How much harm is Bill Clinton doing the Democrats?

One of Bill Clinton's more memorable political observations was: "your opponent can't talk when you have your fist in his mouth." 

It's clearly the approach Bill has decided to take with Obama.  I've no doubt it will be effective in delivering his wife the Democratic nomination now. But how much damage does it risk doing to her in the general election?

African-Americans are unhappy with the Clintons. This must have been a very entertaining moment.  Obama got over 80 per cent of the black vote in Nevada.  It's possible, if the current tone of the Democratic contest doesn't improve, that blacks will sit out the general in protest at Hillary.  Possible, I suspect, but not likely. In the end the big show of reconciliation the Clintons will make once they have the nomination (a kind of reverse Sister Soldjah Moment?) will make sure of that.

Much more likely, I think is that the Democratic campaign absolutely reinforces Hillary's negatives in three ways:

1 Her main problem is that people don't like her. Seizing the Democratic nomination over the corpses of her opponent and his supporters is not going to do much to change that.

2 The spectacle of Bill weighing in so aggressively on his wife's behalf has reinforced the sense of what is at stake here. This is a joint candidacy. The Clintons are going for an extra-constitutional restoration of the first joint-Clinton presidency.  It's not at all clear that voters - outside real Clinton enthusiasts - are going to like that.

3 Most important, the Clintons' methods and message are maximising partisanship. They are going to win the nomination by crushing by the crudest means the candidate who has staked his claim on an appeal to voters beyond the traditional Democratic base. The silly distortions - about Obama's words on Reagan, for example - may be useful in pandering to partisan Dems but will only remind normal people how depressingly narrow and stale American politics have become these last ten years or so.

The Clintons really risk losing moderates in the general election with this approach - especially if John McCain is the Republican nominee and/or Mike Bloomberg decides to make a run for it.

Comments

[pablo]

I totaly agree with the comment , i really think Bill is causing a lot of harm to the Dems. I think his approach is silly and not productive. what on earth he thinks is doing ? He is behaving like his wife deserves to be president . Does She ? i dont think so , she is claiming she is experienced ? Please tell me which experience she has compare to Obama who really show his leadership over and over again . Just look at the approach his taking in this campaign , his previous record in chicago . I think Bill wants to repay his mistakes and the shame his wife endured because of his extramarital affairs. To win a general election you need to gain votes outside your electorate core base , Hilary cant win other votes apart from dems . Hilary will never win a national election in the US. Bill is damaging the dems, the best ticket i think will be Obama/ Edwards . but it looks less likely and believe it or not , a republican will win the election again in the US , the result of a silly and incompetent Bill . GWBush was right when he said a republican will win again and i can only said watch out because its going to happpen.

[warped]

Wrong, wrong, wrong, no matter who the dems put up, they win. The msm have poisoned any chance the gop has of maintaining any control over anything substantive. The media worldwide sholds a great deal of sway in public and world opinion. Hopefully the world will enjoy the fruits of the medias labor.
Hill and Bill are back! Enjoy!!

[Mendel Peterson]

Hillary was co-governor and co-president.

Hillary is now a co-candidate for president.

Hillary is pulling Bill Clinton's wagon.

[Dwayne Johnson]

Hey listen, you can be gentlemanly and keep alive your weaker opponent's run, or you can cut off his head. Every time Bill's opened his mouth, Hillary wins. I love Obama and some of me hopes he can beat Bill back, but I don't want him as President if he can't. In politics there are winners, and then there are the nice. If you can do roughly what needs to be done to win while appearing nice, that's gravy.

[TJFRMLA]

I for one will be thru with the Democrat Party if the senior members don't reign in Bill Clinton. He's disgusting and I'd rather go Independant. It's one thing to campaign for your wife...but another to loose what's left of the dignity of the office of President. Hasn't he done enough? Where was all this love for Hillary when he was lying to her in front of the entire WORLD about his affair with Monica Lewinsky?
The senior Democrats have shown themselves to be spineless and weak (as usual) in letting this immoral man tear the party apart.
I will be active in letting everyone I know this is the time to leave the party... that stands for nothing.

[Cordelia]

I have a theory that Bloomberg will only run if Obama doesn't get the Democrats' nomination - and I hope he does enough damage to Hillary that she loses the election (because it's looking like she's got the nomination tied up). As Andrew Sullivan said, this really is a generational debate; no one I've talked to under about 45 likes Hillary; they're all for Obama, whatever their gender or race (in a liberal city though).

Disagree about the need to do things roughly in politics. Why does everything have to be dragged down to street-brawl level?

[Melanie L]

I just don't understand the rules that govern American political campaigning. It's o.k. to attempt to tarnish and diminish a candidate by constant references to how unlikeable they are. It's o.k. to make constant reference to issues, such as Whitewater, that have been investigated and commented upon, but still failed to 'nail' Hillary. It's o.k. to make constant reference to her husband's marital infidelities and criticise her for sticking with him (in a country where Christianity is such a key issue I would have expected this to be applauded rather than censured).

Somehow, it is not o.k. to make any reference to her opponents self-confessed use of hard drugs? Unbelievable! It's not o.k. to try and get it into the open that this candidate shies away from voting on the tough issues? Better that any links to dodgy money in Chicago are brought into the open pre-election, than after he's nominated.

Americans are about to decide on the right candidate for the toughest job in the world, and everyone is worried that the campaign is a bit rough?

[abeba]

If we are talking of change the real change driver is going to be Hilary! All women should stand for hilary. This is not about black and white. This is about Gender. She is the most competent person than any man!! But I can say that Americans are not ready for women and black leaders! I can bet on that!!