New Hampshire - Liveblogging the results

10.33 Hillary Wins (at least according to the AP) and New Hampshire has once again - as it did in 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992 and 2000, refused to toe the Iowa line and has opted to scramble the race for the presidency. I say it again, whether you like the result or not, you can't help but admire the New Hampshire voters' calm refusal to go along with the confident consensus of the punditry.

10.15  Everybody - pundits, strategists, journalists and campaigns - got this race completely wrong.  I can't speak for pollsters and consultants but I can say a bit about the problem with journalists. We (me included) acted like a herd of stampeding ignoramuses, buying into the prevailing (lack of) wisdom. We should all exercise a good deal of humility about that.  But of course we won't. We shall boldly segue neatly from one set of post-hoc certainties to another.

I shall especially enjoy reading the revisionism that we will get in the next few days.  I'll look forward to reading how the "Change with Experience" message was not the clumsy, out-of-touch mess we have been told it was these last few days, but a work of pure political genius. I'll take pleasure in hearing how Hillary's reaction to her Iowa defeat was not the obvious tone-deaf mistake everybody said it was but a shrewd piece of political calculation.  And I take it that shakeup at Clinton Campaign HQ is now off?   

How marvellous that the voters in their wisdom can make such fools of us all.

9.36 If, as the combination of exit polls and returns now suggest, Hillary actually wins New Hampshire, it will mark one of the most spectacular turnarounds in electoral history. As I noted earlier, her husband claimed the title of "Comeback Kid" when he lost by 8 percentage points here in 1992. If she has managed to come from a crushing defeat in Iowa and an opinion poll consensus on Monday that gave her a 9 point deficit in New Hampshire, to victory here, it will eclipse that "triumph" and upend the Democratic race for the second time in five days.

8.11 McCain Wins  The networks call it for him.  Even if it's close (and the fact that they've called it so soon suggests it isn't) it is a remarkable personal recovery and a great vindication for the Arizona Senator. Left for dead six months ago, he staked everything on New Hampshire. His risky strategy and perseverance were rewarded - as was his unstinting belief in the Iraq War.  He supported it from the start, and more importantlly in the very dark days of 2006. He was a primary proponent of the surge that is so evidently a success. He is now right back in the mix. But for Republicans, the ascent of this maverick, who is despised by many conservatives, spells more trouble, I suspect.

8.03 Fox News, being quite transparent, is the only network to broadcast headline numbers from its exit poll: Obama 39, Clinton 34.  Two weeks ago that would have been viewed as a disaster for Hillary. But after the events of the last week, it represents if not Victory, then at least Hope for her.

If McCain has beaten Romney, as Fox says, 35-30, that's a very good result for the self-described Old Geezer and a shattering blow for Romney.

7.50 OK. Last post before all New Hampshire polls close in 10 minutes. One question that hasn't received much attention is what will John Edwards do?  Even if he finishes a distant third tonight he will obviously go on. But a tight result between Obama and Clinton is the worst possible outcome for him. It will only underline his irrelevance and also limit his ability to go after one of the two others (Clinton, it is assumed).

7.48 I'm getting carried away. They're not exits. They're actual results with 7 per cent in.

7.46pm And now Drudge has Hillary ahead!

7.43pm Drudge has headline exit numbers (presumably) that if correct are a big surprise on both sides. Obama squeaks by Clinton while McCain romps past Romney.  It could be a long night. Especially for the Obamanians

7.25pm  In 1992 Bill Clinton lost New Hampshire by 8 points and declared himself the Comeback Kid.  Depending on the Obama margin of victory, here's how the Clintons could reasonably spin tonight's results:

Between 0 and 5 per cent:- she's the Comeback Queen;

5-10 per cent- she's battered but still afloat

10-plus percent.  No spin will disguise this kind of blowout

7.14   I should clarify those last two entries. Turnout in the Dem race is assumed to be much higher than in the Rep race so if 40 per cent of voters in both primaries are independents, it means of course that many more indies voted in the Dem primary than the Rep. But it doesn't change the main point for Obama - that the proportion of Dem primary voters who are independents is a bit less than seemed possible in the last few days.

6.59    A bit more on those fuzzy exits.  ABC says that independent turnout in the Dem primary was about 40 per cent of total - that's 8 points down on 2004 and 10 down on the record in 1992.

In 2004, of course, there was no Republican contest so indies had nowhere to go but the Dems. But if Obama has pulled in far fewer indies (as a proportion of the total) than the candidates did in 92 it will support the tantalising conjecture that his presumed win tonight will be at the lower end of expectations.

620pm Eastern Time

Fired up and ready to go. No, not Barack Obama's campaign chant but me, liveblogging the results tonight from Manchester, New Hampshire.

Polls close at 8 Eastern but the buzz here is from the leaked and fuzzy early exit polls.  The rumours (and they're not much more than that) are that Obama has done slightly less well than the pre-election polls indicated.  No hard numbers, I'm afraid, but the story is that young voters have not shown up in anything like the numbers they did in Iowa and that, strangely, independents are splitting fairly evenly between the Democratic and Republican race.  The Republican contest is supposedly very tight between McCain and Romney.

Rumour only, I stress, but if accurate - if say Hillary has lost by 5 points or less - then some hasty obituary-rewriting will be in order.

Comments

[Ali Murray]

Does live blogging imply that all the issues are known & it just a matter of hanging anecdotes on them? Surely the opportunity cost of not digging out new issues via new facts is too high a price to pay?

Spurious possible turnout comparisons are the manifestation of having too much time allocated to the blog-face.

[CT Barbarian]

Apropos to Ali Murray's comment: Mr. Girard might start blogging about the various campaign reactions for those "across the pond". Remember it was Howard Dean's reaction (rather than his loss) which sank his chances.

For those staying up in Blighty, ABC news goes on at 9pm EST (which is 1am your time) - that will be one of the more authoritative pieces of coverage.

For those in the US tiring of Mr. Gibson - CSPAN actually has very interesting coverage.

[Mark]

Hi Gerry

Good take on the results and the media miscalculations. I think McCain deserves tremendous kudos for the surge and its apparent success in Iraq and in New Hampshire. I think Hillary won because she cried and received a tremendous sympathy vote. I'm guessing woman came out in hi numbers for her

[Edie Spencer]

"...I say it again, whether you like the result or not, you can't help but admire the New Hampshire voters' calm refusal to go along with the confident consensus of the punditry. "

What is interesting is that the punditry, including you, Mr. Baker, not very long ago was predicting Mrs. Clinton as being the 'logical'choice in Iowa. When her ratings slipped, the punditry, including you, Mr. Baker then made much of Iowa being a small, insignificant state. I will not be surprised by the pundits, including you, Mr. Baker, crowing about how utterly right you are.

This is the Presidency of the USA- not a coronation, not an investiture of a Prime Minister. I am happy and pleased for Hillary victory- not the least that she has had some of her arrogance smacked out of her by the Iowa second placing and realised that the Democratic nomination is not something owed to her by right- but something damn well worth fighting for.

Finally, this is a win for the American people. Clinton, Obama and Edwards must present platform and details for the coming four weeks. It's anyone's race- even Edwards- and there are 48 states to go.

Edie Spencer, Portland, Oregon.