March 4 live blogging

Hattie Garlick writes: 12:55am. Fox, MSNBC and CNN have all called Texas for Clinton, with about 75 per cent reporting, which means she's almost certainly met Bill's own bench march for staying in the race and that the Democrats have another 6 weeks of contests to battle through. The champagne should stay on ice though. She still might not win a majority of Texas' delegates. Caucus results, which determine the placement of 1/3rd of the state's delegates, are still being calculated. Clinton can now claim that winning the battleground states gives her the authority to stay in the race. Obama may still emerge with a clear delegate lead and popular vote, but at least the flow of super-delegates towards Obama should now be frozen for a time. And without their help, neither candidate can now make up the magic 2,025 total needed to win.

12:40am. Perhaps the only two men on earth for whom this evening's Clinton-Obama contest has been just the backdrop for a more pressing drama, Dennis Kunich and Ron Paul are now breathing more easily. As Slate notes, there was some doubt whether either the Democrat or Republican understudy in the wider presidential campaign would win even their own districts this evening. Both however appear to have survived, Paul won 70 per cent of the vote in Texas' 14th District and early results show Kucinich leaing two-to-one over Cimperman in his district of Cleveland.

11:45pm: Does Mike Huckabee know something the voters do not? Shortly before stepping onto the stage on which he politely conceded defeat this evening, he gave an interview to Politico in which he made the following, puzzling prophesy: "I may be in a position like the pitcher who goes to the bullpen. He is not on the mound, but should anything happen, he is ready to come in for relief." Watch your back, John McCain...

10:40pm In Texas, with 20 per cent of precincts reporting, Hillary's wins are already liberally scattered about the state, while Obama's votes are concentrated in urban, delegate rich areas. It's a pattern that reflects the blanket strategy that has sent the Bill and Hillary road show across every inch of the state in the past days. Hillary has held events in all corners of the state and in several attention-starved small and midsized cities in between, while Bill has filled the blanks across rural Texas. It's a scheme that might yet pay off: the candidates are squaring up with 49 per cent of the vote each, but Hillary is inching ahead, with a lead of 1000 votes.

9:35pm Guerrilla warfare now, both on the ground at Texan caucuses and between campaign lawyers in their publicising of it. An outraged Hillary Campaign called an "emergency" conference call to accuse Obama officials of staging a hijacking of several precinct conferences and "locking out" peaceable Hillary voters queuing outside to excersise their constitutional rights. But campaign lawyer Lyn Utrect was left fuming when Barak Obama's lawyer Bob Bauer crashed the party, calling in to the conference on a line intended for reporters and accusing her of "attacking the caucus process", leading to what was probably the most entertaining conference call in campaign history...

9pm: An Ohian judge has ruled to reopen 15 polling stations that had officially closed for voting, after Barak Obama filed an emergency lawsuit. Sleet, ice and floods as well as ballot shortages are blamed for keeping voters from polling stations in Cleveland - not the largest city in Ohio but one with a large concentration of African-Americans and critical to Obama's success. The same officials are at pains to emphasise that 15 polling stations amounts to only 1 per cent of the state's stations, but the delay evokes unhappy memories of Ohio in 2004, when long lines of voters snaked through streets because of a string of problems with the old punch card voting machines.

7:30pm: At the McCain rally in Texas the confetti is stacked in boxes, and balloons litter the floor in readiness for a celebration that remains in hibernation while he inches towards the 1,191 delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination. CNN, which called Vermont for McCain 15 minutes ago, has just called Ohio for him too. But while his candidacy appears inevitable, it seems voting is still competitive amongst Republicans. Conservative Rush Limbaugh has used his internet radio show to urge Republican voters in Ohio and Texas to "pimp themselves for a day and go vote in the Democrat primary... I just think, at this stage, the longer Hillary can stay in this, the better for us." The Democrats, he says, are at war with themselves and "we want all the disruption in that party as possible. It's all about us winning."

7:00pm: CNN is predicting a win for Obama in Vermont. While the giants in this race, Ohio and Texas, have hogged the spotlight it is worth remembering the influence that the smaller states could hold. If the candidates split Texas and Ohio, a New England sweep would give the winner bragging rights in three of four contests

6:35pm: It looks like Hillary has managed to hold on to the core support base of blue-collar workers seen as key to her chance of winning Ohio. 56 per cent of Democratic voters without a college degree here claim to support Clinton, while the same percentage of those with college degrees claim to have cast their vote for Obama - cementing his reputation for appealing to 'latte liberals'. No surprises either with the African-American vote: 83 per cent in favour of Obama in Texas. Clinton also appears to have the predicted convincing lead amongst Latinos, at 65 per cent to Obama's 35 per cent. This does indicate, however, that Obama has done better amongst Latinos than Hillary has with African-Americans.

