Liveblogging Pennsylvania

By Gerard Baker, US Editor

11.05pm That was a strikingly different speech by Obama. Where Hillary promised to fight, he promised to heal; where she was pugnacious and partisan, he was soothing and consensual. You can see why the media falls for him so helplessly.  He can turn a phrase and lift the spirits and certainly he promises something different.

Of course, whether it amounts to anything is another matter.  But the two speeches did rather neatly capture the two campaign messages heading into the final days of this primary election. The Fighter versus The Healer.

10.32pm Well Hillary's spoken and I think we've got the message. She's a fighter. A Fighter. A FIGHTER. She's going to fight for you and fight for me and fight against them.  She's going to fight them in the shopping malls and in the bowling alleys and in the pool halls. She'll fight until the last dog dies. And then she'll get up and start fighting again. FIGHT!

That, I guess is her appeal.  You can't deny it. They keep writing her off and she keeps coming back - displaying the fight you need to win the presidency in November (unlike that elitist, latte-drinking, arugula-buying, bowling-incompetent other guy).,

It was, to be fair, a gracious victory speech, with a couple of nice nods to her opponent. One of her best speeches, I think. And so. On she goes. With just enough of a win , and just enough of a doubt in voters' minds about Obama's electability, to keep this race going for a few weeks yet.

9.40pm Awaiting victory and concession speeches, a couple of thoughts: First, clearly, Pennsylvania has resolved nothing. Hillary did not win by enough to dispel the strong doubts about her viability (she can't win the popular vote; she can't win on delegates; even in Pennsylvania, solid home turf for her in demographic terms, she only ekes out a single-digit victory). But she won by enough to make a plausible case that she should carry on (Obama keeps losing big states, he couldn't convert his huge financial advantage; the doubts about his electability keep growing).

Second, McCain again looks like a winner tonight.  The simple truth of the Democratic campaign is that neither candidate has done enough to remove the doubts hanging over them. And we've got at least another month of this.

8.51pm MSNBC, now the semi-official cable channel of left wing Democrats, has called it for Hillary. Less interesting than meets the eye, one thinks, because all depends on the margin. 

8.45pm Still very few real results but some slight tweaking of the exits means the margin is a little narrower than an hour ago - 52-48 for Hillary.   If that's right it would be the most pyrrhic of victories - nothing like enough to change the fundamental arithmetic of the race that favours Obama.  If (that word again) the exits are right, Obama will have done better than in Ohio - a similar state regarded as a kind of benchmark for Pennsylvania.  He owes this improvement, according to those iffy exits, to a much better result among white voters than he got in Ohio.  Very interesting, after all that's happened in the last few weeks (Jeremiah Wright, the bitter clinging of white working class voters etc.) Still, did I say those exits were not necessarily reliable?

8.15pm Coy as ever, the networks are not offically releasing the headlines from their exit poll results but a quick calculation from the cross-tabulations suggests Hillary has won by about 53-47. In amost all previous primaries these exits  have tended to overstate Obama's support. If that pattern is repeated it means Hillary's margin could be anywhere between 8 and 15 per cent, which is an intriguing range. If the result is at the bottom end of that range it'll be a status quo result - not a big enough win to change fundamentally the dynamic of the race or significantly dent Obama's advantage. If it's at the top end, it could be a game-changer, a big enough Hillary win to breathe some serious life into the remaining contests. Stay tuned.

Comments

[ethan hurlington]

What do you think is the minimum that Clinton needs to win by to stop the calls for her to step down. It's interesting what one of her supporters said on CNN about the fact that if she wins tonight, she will have won the top 5 big states. Apparently, in the general election, Pennsylvania is one of the main swing states...and I'm also amazed that the exit polls were suggesting that those voters who have decided in the last week who to vote for (thus since Clinton's move to an even more aggressive stance) are more likely to vote for her. I thought it would have only done her harm! Come on Obama! You are what the American people and the world needs!

[Freedem]

The exit polls have not overstated Obama's support, it is the various Election Fraud Schemes that have understated it.

Just look at the past few elections, even when Democrats won, what was a blowout in Polling became s squeaker in vote counting. Even child molesting Congressman Foley nearly won, and never went to court.

[Vincenzo]

Hold on there Gerald, take a step back.

Clinton was being outspent in PA by Obama, and still won a ten-point victory. Yes, it was her's to lose but she has managed to get through, even though the media have been painting her as a lame duck for ages now.

Obama hit the state hard but, even with all the momentum his campaign seems to have, has still failed to win a big state outright. That's an immediate question that should be worrying the Democrats; for someone pushing that he can bring the country together, people seem to like the idea but not everyone's behind the product.

So I people should think carefully about dumping too heavily on Clinton. Yes, it is annoying that the battle will carry on but the Democrats need to ensure they have a candidate that can win, not one they just like the look of.

[doggerel]

It's gripping but will the two gladiators fight each other to the death? It looks increasingly likely that the guy with the club will stroll from the wings to take the stage after the net and trident have floored each other.
I was staggered by Hillary's declaration yesterday about wiping out Iran in the event that they do anything to provoke such retaliation. She certainly doesn't want to portray herself as feminine. I think she's tough enough for anything, but the question remains as to whether the American people will accept either a woman or a man of color when it finally comes down to it.

[A group of concerned high school seniors!]

Male chauvinistic and racial ignorace is ruining democratic election.

[Daphne Kenward]

Hillary is in a race she has already lost, Obama said clearly he would not win in (PA).I know the make up of Hillary's supporters are old un-educated people,some are former segregationist and have no interested in employment because they are retired women. (PA) has the 2nd largest population of such people outside Florida. the other 46% vote Obama and Hillary got 53% the other 7% it is not a huge majority. Hillary should have been out of the race from the moment she began to tell lies and stiring up hatred about Obama, and taking Republican's money to damage the Democratic Party for her own ends. She has one Interest alone it is the CLINTONS DYNASTY, and F...! the American people what are they doing for the Clintons says Hillary. Hillary is only worried about where her money is coming from, to line her own pocket for her self & her family. Stiring up lies about Obama the only respectable person in the race. Accusing an 8 year old of being associated with a few white Terrorist in America is just too dam low, Hillary is a VENOMOUS Rattle snake. Then accusing Obama of putting words in Rev Wright's mouth, Rev Wright is responsible for his own words, not any one else. Rev Wright has his own opinion. More over what Rev Wright was saying was taken out of contex, if the whole sermon was ever played. Fox News is great at cut & paste and making the innocent into criminals to get vewers. The people that are most important is people who are educated and have something to contribute to society, and have a vested interest in the prosperity and future of life on our planet one foot in the grave over 60's have an interest too, but if young people are prevented from working because the over 60's are voting against the future it affects every one Hillary is a barrier between the future and the past, these old people are not interested in the future, that is where politics have gone wrong in the past old people do not serve any real purpose in life other than being comsumers, their life expectancy is about 30 years and the youth of today have the rest of their life, a 72 year old man has no future he has one future it is I may live for another 3 years if I am lucky, he has no interest in the future and the effect of his decision has nothing to do with the future but only what looks good now, they have no vested interest in the life and welfare of the Children of the future, they are at the end of their life, and all they do is clock up debt for the children of the future so far each one is in debt of 30'000 Dollars that is every man woman and child, or there about, young people are our future not some 61 year old woman or a 72 year old man, more young people must part take in politics and cultivate a future for their children, and a better world for all, Hillary and McCain are old has beens, and more young people who care about the kind of world we want for our children should play a bigger part, hence why Obama appeals to the young and I hope he continues to do so. He is a real insperation, to people all across the globe.