Michigan Votes - LiveBlog

9.40pm Update on the Democratic (non) race. I didn't get a strong sense of how many "uncommitted" votes the anti-Hillary factions were hoping to get in Michigan so it's hard to gauge the results against expectations (which is all that really matters). The results seem to indicate that about a third of the vote was uncommitted, against 60 per cent for Hillary. Given the small turnout, that might prove to be as meaningless for both sides as it looks. One point of interest , though. It does look as though black voters may have been heavy supporters of "uncommitted" which would confirm that the recent race flap has done Hillary some damage with African-Americans.

9.01pm Romney wins.The nets confirm it.  So now we have The Comeback Kid. Part III.  There was less suspense to it this time but Romney becomes the third candidate in a week (Hillary and McCain being the other two) to revive his campaign with a crucial win.

Now this was a home state for Romney (his father was governor) and so he probably won a significant personal vote, but the exit poll details appear to tell the more important story for the rest of the Republican race. Relatively few independents - McCain's "base" - came out this time.  In 2000, when Michigan gave McCain's flagging campaign against George Bush a last gasp of hope, more than 50 per cent of the voters were independents. This time the number was about 20 per cent. Romney won easily among the significant majority of registered Republicans; McCain won easily among the small minority of independents.

For all the talk of the last week of McCain being the favourite for the Republican nomination, these simple facts underscore how tough his task remains. He has to hope somehow that in a multi-sided race he can assemble a coalition of independents (in states where they can vote) and a minority of Republican voters to give him enough delegates to win the nomination. Romney and Huckabee are going to get the bulk of the Republican votes in subsequent races. 

Two other brief comments. Whatever happened to "Big Mo"? Three different candidates have won the first three primaries. That suggests voters are much less susceptible than some thought to the idea that they should validate what other states have already decided. The truth is no-one has momentum on the Republican side.

Second; once again this is a near-perfect result for Rudy Giuliani.  His only real hope has for some time been that - implausible as it may seem - a number of different winners would emerge from the early races so that there would be no firm frontrunner to take him on in his first real contest - January 29 in Florida. And what do you know? That is exactly what happened. There may be many other impediments to Giuliani's prospects, as we shall see in the next two weeks, but the problem that he just might not be able to beat some heavy favourite is certainly not one of them.   

8.35pm You don't need to be a mind-reader to get the clear hints from the TV networks that Romney has won the Michigan primary.   Mindful of their responsibilities to the few hundred potential Republican voters in the handful of Michigan counties that are in the Central time zone (and therefore whose polls don't close till 9pm Eeastern) the networks haven't yet called it for Romney but the tone of all the broadcasts, combined with the loud noises from the Romney Victory party and the absence of McCain (he's gone to South Carolina already) mean we won't have to wait long for Romney's first serious win to become official.

7pm Eastern Time

Eyes down and here we go again for Round Three of the Most Wide Open US Presidential Election In History (MWOUPEIH) . Chastened by our little local difficulty last week in New Hampshire, we pundits are holding fire this time on solemn declarations, panegyrics and obituaries before the first returns come in.

In the Michigan results tonight - which will start arriving at 8pm eastern time, the main focus will be on the Republicans. If Mitt Romney wins here, it will certainly revive his flagging campagn after bad defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire and it will make the MWOUPEIH even more open than before, with the first three real contests having been won by three different candidates - Huckabee, McCain , Romney. If Romney loses his campaign is on life-support.

And so sure enough, the early exits are suggesting Romney has a healthy lead.  But how about we (ahem, I) actually wait this time till we have some hard numbers?

On the Democratic side Hillary is the only real candidate on the ballot, but watch for the number of votes cast for "uncommitted " delegates. Representatives for the Obama and Edwards campaigns were hoping for a sizeable number of such votes from anti-Hillary Dems to demonstrate the continuing vulnerability of the Clinton campaign. 

Comments

[Tim]

Romney will only win in Michigan because of his father's name and his pledge to do something for the auto industry. He probably won't do anything else the rest of the way.

McCain was dead and dead broke a while ago, what happened and where did he get the money.
I think I could give a good guess and I'm ignoring the race from here in Toronto.
Try looking at his foreign policy position and match it with possible money sources.

[Tariq]

I don't care if Hillary, John and Mitt come back, as long as they just GO AWAY.