Nevada Democrats

Hillary wins, thanks in large part to a big share of the Latino vote. Check the entrance poll. She won 64 per cent of Hispanics. But even more strikingly, Obama won 83 per cent of the black vote. Race is now clearly going to be a central feature of the Democratic race.  This might seem obvious given the alternatives on offer but it was only a few months ago that pundits wondered openly whether Obama, as a mixed-race, second-generation African immigrant,  was "black enough" for most African-American voters. Now we know. He's plenty black enough. The unpleasantness of the last couple of weeks has made sure of that.

Otherwise the Democratic race largely repeated the pattern of Iowa and New Hampshire.  If Obama can get sufficiently large numbers of independents to the polls he wins. In Iowa he had a 20 point advantage among independents; in New Hampshire a ten point margin, and in Nevada a 14 point margin. But in Nevada there just were not enough of them for him to get close - only 15 per cent of the total vote.

Hillary won big again among the traditional Democratic core - low-income voters; older voters and women - who voted in huge numbers in Nevada - almost 60 per cent of the total.  This time, however, she did better than elsewhere among upper-income voters.

The future course of the Democratic race is clear, I think. For Obama, his only real hope is to rack up a massive African-American vote to limit Clinton's daunting advantage among registered Democrats. Then - where he can; in those states that allow independents to vote -  he must get a huge independent turnout.

Since this is a Democratic primary contest, it still looks like Hillary's to lose.

Comments

[Inquirer]

Mr. Baker has had it all wrong from the beginning. Despite has various narratives, it's always been Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney. So beware of his latest narrative -- that it's all about race, especially for the Democrats. It's not. I'd suggest Mr. Baker get on this narrative: It's all about Hillary . . . and Bill." He' be closer to the truth.

[Brett]

It's almost kind of a pity, the whole primary system. It basically only ensures that someone who is either a diehard partisan or someone who is good at pretending to be a diehard partisan gets through the ringamarole of partisan Caucus and Primary voters.

In any case, that's enough whining. Although I wanted this to go to Obama, it looks like Hillary will probably win unless Obama pulls off a Super Tuesday miracle. I suppose at the least, he could win enough delegates to force the race into a brokered convention, then try to get something out of it.