South Carolina - Obama Landslide

9pm South Carolina was a blowout for Barack Obama, the first real landslide in a contested primary in either the Democratic or the Republican campaign so far. But does it represent a pivot, yet another change of direction in a Democratic race that has already made a couple of sharp and unexpected turns through Iowa and New Hampshire? Does it put Obama back into serious contention for Super Tuesday in nine days' time?

The Clintons had done a fair amount of pre-election spin to downgrade the result as a traditional example of a hefty black vote for a black candidate. And so it was, in part. Obama won 80 per cent of African-Americans, who represented slightly more than half the total vote.  Bill Clinton, showing not the slightest hint of a willingness to scale back his unprecedented and stomach-churning intervention in this primary campaign, was at it again today, dismissing South Carolina as essentially a blacks-only political ghetto, noting that Jesse Jackson won the state twice in his futile and narrowly racially circumscribed presidential bids.

But there are some warning signs for the Clinton Restoration campaign. An obvious one is that Obama seems to have benefitted from a late surge, which the polls suggest may have been driven in part by revulsion by voters at the Clinton tactics of the last two weeks. The exit polls suggested Obama won by a significant margin the votes of those who thought Bill Clinton's intervention had been important - not presumably what the Clintons intended.

And yet, if you look in detail at the exit poll it's hard not to conclude that Bill is basically right - this was a black vote for a black candidate. Obama won only 24 per cent of the white vote - much lower than his share in either Iowa or New Hampshire. He won only 23 per cent of non-black Democrats, to Hillary's 42 per cent.   And in S Carolina, unlike in his previous big win in Iowa, Obama won by bigger margins among registered Democrats than he did among independents.

All this merely reinforces the point that Obama's vote was overwhelmingly a vote for solidarity by blacks with a black man. South Carolina is about as black as a state gets for the Democrats.  On Super Tuesday they won't make up more than 20 per cent of the vote in the vast majority of states.  Of course Obama still reaches beyond that black base in a way that other African-Americans have never done, especially with well-educated, younger and better off voters - but from his current levels of white (let alone Latino) support it is hard to see how he can build a majority. 

And consider this, even after the heat and rancour of the last week, more than three quarters of the voters said they'd be satisfied if Hillary were the Democratic candidate, and half of them voted for Obama. -

The Democratic electoral maths remain exactly the same even after this impressive South Carolina result for Obama. Clinton is leading the coalition that has always delivered the nomination in the end.

It may not be edifying to watch the Clintons methodically nail down this contest. But I still suspect it's going to be brutally effective.

7.18pm One further quick, provisional point here. If the exit polls are right this is a much bigger "shock" than Hillary's win in New Hampshire.  There, Mrs Clinton outperformed her final opinion polls by about 6-8 percentage points.  Obama is running in SC about 10-12 points ahead of his final opinion poll numbers. Obviously, in Hillary's case in NH, the surprise turned a second place into a first place and in SC it is merely increasing the size of Obama's first place win. But the evidence of a late swing to Obama may be even more significant, given what's happened in the last week (can you hear me President Clinton?) than Hillary's supposed last minute, tear-stained surge in NH. All very interesting.

7.01pm A rare, suspenseless election night in this primary season.  Barack Obama romps home in South Carolina and the nets declare it as the  polls close. The victory is not a surprise but the scale of it looks pretty astonishing.  My rough calculation is that the exit polls (usual caveats) are giving Obama around 50 per cent of the total vote and Hillary Clinton and John Edwards are fighting it out for second, splitting the other half of the vote.

The only real question, I think, here, is whether this very big win for Obama portends anything for the pivotal Super Tuesday contests to come in nine days time, or whether South Carolina is simply so sui generis (more than half the voters were black) that drawing any conclusions is impossible.

I'll have more when I've dug through the exits.

Comments

[Robert Dare]

This was THE pivotal primary for the Democratic nomination.

At last, the race card was played. And it was Obama who played it in an effort to gain a victory at all cost.

And what a cost it is.

Obama now emerges as the official black candidate for the Democratic nomination for President. Mrs. Clinton emerges as the white candidate.

The careless, inexperienced Obama has done what Republicans have pined after for years: Obama has fractured the Democratic vote, pitting white against black.

And blacks have painted themselves in a corner in their enthusiasm for their black candidate. The next great coalition in the Democratic Party will be a white-Hispanic one with blacks left with nowhere to got.

Count on it.

[Stan(expat)]

"as a traditional example of a hefty black vote for a black candidate. "

Copout & spin. Remember Bill is the "first" black president and they assumed until the last minute they still had the black vote locked up.

This is a huge in-your-face snub to Hillary.

Remember, ABC - Anyone But Clinton for Pres. !

[John Lane]

While Obama only received 25% of the white vote in South Carolina, that's not so bad when you consider several points. 1) This is a Deep South state, where 40 years ago a white would not even socialize with a black, much less vote for one. Now 25% of whites voted for Obama for president. 2) Obama had to compete against not one, but two other WHITE candidates in this Deep South state (or three, if you count Bill). 3) John Edwards, as a "favorite son," a SC native and senator from that state, naturally garnered a decent share of the white vote. 4) If the candidates had split the votes equally, Obama would have received 33%. The actual result, 25%, isn't much less than that.

