The Hinge of History

The dogs have barked for the last time in Iowa and the vast caravan has moved on to New Hampshire, leaving us in an exquisite vacuum of heady uncertainty in the contest to be the next president of the United States.

The more one reflects on it the more impressive and intoxicating Barack Obama's victory seems.   Here he is, a generation after civil rights legislation swept away the last vestiges of America's great racial sin, a black man of humble origins on the brink of becoming the favourite to be president. Think about that for a moment because it ought to induce no small sense of awe.

It's not to say you need necessarily approve of his policies. It's quite reasonable to object - as many conservatives do - that if you listen to what Obama says he's not really distinguishable in policy terms from any other left-leaning American politician.   He's pro-choice on abortion and pro-mushy multilateralism and seems to think government is the solution to most of what ails us.

But that is not and never was what his candidacy was about.  He is a symbol of a changing America.  Not just because, after 20 years of Bush-Clinton hegemony, he's a refershing new name, but because his own very person and provenance offer hope for change for Americans who have become, polls suggest, very disenchanted with the path their country has taken of late.  That is why independent voters flocked to his banner in unprecedented numbers in Iowa.

That - together with the rhetorical talent  (see his speech last night) is why people now - sober, serious, wizened old political pros - are invoking the name and spirit of Bobby Kennedy to describe the Obama Phenomenon.  It's unpleasant to say it, but those old enough to remember will recall the pain they felt at RFK's assassination -  pain borne of the crushing of what were, perhaps, quite unreasonable hopes.

The impossible expectations of Kennedy were never realised because of his death.  Obama will - it is devoutly to be hoped - actually have to meet those absurdly high expectations - surely by any measure a tough, if not impossible challenge.   

And of course in any case he's a long way from being guaranteed of the Democratic nomination.

The Clintons will resist with fury this challenge to their birthright and Bill's last chance at power.  Hillary will fight and - we are already starting to see - will fight very hard.    New Hampshire - unlike Iowa - is a state  where voters have unsentimental views about negative camapigning.  In 1988 Bob Dole swept to an iowa victory in the Republican primary race and then got brutally assaulted by George Bush Senior in New Hampshire - and was crushed.  In 2000 Al Gore finsihed off Bill Bradley with an unrelenting attack there.

Of course the danger for Hillary is obvious.  Her high negative ratings have always reflected one ovewhelming fact about her - a lot of people really don't like her. If she opens up on St Barack of Iowa it might prove unedifying even to the hard-bitten, no-nonsense voters of New Hampshire.

 

Comments

[sumant rawat]

Only in America can the son of a woman from Kansas and an absebt Kenyan father rise to this astonishing level.As an initial sceptic of the Obama phenomenon I have to take my hat off to Barak Obama and the voters in Iowa.America truly remains the beacon of hope for the world!

[Peter Darlington]

Well done Obama.
We hope you can change the nasty USA to a decent and respected America.

[timothy]

Hillary talked of her allegiance to the democratic party at her concession speech and if she is to be believed, she will not no negative on obama to destroy him before the nation. If she does go negative, she will be the biggest hypocrite around and will only show her disrespect for the party. perhaps her (and her husband's) slash and burn brand of politics has run its course, seeking to DESTROY any opponent, and america now realizes this and so: goodbye Hillary, we knew you well - and didn't want you. We want someone else who, although he has less "experience," is worthy of our respect.

[Rowland Manthorpe]

Hilary's caught in a bit of a Catch-22, I think. She has to go negative, but every time she does she makes herself look cold and unappealing.

Obama's team are handling this really well. They've started up http://hillaryattacks.barackobama.com/, a site monitoring Hilary's attacks and putting them together with other (contradictory) comments. This is a campaign that's really motoring.

http://reheated.wordpress.com/

[Don]

One moe reason for GOPers to vote for Obama: In my judgement the GOP needs a period in the political wilderness to purge itself and prepare for the future. This has already happened in Congress, and it would be no bad thing to lose the Presidency for 4 or 8 years. By 2012 or 2016 memories will have faded and new leadership arisen, although Guliani may not be too old to do a Reagan in those years if he keeps his health. I think the US public may be ready to throw the bums out of Congress by then (or soon after).

