Democrats, there is the exciting - positive -  prospect of electing a black, or woman, president for the first time. On the Republican side there is the first Mormon, the first double-divorcee  and, ah yes, Ron Paul.

John McCain, who would be the oldest president ever elected for a first term, is said to be running as the "least unacceptable" Republican candidate in an election where the party' fragile coalition appears to in danger of disintegrating. 

But in any other year, the media would be tumescent with a Republican race that still has six (more-or-less) viable candidates still running after Iowa and New Hampshire.

And, while Republican turnout in Iowa fell far short of the Democratic total, the two parties were not so far apart in New Hampshire. Certainly, if the raucus street scenes in down-town Manchester were anything go by  (admittedly, not a very scientific test) there is youthful conservative enthusiasm around for candidates to tap.

Nor should it be forgotten that the Republican National Committee is still raising more cash than its Democratic counterpart, perhaps because it serves as a savings account until the money-bags establishment agrees on a candidate.    

It is possible to write a script by which Clinton and Obama beat eachother up over the next few months, with the eventual winner limping damaged towards a November general election in which the media will be heartily sick of his or her story.

Their Republican opponent, in the mean time, may have benefitted from the absence of too much limelight, too early.

And, remember what happened to Cinderella eventually? She went to (inaugural) ball with her Prince Charming

Comments

[The Exorcist]

Mr. Baldwin makes some very good points here. Another consideration that seems to be lost on the MSM is the fact that before Hillary cried, she suffered in the debates amongst Democrats.

Once the GOP nominates their candidate, it will only be Hillary vs. GOP Candidate. And if anyone thinks she won't face far more searing scrutiny once this race is down to mano-y-mano, they've seriously "misunderestimated" the GOP machine.

Hillary is going to lose in the general election, no matter who the GOP candidate is. And not because she is a woman, but rather, because she is THAT woman.

[T. Fishler]

I think the title expresses correctly the feelings. I believe the conservative America will not elect a woman as president and surely not a half black (except perhaps if this would be Colin Powell)

[ONE WHO SEES]

You are correct Tom. 3 or 4 race horses (republican candidates) neck and neck for much of the race is far more exciting than the alternative for the majority of moderate voters. And moderate women voters with character (pro-life), do not like Hillary, they're not just indifferent, they truly do not like her. The rest of us in the middle look at her as perhaps, a Billary. And Barak is just too young. A sincere look at U.S. demographics tells the story for him. The majority of moderate voters are now approaching an age group that will lean towards a canditate with actual governing experience as an effective administrator, not a legislator.

[marsum42]

This race will be a Republican win, as it should be. There is, frankly, no other choice. The world is too dangerous a place right now to put OBama in that seat - not NEARLY enough experience. And people simply do not trust the Clinton's, especially Hillary.

[topi]

Just because mitt romney is 12th march against 10 march osama bin laden .......will he be president ?? Gordon brown UK is 8 march.................looks like star wars ......

[Doug from Maine]

reply to MARSUM42:
It's time to kill the experience argument.
Your comment would be laughable if it were not such a serious topic. My guess is you don't know the second thing about Obama's experience. And that's not even my point. Judgement is a much higher priority for the highest office than experience. True leadership is a much higher priority for the presidency than experience. The experience arguement is a red herring. There is no candidate who truly has 'experience' comprable to being the leader of our great nation. (I won't even discuss GWB's prior experience.) Judgment, Leadership, Integrity are qualities we should be judging on. Americans dearly hope for someone to lead us forward from this dark place. A way forward to a new generation of hope and promise, progress and greatness. We've been dealt enough fear, we're ready for hope.

[Ann]

Majority of the people I know don't want another Republican to win. This includes many Republicans who voted for Bush in the last election.

[S Flanagan]

Simply put, the Democrats had better hope that Hillary doesn't win their nomination because she is not going to win against a Republican candidate, no matter how weak. Most Americans simply do not trust her, and no matter what she does, including crying, it is always obviously planned out, a neverending scheme. She has no real agenda other than siezing power, and it will be a shame and disgrace if the Democratic party is too shortsighted to gain the first real chance to change this country since the 1970s on her account.
I think all self-respecting American women would soon realize their folly for voting for a women just because she cried when the boys played rough with her. But then it would be too late, wouldn't it? Obama would win easily against a Republican, no matter whom they chose, Hillary would not. That's my two cents, and apparently John Kerry agrees.

[topi]

Just because mitt romney is 12th march against 10 march osama bin laden .......will he be president ?? Gordon brown UK is 8 march.................looks like star wars ......

[personinoffice]

BUSH/CLINTON/BUSH/CLINTON

That’s not a change

BUSH/CLINTON/BUSH/OBAMA

That’s a change

BUSH/CLINTON/BUSH/McCAIN

That’s a change of sorts

It could be McCain’s year

[Ron Howard]

This Democrat has voted Republican far too often and is now ready to let the Dems back in. I voted for the GOP because they promised change in their Contract with America in '94. The real issues of Social Security, National Health Care, fiscal responsibility, fair taxation, and protection of jobs was completely ignored in favor of useless military intervention, wastefull spending, inflation, and greater deficets, special treatment for the rich,and endless blather about gay marrage, abortion, church people and other mindless trivialities that went nowhere.

I know I am asking too much in seeking a President who does not lie and who is thoughtfully competent but I am willing to give the Democrats a chance to earn my vote.

