Obama toughest opponent for McCain, says poll, as figures show Clinton slipping

The question of which Democratic candidate would be the toughest opponent for John McCain has been the subject of a constant tussle since the Arizona senator emerged as the all-but-certain Republican nominee. Now it appears that a majority of both Republican and Democratic voters believe Barack Obama is the one to beat.

A new poll released by Gallup found that a hefty 59 per cent of Democrats and 64 per cent of Republicans think Obama has the best chance of beating McCain come November. Just 30 per cent of Democrats and 22 per cent of Republicans polled said Hillary Clinton would make a stronger opponent.

The results suggest that the former first lady is failing to make the case that she is more electable than Mr Obama, an argument with which she has justified continuing in a race that she is virtually certain to lose on pledged delegates. She hopes she can persuade the superdelegates – some 800 senior Democrats and elected officials who have a free vote on the nominee – to swing the contest in her favour come convention time if, as expected, both candidates fail to reach the magic delegate tally of 2,025 needed to clinch the nomination.

Obama has an insurmountable lead of 171 delegates while Clinton's hopes of winning the popular vote have dimmed considerably with the announcement last week that primaries in Michigan and Florida – states banned from sending delegates to the convention as a penalty for scheduling their contests early – would not be re-run. She argues, however, that having won most of the big states such as California, Ohio and New York during the primaries, she is the candidate most likely to carry them in the autumn. She has also pointed to recent controversies dogging Obama – such as contentious comments made by his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, and corruption charges faced by his ex-fundraiser Tony Rezko – as evidence that he will be unable to withstand the Republican onslaught in a full-blown election campaign.

But Obama, whose aides have accused the Clinton campaign of increasingly dirty tactics in its bid to destroy his candidacy, appears to have ridden out the storm of recent events, according to the latest poll numbers. Figures from Rasmussen released today indicate that Clinton’s once sizeable lead over Obama in Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22, has narrowed to just 5 per cent, from 10 per cent a week ago.

Clinton was once thought to be almost guaranteed a win in the Keystone state, which, with its large population of blue collar workers, is fertile ground for the New York senator. The most delegate-rich state left to vote, a win here is crucial if she hopes to stay in the race until the August convention. However she now commands the backing of just 47 per cent to Obama’s 42 per cent, raising the prospect of an upset which could see the young Illinois senator deliver the final blow to her presidential ambitions. Her support has slipped from 52 per cent in early March, to 51 per cent mid-month, to 49 per cent a week ago and 47 per cent today. During the same time frame, support for Obama has risen from 37 percent to 42 per cent.

There is bad news nationally for Clinton too, with Gallup's daily tracking poll showing Obama maintaining a healthy lead in Democratic preferences across the country. It put Obama on 51 per cent to Clinton's 43 per cent, the fourth consecutive daily report showing Obama with a statistically significant lead. Marking the first time since February that either candidate has held a statistically significant lead for more than two days, the report indicates a reassuring trend for the man who hopes to become America's first black president.

Comments

[drfreud]

McCain is insane! He's a PTSD sufferer with an anger management problem. He graduated at the bottom of his class (850 out of 855). He was allowed to become a navy pilot because his father and grandfather were navy bigwigs then proceeded to crash 4 planes before being shot down in his 5th. He left his wife for a rich hot 25 year old who eventually stole drugs from the non-profit she ran and got brain damage! It's all true! President McCain would be a disaster!

[Brett]

A Pennsylvania loss would be the end for the Clinton Campaign. She would immediately begin finding a way to gracefully withdraw from the contest, and if she didn't, the Party Leadership would seriously starting bearing down on her to quit.

[Daphne Kenward]

If Hillary, could not even pay the small businessmen and women in this recession, and the best her campaigners could do was trash their businesses. I hope these humble hard working small business men and women do the right thing, and ensure Hillary Clinton pick up the cost of all the damages. Following her dirty tricks and lack of respect for a candiate who is from the same party as her self it shows a self centred, reckless out of control woman, who is more interested in her self than anyone else. She has also failed to pay her campaigners, and also their health care. Last week she claims she was under gun fire in Bosinia, which trurns out to be a lie. She has damaged her reputation that's if she had any to start with. After G W Bush I am sick of lies, in High office. It has cost too many lives. The Service man & women who gets out of Iraq with their lives may well develope Cancer from the bombs bropped by American fighter Jets, because many of those bombs have depleted Uranium, which if exposed to people can cause Cancer. So this War have far reaching consiquences, that the Government does not convey to the Service men & Women, or the locals in Iraq.
It's a shame Hillary Clinton thinks she owns the Democratic Party Just because her husband was once President, she was running on Damaged Goods. All young Female Interns would be under threat from inappropriate behaviour by her husband, leading to another scandal. What is required is some one who can focus on running and leading America in a moral and sound way. We don't need any more sound bites from Hillary who has shown her self as imballanced. And her Campaign has shown her to lack control, and leadership, Businesses had their establishment trashed bills left unpaid, does this sound like a President to any one. Well she never impressed me. The add she ran about the phone call at three in the morning, showed she was sloppy, she did not find out if the Girl in the add was voting for her, turns out she is voting Obama. She can't disclose her Tax returns, because it would show her supporters that she has been a part of the problem not the solution, what she was relying on is to attract the under Educated people who would never know where she & her husband invest their Money, and it's not in the American People, she thought because Obama was Black, he lacked ability. Obama is far more Educated than she is, she flunked her EXAMS, and bearly scraped through. All this experience she claims to have she can't even competently put out a simple add. Without it backfiring on her. Where was she when her Husband was having an afair with Monica, she can't even run her own household, he has had over 30 affairs, where was Mrs Clinton?. Or is she hanging on to a name. Mrs Clinton needs to sort out her emotional problems, the UNITED STATES is in enough trouble and don't need an unstable leader. She is relying on a few Old Grannies, who are out of touch with the real world, they don't need her they have McCain who is more than old enough.