[Fred Keeling]

Mr Obama has somehow acquired the charisma that defined JFK.

I well remember how I felt when learning that Kennedy had been shot and yet the momentum of the impact he had already made inspired the 60's to be the most exciting decade of the last century.

Mrs. Clinton is yesterday's woman

[Carol McFarlane]

I think we would be naive to expect overnight change - but there is always the trickle down effect. It has been bad these past almost 8 years - in every sector. All the negatives have increased and we could not be worse off as a country and as a society.

There is the larger picture - what Americans can aspire to, and be 'raised' to - a higher level of endeavor and outlook, and the impact, worldwide.

Perhaps once again, in the words of Langston Hughes, America 'will be' again.

[JC]

I would only comment on one point. Obama is not a "black candidate". His mother is 100% white, his father 100% black. Does that make him black? If so, that also makes him white.

The point is that Obama is everyman's American and his message of change and hope has very strong appeal. Add this gentleman's intelligence, credentials and yes, also his experience and the States may just have found the right person to lead them out of the valley after 8 destructive years of Dubya.

[deborah lathen]

Your article does not really pick up the essence of what happened last night. Obama's victory signals a sea change in race relations in America. Iowa is 95% white with a 2% African American population and Iowans of all ages voted for a Black man named Barack Obama--unprecendented. Perhaps, the dreams of the dreamers who preceded him, Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King and so many others, weren't "unreasonable". I have lived in Washington too long to not be a cynic, but maybe, just maybe we are beginning to see the unfolding of a time when as MLK said, " my four children will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character." The Martin's and Bobby's laid the foundation so that America could look at Barack Obama through a lense other than race and Barack who is biologically neither Black or White, has been able to embrace his entire background and has picked up on the underlying current that Americans, are ready to let go of the shackles that have divided us in the past. I expect that he will reenergize those of us who's dreams were crushed when Bobby and MLK died and he will bring the younger generation into a process that they have ignored for far too long.

[Charlie A.]

It is great to see papers all over the world realize today what I have been telling people here in the United States for awhile. When Obama became more of a national figure in 2004, I knew that we may very well being seeing our first black president. I figured it may have to be in 2016 rather than 2008, but the sooner the better. I was lucky enough to shake hands with him back in June of 2007. He is truly an amazing person and candidate. I can't see a better beginning for this country in the forever changing world that we have seemed to be stuck in a rut for too long. So long from St. Paul, MN and stay tuned for what may be the biggest event for the US in generations.

[shirlin]

Do we really want the Clinton family dynasty back in the White House? Do we want Bush-Cheney-light? Hillary who has voted to send our children to combat in Iraq for her raw ambitions, who smears and lies, who's failed in health care and in her marriage? Dear, dear New Hampshire fellow citizens, please turn the page for all of your fellow Americans. We are all holding our breath and hoping you will give us Obama for 08.

[andy (white guy from north carolina)]

instead of the lying idiot from texas and his evil thug sick-kick we have an intelligent, visionary, eloquent, leader: barack obama. right on! finally someone with a brain who isn't a total sell-out (like bill clinton and perhaps hillary).

check out his bio at chicago law school: http://www.law.uchicago.edu/faculty/obama

but also just listen to him on youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5h95s0OuEg

[San Yin]

Obama's electricity has zapped not only the United States.
Obama has electrified the world. Nothing can now stop him on his way to 1600, Pennsylvania Avenue.
The world is behind President Obama.

[prudence eely bond mcguire]

Robert Kennedy, to those of us left, who remember, the living, breathing man, was a paradox.
A man, on one hand, who, preached a brave new world to many, but, then lived his own private life, in a muddled state of 'slight dishonour'.
The Kennedy White House was built on sand and finally collapsed.
Let us hope, that, when it finally comes to electing, the new President, a lot more thought and meditation, by the citizens of the US, will have gone into, their individual, final selection.