[J Joyce]

I judge the results very much flavored by race, The blacks gave him about 85 % of their vote , now that is like running the table in the world of political statistics.

[don myers]

you may be right but the Clintons need the black vote if they want to be President again.

[LAKSHMAN PARDHANANI]

Your conclusions sadly are right but as an astute political observer does it not depress you to see the failure of the white race to rise beyond their prejudices in order to create an opportunity for a better life for everyone in this world?
Obama will be a breadth of fresh air in what has become a polluted world during the Bush Presidency and will change very little if Hillary were to succeed.
At times like this I am reminded of Dean Martin singing, " the world will never change you had better know it... you are nobody till somebody..."

[Karen]

Gerard
I diagree with you completely. Look at the voter breakdowns, this was a win for Obama across all key demographics - except seniors over 65.

You are falling into old thinking which is jsut divisive - you know better than that.

No candidate has swept the key demographics before in any of the primary or caucuses so far. Please don't diminish this win.

[John Chuckman, Toronto, Canada]

No matter how little Obama would actually be able to achieve as president, how refreshing to read and hear his words.

There hasn't been a national politician in America to speak this way since Humphrey.

By contrast, Ms. Clinton sounds so droningly like all the uninspiring politicians of the last thirty years or so.

And her husband is proven now as simply a bastard, behaving exactly the way the Republican Right treated him, throwing dirt every chance he gets.

We all know he's just trying to making up for humiliating his wife countless times.

I am afraid though that Clinton money and dirt will overwhelm this fine man in the upcoming contests.

If they don't succeed, we will know America really is tired
of empty words and blind ambition.

[Ms Ford]

Dear Mr Baker,

In assessing the performance of Mr Obama in the SC vote, it would appear that you have overlooked one important point in the issue of race. Mr Obama is of 'mixed race'.

Whilst it has long been the case in the US that having a lineage that included or associated a person with black ancestry decreed that the person was to be classed as 'of the black race' (eg. Rhinelander v. Rhinelander 219 A.D. 189; 219 N.Y.S. 548; Supreme Court of New York, Appellate Division, Second Department (1927)), that perception and/or belief has traditionally been that of 'the white man'. For the black community in the US, there is the prima facie impression, that the converse applies; and hence reports that Mr Obama has been lambasted by some in the black community for not being 'black enough'.

The assessment therefore that the black community came out and voted for Mr Obama 'because he is black', ignores 'the leap' he has had to make in attracting those within the black community who do not in fact embrace him as 'one of their own'.

What may be in evidence, therefore, is Mr Obama's ability to unite groups/peoples/causes, BECAUSE or by reason of his being of 'mixed race' (having been brought up by a white mother and fathered by a black man).

For the first time, I believe, you have a candidate who, in his personage, in fact represents two major groups - the black and the white communities.

In addition to everything else, one point that begs consideration is whether he is able to appeal to voters on the grounds of this 'unique' unifying force that is his mixed heritage? The real test of that will come, of course, as the elections proceed to Super Tuesday.

[TAD Arizona]

Once Obama got his 2nd state under his belt, it all comes together.

1. Ted Kennedy warnned Bill Clinton to Chill out, John Kerry told Bill he was hurting the Democratic party. Robert Reich came out and said that Bill Clinton should be quiet and let the candidates of the party work it out.

2. Hillary messed up from day 1. Planting Shill's n the crowd in Iowa to ask questions that she had pre rehearsed the answers.
She was caught 3 Times.. Red Handed.

The real democrats are for OBAMA...
They want nothing to do with Hillary, her disenfranchisment of voters, her pitting Union worker against Union Worker.

Teddy Kennedy, John Kerry, Bill Bradley, Janet Napolitano, The list gets longer as I write.... It will be an OBAMA landslide.

[Andy]

No matter what one says about Bill Clinton he knows how to campaign. Incidentally the issue of race was raised not by the Clintons but by the press. After NewHampshire the press suggested that the polls were wrong because of the Bradley effect; telling the pollsters you would vote for a black candidate and then pull the white lever when behind closed doors.Check Hardball and Chris Matthews on this.
Also Oprah Winfrey the most popular woman in America,who normally supports women's causes, came out for a Black male. If Obama were white she would have sat on her hands.So race became an issue by choice of Obama not Hillary Clinton. I believe that if Kennedy endorses Obama it will have the effect of making Hillary the underdog and be seen as piling on after a big victory for Obama. Also the Boston Brahmins, Kerry and Kennedy are now supporting the Harvard grad.Look for a reaction from the rank and file democrats. Kennedy would rather be a big fish in a small pool(with a Rep Pres.)Than a small fish in a big pool(with Hillary a democratic president)Has he forgotten what happened when he meddled with Carter's nomination?

[Garth Rex]

South Carolina simply means that Bill Clinton's vicious attacks on Obama backfired and had a negative effect on Hillary's chances.

It was a mistake to involve "Pit Bull Bill": He disgusted the voters.

[prudence eely bond mcguire]

I dread to envisage the outcome a Obama victory!
America will finally 'reap the wild wind'.
Rhetoric and youth over age and experience, is certainly an own goal!