It All Starts (But Assuredly Won't End) Today

I spent Iowa Caucus Eve on a slightly mad, 13 hour, 550 mile dash around the southern part of the state and managed to see five campaigns in action (four candidates and a spouse) as well as talk to a number of staffers.  So I am now completely informed and fully equipped to tell you exactly what is going to happen today.  Listen carefully and I'll begin.

Democrats

Obama has the highest hopes of breaking the three-way tie decisively in his favour. That is evident from the thrust of his closing remarks on the campaign trail, where he virtually begged caucus-goers to give him a decisive win. But to do so he is relying on an old caucus tactic that has been much tried but never worked - expanding the universe of voters beyond the base of core Democratic voters to include independents and young  first-timers. The highly contentious Des Moines Register poll earlier this week that gave him a 6 point lead assumes he will be able to do this - with as many as 40 per cent of caucus-goers being self-described independents (who heavily favour Obama)  This seems just implausibly high.

What's more, we shouldn't assume either that he will do quite as well on second preferences as he is expecting. A senior Clinton adviser persuaded me (I think) that it is wrong to imagine that, when a candidate is deemed "unviable" (with less than 15 per cent of the vote in any precinct) his votes will automaticaly be redistributed according to stated second choice preferences (where Obama does well).

As this adviser (very familiar with the ways of caucuses) says, that is not necessarily how the voting will go.  A candidate who does not get 15 per cent of the vote in the first tally at a precinct will not  be immediately eliminated.  For example, if, say, Biden, gets 12 per cent in a precinct, his little group will not just surrender and wander over to their second choices. They might try to peel off supporters from a larger group (say Obama voters) to try to become viable, perhaps with a threat that if they don't get enough they will transfer en masse to Edwards. So, as this adviser put it, a candidate who was unviable can become viable.  i think in a tight race this significantly limits Obama's  upside potential from second preference votes.

That said, Hillary looks awfully vulnerable still. This is very much a change election and she is the least well-equipped of the three to make the case that she represents change.  And her people  seem to be the most ominously eager to play down Iowa's significance and they talk about how a third-place finish won't necessarily damage her.

All of which suggests to me that Edwards may be best placed today.  He combines the message of change with a really solid appeal to the party's base. His closing rally in Des Moines last night (with John Mellencamp and a few thousand supporters) underscored just  how much his (hideously) populist message plays with a somewhat angry and assertive Democratic base.

Then again, I could be wrong.

Republicans

The hottest ticket, in every sense of the word, last night, was John McCain''s brief return to Iowa . He hosted a couple of hundred supporters at his small headquarters, which at least ensured some welcome warm respite from the bitter cold. Measured by two key gauges - people per square foot and media megastars in interested attendance (I counted at least three major TV news show presenters) - McCain clearly has the momentum. Of course he can;t win here, but if he can finish a strong third (beating Fred Thompson for that slot) in a state he has virtually ignored, he not only provides a solid boost for his New Hampshire stand next week, he might just eat into Mitt Romney's vote enought to deprive him of a win here - which would be a terrible blow to Romney.

Romney, whom I also saw yesterday, looked tired and rather flat, underperforming in front of a lacklustre little gathering in Cedar Rapids. But he surely maintains the strongest ground game - getting out the vote on caucus day. And in a Republican race that continue to be marked by a distinct lack of enthusiasm compared with the Democrats and where turnout will presumably be dramaticaly lower, his ability to get the troops out will be key.

I didn't see Huckabee yesterday, but I got a hopeful sense from others that he might just be weakening at the wrong moment.  He's guaranteed a place in the top two but expectations are now so high that really only a win will do to keep his campaign alive.

We shall soon see.

Comments

[Fred Flinton]

Good.