[Saffoula]

Barack has demonstrated a long-term commitment to his message that it is "us", "we", and "everyone" who can and need to work together to effect the real change he is talking about. Barack is actually the most experienced candidate, having worked at the grassroots level as a community organizer in the most economically challenged area of Chicago, taught constitutional law, and served in the legislative branch at the state and national level. Obama has as much, if not more, experience as Reagan, both Clintons, and W. He has put his money where his mouth is, which is a large part of his appeal. Obama has a vision and message that the majority of this country and the world is hungering for. He is running to fulfill that vision, not promote himself. I am confident that the American electorate will do the right thing and elect the candidate who demonstrates integrity and embodies the best of what this country stands for and hopes to be. I'm excited for November!

[Jeremiah from Hawaii]

I was born in the 60's so I don't remember Bobby Kennedy. What's kind of surreal to me is that when I mentioned the several comments I read comparing Senator Obama to Bobby Kennedy, my mother told me to please not hex the man! With the hope is also a underlying fear that times may not have changed enough.

[joy]

going back to the '60's' and "Camelot" does not obama fit. like the 90's, no body wants same ole, same ole. obama is who he is .... never can he create the democrats' dream of camelot redux!

[Adrian Layes]

This article is lazy and really grates!: 3 examples:
--- "Clinton-Bush hegemony" - they're on opposite sides - how can it be a hegemony?
---"unsentimental voters of Iowa" vs "might find unedifying negative campaigning": contradictory - they can't be unsentimental and find negative campaigning unedifying!
---"the hinge of history" - please! Sounds a bit too like "this is not a time for soundbites. But I feel the hand of history upon me" for comfort. Shouldn't The Times discourage this kind of nonsense?

[bacaangel]

Obama talks and speaks to the Heart, to the best in us. And, the heart can move the spirit almost immediately. Let us invoke the heart for service to build a new America.

When the People are ready, the Leader will Emerge, to lead and point the way and make the Change.

[bacaangel]

To Joy: You say Bush/Clinton are on opposite sides and yet it was Bill Clinton who stated recently, that if Hillary were elected, he and Bush Sr., would tour the world together. What is any more together than that?

[George Kaye]

Without doubt one of the most exciting periods of American history is about to unfold. 2008 will be as defining to world history as 1989 was when the Iron Curtain fell. Perhaps though we should pause and look at Mr Obama's policies hard. JFK was a phenomenon, but arguably a bad president (remember the bay of pigs incident?). Mr Obama undoubtedly has his charisma, but let's make sure we're not swept into an unfocused presidency in these times of powerful global disorder. America needs to provide clear direction again. I earnestly hope this remarkable man is the person to give it.

[John Chuckman, Toronto, Canada]

Obama has intelligence and what Americans like to call "class," a form of grace that is very rare in American national politics.

Most importantly, he has a sense of freshness and honesty.

These are not qualities you can be coached into demonstrating, as Clinton so clearly demonstrates, along with people like Giuliani, Romney, or Thompson.

Clinton and almost all the Republicans represent the most tiresome, droning voice of the establishment.

It couldn't be clearer also that Obama knows what the real problems in America are. He wouldn't be able to solve many of them as president, but then people like Clinton, Giuliani, Romney don't even know what the problems are.

Clinton may have once understood the problems but that was so long ago that today she is just one more bloated, cynical Roman Senator in Washington with nothing to offer.

[Realworld 1]

You have to be kidding! The man wouldn't even have won Illinois senate if the dems hadn't dug up dirt from the distant past on the original repub. candidate. P.S. not everyone loved the Kennedys

[Stephen Guy, Seattle WA]

clinton has experience in the old political order - 35 years of the wrong experience. obama has the life experience to create a new political order.. stand aside clinton. raise us up to a higHer political plain obama.

[Jordan Orosz]

After listening to Evita Clinton’s remarks, and as I watched the Democrats debate on TV Saturday January 5th many songs drifted into my reverie. Here are a few:
Unchanged Malady, Change Gang, Un-change my Heart, Changes around my Heart, Pretenders Back on the Change Gang, and The Thong is Gone but the Malady Lingers On.