It's Huckabama!
Final thoughts as we sift through the confetti and the wreckage of the first contest of the 2008 election.
For the Democrats, Obama's victory (by about 38 per cent to Edwards' 30 and Hillary's 29) is well enough outside the three-way tie scenario to be truly significant. Change was the message, according to the entrance poll, from an astounding turnout of Democratic voters and they think - quite reasonably - that Obama, fresh and new, and not Hillary or Edwards, is the one to deliver it.
This was a body blow for Hillary. The spin was that she was always going to have a tough time here and that was true. For a while back in the spring her campaign even pondered pulling out of Iowa. Her husband, remember, didn't really run here in 1992 and there was no Democratic contest in 1996.
But she did run and she ran on a fairly simple premise that she was inevitable. If you run as inevitable and lose you really lose.
And yet. It's only one contest. It's only Iowa. She will now unleash some furies in the next four days in New Hampshire, where voters do not necessarily follow the Iowa line. If she wins there she evens the contest and it's all to play for in Nevada (where she should win) and South Carolina and beyond.
But she is in the fight of her life now.
A brief word on Edwards. He needed to win here and he was a distant second. He won't quit immediately but he faces almost impossible odds. The next big question for him is when to pull out and to whom he should throw his valuable support.
On the Republican side Huckabee was a big winner but Romney was a bigger loser. Like Hillary, Romney was a frontrunner with all the advantages and resources that entails. But he got soldily beaten by an upstart. His nightmare scenario was a poor second here and to have McCain - his main rival in New Hampshire - run a strong third. In the event McCain seems to have tied for third, but the result is still very ominous for Romney.
Huckabee now has to prove that he is not just a likeable guy with a floating subliminal cross over his shoulder. Evangelicals pulled him to victory here but they won't do it in New Hampshire. Still, he only needs a respectable showing there now and have McCain beat Romney, which would probably finish Romney - and turn it into a two man fight through the primaries with McCain.
Which leaves McCain. The man written off for dead two months ago is on the march.
I am surprised by my reaction to Obama's win in Iowa. As an African-American it has brought me to tears that there can be no disputing this Black man is a credible candidate for president of the United States. My mother grew up in the south during a time in which Black people coud literally be killed forattempting to vote and now we have Obama. It breaks my heart that she is not here to see this day.
Do I believe he will beat Hilary for the nomination? Absolutely not. But for tonight I am proud beyond belief of my country.
Posted by: Sandra | 4 Jan 2008 04:22:32
A summarizing comment on Sen. Obama's victory: The Independent and Democrat voters in the Iowa primary repudiated the Bush Administration, and the politics of fear used by President Bush (and, to her disadvantage, by Sen. Clinton), in favor of engagement and hope.
Posted by: Bill Traynor | 4 Jan 2008 04:29:28
Come on Obama in NH!!!
Posted by: Stan | 4 Jan 2008 04:43:23
It's a bit sad that the writer so glibly dismisses John Edwards, who held his own with Hillary, without looking at the details of the race. Ms. Clinton didn't do that well with women, and fared very poorly with men. Mr. Edwards, who has polled best against Republicans in a head to head poll, is hardly finished nor should he want to be--he has the most coherent vision and message of any of the Democratic frontrunners. At the same time Obama did well because he had bussed in a large number of volunteers and did a great job getting new people to the caucusses. They are not, however, reflective of the electorate as a whole, among whom many (1) find Ms Clinton sufficiently anathema that they will drive across state in a snowstorm to vote against her and (2) feel left out by the right wing corporate give aways and bogus religiosity of the current Rove driven Republican party, and have shown a tendency to favour Edwards. Sadly, the Republicans are without a reasonable, thoughtful, principled candidate with any vision and gumption. So it's up to the Democrats.
Posted by: USAgina | 4 Jan 2008 05:57:48
WHAT WONDERFUL NEWS FROM IOWA!
AND WHAT WONDERFUL NEWS NEXT TUESDAY - WHERE OMABAMA HAS ALREADY PROVED HIMSELF! AND WHAT WONDERFUL NEWS THERE WILL BE ON NOVEMBER 4TH! O B A M A! O B A M A! O B A M A!
FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT IN THE WHITEHOUSE! AMERICA: REJOICE!
WORLD: REJOICE!
Posted by: San Yin | 4 Jan 2008 06:12:38
approve
Posted by: San Yin | 4 Jan 2008 06:13:44
I've read that Hillary and Obama both have 100 millions, so it should not be about money, which one will be chosen.
Posted by: Pasi | 4 Jan 2008 08:19:50
Romney -great hair and teeth, shifty eyes
Clinton - We'd love a female president but does it have to be one who let her husband walk all over her for 20 years?
