General Petraeus and the US elections

Tomorrow’s congressional testimony of General David Petraeus, commander of US forces in Iraq, could prove critical to the election campaign in two ways. Firstly, the general’s assessment of the situation on the ground will either undermine or bolster the candidates’ respective positions as to whether the US should stay the course or cut and run. Secondly, and in many ways more crucially, it will provide an unparalleled opportunity for the public to see how the candidates – all of whom will question the general in their committee roles – would deal with the conflict as commander-in-chief.

If General Petraeus delivers an upbeat assessment of current progress in Iraq, it will lend support to John McCain’s claim that the surge – of which he is regarded as a key architect – has been a success and that sustained engagement in the country will ultimately bring victory. If the picture is less rosy – which, in the light of recent flare-ups, might be expected – it could convince wavering Americans that the gradual withdrawal advocated by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is the way to go.

However the impact of his actual evidence might be limited. Five years into the conflict, public opinion is fairly entrenched. Few serious opponents of the war are likely to reverse their views on the basis of the testimony of an army general, and will either dismiss a positive assessment as politicised or disregard it as having no bearing on the morality of the invasion in the first place - still a key issue for the anti-war movement. A particularly scathing assessment would have far more serious implications for the McCain campaign, but at this point in time General Petraeus is probably about as likely to admit defeat as President Bush is.

Most interesting will be how the respective candidates deal with the general. Will they take on board what he has to say, or try to use the hearings as a platform to advance their own views? Will they appear presidential, or churlish and partisan, resisting evidence that does not fit their positions? Will they demonstrate good judgement and an understanding of facts on the ground or will gaps in their knowledge be revealed? All this, and more, will no doubt be relentlessly picked over by the US media in the coming days.

Comments

[John Chuckman, Toronto, Canada]

The General undoubtedly sees some light at the end of the tunnel.

I don't know, it's been a while, but somehow I think I heard that refrain before.