[InfidelMan]

Tommy baby, wot are ye smokin over dar? All the Republicans have to do is sit back and watch the Democrats put their feet in their mouths over and over. Watch again as the left mauls itself by believing it's own version of what history was. When the two opponents are selected, all the Republicans have to do is replay all the sound-bites of the Democrats from 2001 to the present to remind the American people of who they are voting for. It would be exciting to see a woman in office, only if she was of Margaret Thatcher's caliber, not of Bullwinkle's.

[doug linman]

Mrs. Clinton's emotional response when all the chips appeared to be down for her was very distrubing. As an retired military man you cry for others whom we have lost. Crying for yourself and your own management displays a questionable character. How can anyone not truly understanding this and become an effective and thoughtful Commander In Chief. I see nothing wrong with a qualified woman president, we should remember Geraldine A. Ferraro as our first VP candidate in 1984, mature, qualified, and as Martha Stewart says' big girls do not cry!"

This weakness, in anyone managing such grave responsbility, will be our downfall.

[Witioni]

If Ron Paul were elected by the republican party, he would have the best shot at beating ANY democratic nominee. Ron Paul's message and sincerity would make Obama or Hillary look like the game playing politicians they both are. Same goes for the rest of the republicans, guitar playing and religion using Mike Huckabee included. Who can vote for a man who uses religion as a tool for votes. He emphasizes his religion in one state just to change his tune in another, NH??

[Sean Leslie]

John McCain is the American Churchill.

[Ant from italy]

Obama will be a change, Hillary can say "I know the game", Republicans can say "Nobody is happy of where America is today in the world, so way voting again for Demecratics?"
In Europe we hardly know any candidate (but Hillary). We only want to understand who will have the power and the will to change America's direction?

[mdana]

"And, while Republican turnout in Iowa fell far short of the Democratic total, the two parties were not so far apart in New Hampshire. Certainly, if the raucus street scenes in down-town Manchester were anything go by (admittedly, not a very scientific test) there is youthful conservative enthusiasm around for candidates to tap."

In New Hampshire 2000

Republican Primary 57-43% split male-female. Turnout 236,802
Democrat Primary 62-38% split female-male. Turnout 154,639

Independents
Republican Primary-32% of the electorate and McCain carried 61%. McCain got 19.5% of the independents in a race that had approx. 214,500. So McCain got 46,224 independent votes.
Democrats-40% of the electorate and Gore carried 40%. Gore got 16.0% of the independents in a race that had approx. 154,639 votes. So Gore got 24,742 independent votes.

In New Hampshire 2008

Republicans 57-43% split male-female. Approx. turnout 214,500 (-9.4% from 2000)
Democrats 57-43% split female-male. Approx. turnout 291,000 (+88.1% from 2000)

Independents
Republicans-37% of the electorate and McCain carried 40%. McCain got 14.8% of the independents in a race that had approx. 214,500. So McCain got 31,775 independent votes.
Democrats-44% of the electorate and Clinton carried 31%. Clinton got 13.6% of the independents in a race that had approx. 291,000 votes. So Clinton got 39,568 independent votes.

Continue to keep your readers misinformed across the pond.

[Dan]

If the Republicans are smart enough to put differences on specific issues aside and nominate John McCain, they have a good chance of being able to hold on to the White House. McCain's past record as a war hero and a straight-shooter would contrast favorably with Hillary Clinton and his experience in foreign affarirs would contrast favorably with Obama's dangerous naivete and inexperience.

But if the ideologues prevail and the GOP puts up somebody like Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson or Mitt Romney, they're dead meat.

[RAM]

I wonder which I would fear more if I was a woman living in Iran?

Wearing a burka or seeing the potential future President of the USA pick up a microphone, and on national television sing, "Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Iran!" to the tune of the Beach Boys, Barbara Ann...

Hmmmmm......

[LILLIAN ALBUQUERQUE NEW MEXICO]

John Kerry? who is he?

economics and illegal immigration . .romney is the man .

[Lincon's Log Cabin]

I take offence to your dipicting the GOP as a 'Cinderella', as if the party were out of some 'fairytale' or other. The party is for real, its mature and grown up ( just like the good Senator from Illinois) Please don't undermine us!
Whats even a greater insult in associating the GOP with Cinderella is that she had to wait for royalty to help her achieve a greater social status. Instead she should of buckled down to some hard work with the benefits of tax breaks. When her Prince came, she should of sent him packing like our Founding Fathers did with King George! Now thats a real Republican story, not a liberal fairytale.
Here's some advice; It's safer Tom for you and your editors not to make reference to fairytales when talking about American politics. It can get ugly pretty fast! just ask Bill and Hill!

[Dr. Serendipitous]

Problem with any of the Republican presidential candidates this year is, regardless of what they are promising, which is mostly rehash of the promises they have been making for the last quarter of a century, they cannot escape the fact that Republicans had the total control of the presidency and Congress for nearly seven years, a once-in-a-quarter-century opportunity to get those promises accomplished, and they squandered it.

Now, with Democrats in control of Congress, the chance of anything Republicans are promising becoming reality is next to none, save one—stopping a Democrat from becoming president.

Whether that is good enough in this time of declining American economy remains to be seen but highly questionable.

[andi]

general consensus vis a vis comments is sthat there is little trust for hillary..what she could do to make me at least half way interested is tell me about the health care issues that she was so concerned about when she was first lady......where's that gone? this woman needs to do what no one else is doing/...... say what she is going to do,really....

[Austin from America]

To JFishler, I must say you are extremely small-minded and bigoted to believe that Conservative America won't elect a "half-black" or woman.
Clearly, you are the kind of person that holds no qualms about perpetuating outdated stereotypes. America is more than ready.