Huckabee - good bass player
Obama - time has come today!
Posted by: ALF | 4 Jan 2008 08:35:13
Yeah, all the candidates making vague references to "change", just like Rocky's speech at the end of IV: "If you can change, n' I can change, we all can change!" Spare me. Who's the only guy with a real agenda for change and the cojones to make it happen? Like ya don't know. RP! RP!RP!
Posted by: Ernie | 4 Jan 2008 09:27:02
Why is Guiliani not even mentioned here? Huckabee may send Romney straight back to Utah and put up a decent fight against the perennial loser McCain but how about Rudy G? He wont enter the race in earnest until Florida and it will be interesting to see how he fares against Huckabee down there....
Posted by: Thomas Winther | 4 Jan 2008 11:51:52
What's happened to Giuliani? Was he not the Republican favourite about three weeks ago?
Posted by: Nick | 4 Jan 2008 12:08:58
Democrats might have voted for 'change' - but registered Democrats won't put Obama in the Oval Office. The primary in New Hampshire is based on registered Democrats and Independents - so the result could be very different. And Obama gets only 17 delegates from the Iowa caucas to the National Convention compared to Edwards 16 and Clinton's 15.
Its still wide open.
Posted by: Hugh | 4 Jan 2008 12:13:59
I agree with many of the comments Mr. Baker made here but not quite all.
Point one - Edwards is finished. Good news for the US, as Edwards was the closest othing to an empty suit on the Democratic side. Both Obama and Hilary would make better Presidents IMHO.
Baker also leaves out Guliani, who is very much in the race, and fails to mention the similarity between Huckabee and a previous evangelical winner of the Iowa caucuses - nutso Pat Robertson (another Reverend). Robertson beat George Herbert Walker Bush in the 1988 Iowa caucus but very little was heard from him after that. Huckabee could follow a similar pattern, though it should be noted that Huckabee is much more of a professional politician than Robertson was.
Posted by: Don | 4 Jan 2008 13:08:22
I agree with many of the comments Mr. Baker made here but not quite all.
Point one - Edwards is finished. Good news for the US, as Edwards was the closest othing to an empty suit on the Democratic side. Both Obama and Hilary would make better Presidents IMHO.
Baker also leaves out Guliani, who is very much in the race, and fails to mention the similarity between Huckabee and a previous evangelical winner of the Iowa caucuses - nutso Pat Robertson (another Reverend). Robertson beat George Herbert Walker Bush in the 1988 Iowa caucus but very little was heard from him after that. Huckabee could follow a similar pattern, though it should be noted that Huckabee is much more of a professional politician than Robertson was.
Posted by: Don | 4 Jan 2008 13:09:25
I watched the acceptance speeches and yes, Obama talked about change. The commentator said he had voice problems but he sounded tired and his dozens of "thankyous" at the outset seemed strangely hectoring.
Hilary's speech was the speech of someone who knows she has lost. She knows it and so do her supporters.
As for Huckabee. You seem to be a little dismissive, citing "floating" crosses and saying that his support is purely from the "Evangelicals" I thought he was a man who beamed energy and also a lot of sense. Quoting the Declaration of Independence my seem a bit glib to hardened journalists like yourself, but it founded America and its probably going to have a much wider appeal than just the Evangelicals and certainly has more substance than his rivals on the night.
Posted by: Jack Bloxam | 4 Jan 2008 14:42:27
2 man fight between McCain and Huckabee? why no mention of Guiliani who will probably win Florida and most of the large states of Super Tuesday.
Posted by: steven Bainbridge | 4 Jan 2008 15:30:38
McCain and Huckabee have been awfully nice about each other - is the one who wins looking to pick the other as his Vice President? After all, either may be able to win the nomination, but neither can win the country without the other's supporters.
Posted by: Edmund Cargill Thompson | 4 Jan 2008 15:42:42
I don't know what will happen in November but I am truly proud of what happened today. A black man with a muslim father and a name that is the least american sounding I've come across wins the Iowa primary....! I think that's progress in a country obsessed with race, a country where less than 100 years ago black men were being strung up. I'm totally into Obama's message of change and empowerment because you've got to be prepared to go out and fight for what you want regardless of what people say. If that's blind optimism or naive inexperience then God, plse more of the same. I never thought it would be possible to be inspired by a politician but that man brings something different to the venal and corrupt world of politics!
Posted by: Funke | 4 Jan 2008 16:03:19
Warmest greetings to the Next President of the USA, and she should regard the Iowa returns as " Its One Wintry Aspect - best forgotten "
Posted by: B C Seals | 4 Jan 2008 21:07:51