[John W Meadows]

Here in California our votes are usually considered irrelevant as it is a winner take all state in Presidential elections,fifty one percent takes all the electoral college votes.
There is a feeling that this time it may be different,either of the democratic contenders look to be vulnerable once the real contest starts.
Perhaps this time, as we did with Reagan, we can be rid of the"yellow dog democrat" appellation.
(the American expression refers to a political party that is so entrenched they would still win even if they nominated a yellow dog,sounds a bit like Nulab).

[James F.]

Being an American myself, I am disappointed with my country as a whole. Do the American people ever think for themselves? Do they ever think? Just like when Bush won his second time, it was merely an election based on popularity or his friendliness. Same thing seems to be occuring with the Hillary vs. Obama situation. Hillary practically has eight years of presidential experience as it is so she knows what to do and what not to do. I regret that this selection is going to be based on race and sex. Minorities want to vote against "whites" or men want to vote against women. When will this country wake up? When will they develop a brain. When will they start thinking in terms of what will be best in terms of the people as a whole? I am sick and tired of making ends meet and watching the country go to hell in a hand basket because most people remain ignorant in this country. But it's okay because "we're American, we're the best!" Give me a break.

[Chris Gudgin]

Hillary should quit now and avoid possible damage to the Democrats with her less than positive campaigning.

[Phil H]

To James F - Just because she was married to the President, that does not mean "Hillary practically has eight years of presidential experience as it is". She is trying to take credit for Northern Ireland etc, but being married to someone does not mean his achievements are her achievements.

If I am a nurse and have been married to a neurosurgeon for 7 years, would you let me operate on your brain based on the notion that I 'practically have 7 years of experience in neurosurgery'??

That's not how the world works James...thankfully!

[Jamie]

McCain is our best choice. Stop being Ageist when you consider him. Age means nothing these days. He's an honorable man who could have left the POW camp early due to his families background but instead chose to remain with the men in the POW camp. Who cares if he graduated last in his class 50 years ago? Billary is a liar, Obama is too radical for me.

[Kat Beglinger L'Estrange]

"Do the American people ever think for themselves? Do they ever think? Just like when Bush won his second time, it was merely an election based on popularity or his friendliness."

Here I beg to differ with you! The American people didn't elect Bush the first or second time. The last two presidential elections have been gamed -- and they'll continue to be gamed as long as the Republicans continue to manipulate the process. A prime example of the manipulation is Rush Limbaugh's call for Republicans to register as Democrats in the primaries to vote for Hillary in order to give John McCain the advantage in the fall. What -- can't Republicans win elections fair and square? Evidently not.

Give us the facts and the opportunity to vote and have our votes counted as intended, and as a nation we can handle any crisis.

The Democrats, Clinton, Obama and Dean, are in for a rude awakening in the fall should they continue to stand by and do nothing but watch their voters be disenfranchised at the polls on Election Day.

I'm beginning to realize this nation certainly needs its voters, but not so sure it needs its political parties!

[David Woods]

Daphne Keward, please learn to spell and punctuate correctly, before your arguments become illegible. You are a regular writer on this site and, although I usually agree with your views, you often are less than coherent. Please realise half of your arguments are crap, and shut up.

[George Chacko]

I am American Citzen came from India. You know very well that No Asians will vote for Obama. If Obama is going to play race card, he will not much vote from Whites also. I am sure that Christians are upset with Obma for his support to his pastor. The american soldiers are upset with his Pastor's comment. The readers like us expecting fare judgement from timesonline when they publish articles.

Thank You

[Greg B]

I think if BOTH parties could do it over again we all would find a different candidate. One that would put America first instead of themselves. My party is far to concerned with being likable instead of doing what we elected them to do. And our candidate is to liberal for my taste. Mrs Clinton we know what we have there (sell us all out to China)! Mr. Obama , if he were anymore left he fall off the scale, give him a few more years to show us the real man.
My wish is that Bill Cosby would run, a man of ethics and seems to want all to do their best reguardless of color. At least he could write some good material!
God Bless America

[Daphne Kenward]

I think it's time Hillary called it a day and get out of the race, because she is losing in donations, as well as support. Chelsea was asked questions on Bill & Hillary's private life and it's embarrassing, for Chelsea. I know Bill came out and said he never had Sexual relations with Monica, but Monica was not the only one. I think all the ladies who had affairs with Mr Clinton should cash in now on their stories, I am sure there are many shockers out there, then Chelsea would not need to feel uncomfortable by the questions asked on the subject.