As an aside, it also seems that Clinton's controversial 'red telephone' advert in Texas (posted below) has met with an ambivalent response. 55 per cent of Texan Democrats see Clinton as a more natural Commander in Chief, but on the other hand, 82 per cent believe she has been quicker to attack her opponent unfairly.

6:20pm The exit polls are now also showing that roughly six in ten Democratic voters believe that super delegates should vote in accordance with the primary and caucus results. Among Hillary Clinton supporters, the figure is about half. As there now seems virtually no way for Clinton to emerge from the primary-caucus season with more pledged delegates than Obama, (whatever the results this evening), the choices that super delegates make will be all important. Some strategists suggest that tonight's results will be imstrumental in deciding their loyalties: a split decision in Ohio and Texas could stem the flow towards Obama. There is a way, however, that Clinton could argue that counting pledged delegates is a less than accurate measure of popular support, as Jay Cost has outlined today.

6pm Eastern Time An hour and a half before polling begins to wind up, the first exit polls are being released. In Ohio, where both candidates have made free trade and the North American Free Trade Agreement in particular a key issue in their campaign, 81 per cent of voters believe that international trade loses US jobs. In Texas, 58 per cent of voters agree. It also looks like Ohian under 30's have voted almost 2 to 1 in Obama's favour, while in Texas the ratio is almost exactly in the opposite direction.

Comments

[tom gliant]

obama won texas woot woot

[No obamanation]

** A Former Muslim woman and proud American citizen familiar with Islam law, agrees obama is very dishonest man, here is why Obama is a Christian now. He was born a Muslim because his father was Muslim and his step father was Muslim. According to Muslim religion, the father’s religion determines the religion of the offspring. Therefore, Obama was truly once a Muslim although he denies he was ever a Muslim, which shows once again he doesn't have the backbone or honesty to recognize his heritage. When he came to the U.S to live with his maternal grandparents, is when he was introduced to Christianity. To hear him say that he’s never been a Muslim his entire life is truly a lie since he spent his first 10 years in Indonesia, a Muslim country, living with a Muslim step father and don’t forget the law in Islam called TAGIYEH which means you can lie about your religion in order to do good for Allah! My question to you is what good does obama plan to do for Allah! Since he has the public backing of Louis Farrakhan. Nation of Islam Minister, Obama agrees and highly respects the opinions of his spiritual advisor Rev. Wright who has recently awarded notorious Louis Farrakhan. Nation of Islam Minister with their churches highest award, Farrakhan epitomizes racism, in the form of anti-Semitism, record of offensive statements, even denigrating the Holocaust falsely attributing it to Jewish cooperation with Hitler "They helped him get the Third Reich on the road. Any praise of Farrakhan heightens the prestige of the leader of the Nation of Islam. His anti-Semitism and false insistence that Jews have played an inordinate role in victimizing African Americans. Farrakhan has vilified whites and singled out Jews to blame for crimes. He talks of Jewish conspiracies and reviled Jews in a manner that brings Hitler to mind. And yet Obama who HAS NOT distanced himself from Farraklhan as he wants the media to believe and Rev Wright heaped praise of Farrakhan. Applauding his "depth of analysis when it comes to the racial ills of this nation. They praised "his integrity and honesty and called him an unforgettable force, a catalyst for change and a religious leader who is sincere about his faith and his purpose. And we should just trust our great country to a media made fairy tale which in last few days, several campaign financers, corrupt business and personal friends suck as indicted Rezko, former Dallas Mayor Hill, Rep. Rick Renzi and Mr. Auchi, leading supplier of arms to Saddam's regime convicted for corruption in France, the British-Iraqi billionaire lent millions and millions of dollars to Obama are coming out of the woodwork left and right, lies about side meetings with Canada going behind the American voters backs telling us one thing and them another. ALL this from the half black ex-Muslim man who touts change and claims to be a uniter of all people? Proof he is just another in-experienced Washington politician that the media gave a free pass at the risk of our great country!

[Karl lewis]

Obama will win Hillary will lose the race to the white house and therefore she will step down shortly for the sake of unity in the Democratic Party. If think that is a fair prediction.