Polls: Clinton set for Pennsylvania win, but it may not be enough

With under 24 hours to go until the last major contest in the primary season, polls indicate that Barack Obama has little hope of catching rival Hillary Clinton, for whom the state’s large blue collar population is a natural constituency. But certain figures suggest that he has every chance of eating so far into her margin of victory that she can no longer justify continuing in the Democratic race.

Most late polls put Clinton with a 5-7 point lead in Pennsylvania, the only remaining primary state with a healthy crop of delegates – 158 - up for grabs. But with no prospect of catching Obama in the overall delegate count, the Clinton camp knows that winning will not be enough. In order to convince the all-important super-delegates who will decide the nomination that she is the most electable candidate, she must win big.

Today’s Zogby poll – the most recent survey available - shows Clinton leading Obama 48 to 42 per cent, while a poll of polls by Real Clear Politics gives Clinton a 5.3 point margin over her rival. However this is a considerably narrower lead than Clinton commanded at the start of the state campaign and suggests Obama could yet erode her support to a point that a win would be of little consequence.

There is, of course, potential for an upset. One survey conducted over the weekend by Public Policy Polling gives Obama a 3 point lead over the former first lady, and notes his strength in cities such as Philadelphia, where a strong turnout could boost his chances.

Meanwhile an analysis by Politico cites a Democratic voter registration surge that appears to be working in Obama’s favour.

According to the Pennsylvanian Secretary of State’s office, around 217,000 new voters have registered for tomorrow’s primary, an overwhelming majority of whom declared themselves Democrats.

In the state’s largest city, Philadelphia, over 12,000 new Democrats signed up in the final week of registration, compared to just 509 Republicans. Meanwhile across the state over 178,000 voters have changed their party affiliations since January – with 92 per cent switching to the Democrats.

This is excellent news for the Democratic Party and could severely dent John McCain’s hope of taking the state in November. But a closer look reveals a bonus for Obama too.

A poll of the party switchers and new registrants released last week by Franklin & Marshall College found that Obama was the candidate of choice for 62 per cent. Clinton insiders cited by Politico said they were also anticipating a similar split.

Terry Madonna, a political scientist and the poll’s director, said that depending on turnout, those new voters could keep Clinton from the double digit win that is widely thought to be needed to keep her in the race.

If Zogby’s latest poll is to be believed, however, Clinton is scoring highly among late deciders, a trend that if it continues could see her extend her edge in tomorrow’s vote. It shows her widening her margin by 3 points in the space of just 24 hours, with a corresponding 2 point drop in undecideds.

The popular belief is that Clinton needs to win by at least 10 points in order to justify continuing in the Democratic race. Any less, and she would have no chance of winning the popular vote, which even supporters acknowledge is her only hope of convincing superdelegates to ignore Obama’s greater delegate count and award her the nomination at the August convention.

Today, some analysts suggested that even if she scored a landslide win of 25 points or more she would struggle to catch her rival in the popular vote. An analysis by Bloomberg found that even with such a hefty victory she would need to win by over 20 points in later contests such as West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. That is assuming she can break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon, states where she is currently struggling in the polls.

To catch him now, Clinton needed “blowout numbers,” Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn't affiliated with either campaign, was quoted as saying. “The wheels would have to come off the Obama bus, and the engine would have to blow.”

For those hoping to avoid a messy showdown at the convention, the worst outcome would be that Clinton wins by a margin in single digits but yet significant enough to claim a mandate for staying in the race.

Says Andrew Sullivan on the Atlantic’s Daily Dish: “Given the way the campaign has unfolded so far, you can see the looming nightmare scenario: Clinton wins by nine points. Not enough to alter the dynamics of the race in her favour, but enough to keep the agony going. For all our sakes, I hope we get a real decision soon.”

Comments

[gb]

As an impartial observer to all this (I'm a Republican), I have to say I don't understand this constant clamor for Clinton to get out of the race. It's a political campaign, isn't it? Everyone talks about the 'impossible math' but it isn't impossible at all. The superdelegates are going to decide this thing anyway. If Clinton finishes strong, who's to say what might happen? I also think someone should make the argument that it's the screwy Democratic rules that have constantly worked against her in apportioning delegates. For instance, she won the popular vote in Texas but was awarded fewer delegates. That's insane. Sounds like someone's stealing the election, and it's not her. For all that, there's not that big a gap between her and Obama, certainly nothing like the gap between McCain and Huckabee when Huckabee continued to campaign. I think it's the media who is tired of Hillary and is champing at the bit to go on to the next phase; well just slow down, people, we'll get there eventually. Let events run their course.

[Carol Minto]

I can't wait for Mr. Obama to get all the voters away from Hillary in Pennsylvania and push Hillary out of the way. Enough of all this dirty politics that she and her husband are spewing. It is draining on the nerves of fair-minded people. She is so eager to get back to the White house that she doesn't mind losing her dignity and credibility.

[Norm Bruen]

We must not forget Goldsmith: Heaven has no rage like love to hatred turned, nor hell a fury like a woman scorned.

[Timothy D. Naegele]

Hillary is finished, but she and Bill can't or won’t admit it publically. Are they trying to position her to run in 2012, if Obama loses to McCain, like McGovern lost to Nixon and Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush? Probably so. After what Obama has been through with her, the chances of him picking her as his running mate are slim-to-none, despite pressures from some on the Left to have this happen. The last thing Obama needs is to have Hillary and Bill sniping at him throughout his presidency, if he should win. She is running out of money fast, and that is apt to bring about the demise of her candidacy sooner rather than later, regardless of what happens in Pennsylvania. For those of us who have never liked the Clintons, and who have liked Hillary even less than Bill—and that includes lots of Democrats—the celebrations are about to begin, as they fade into political history like Ted Kennedy did after the inevitability of his presidency became nothing more than a pipedream, spun by the sycophants of Camelot.

[Graham]

God help America if Clinton gets in.....She fights dirty and ruthlessly, is this the kind of leader the America needs after the last bunch? even more so after Bill's term in office... " I did not have sexual relations with that woman"
Don't "birds of a feather flock together"?

[The Reverend Jim Wellington]

The usual soundness of Tim Hames' political judgment deserted him yesterday in his column on the Obama-Clinton contest. IF Obama were to win the majority of states, delegates and votes in the primaries how on earth could the super-delegates overturn that collective decision? They may be entitled to do so constitutionally, but it would be political suicide. How could the Democrats retain any street cred whatsoever with its African-American constituency?

[onedge]

Dont count Hillary out just yet, she has more lives than a litter of cats. Shes going to win by a huge majority and relight the fire under her campaign that desperately went out after the last primary

[Shah Baig]

This shows the true fabric of OBAMA's Character. He places praise and criticism where it’s due. I am an Asian Brit, living in the UK, and I recently became a Dad. People like OBAMA give me hope, for my Son. If OBAMA becomes the President, he will be the First Non-White Leader of a Western Country. That tells me and Millions of Immigrants like me that my Boy has an equal shot at the Prime Minister-ship of Great Britain, simply because this man has open the Floodgates of Opportunity. That leads me and others like me in western countries to join and integrate fully in our adopted homeland. Our Children may longer be subjected to Racism and Inequality, but are seen as assets and leaders of Tomorrow. In 40-50 years it will be hard to imagine that all this began with OBAMA becoming the First Non-White Leader in the Western World. This has far- reaching implications. OBAMA is liked by the Arab world, by the muslim World, by the Asian World, By Africans and By Europeans, By American Independents, Democrats and moderate Republicans. I have never seen a modern day Politician who has such Mass Appeal.

[Shah Baig]

This shows the true fabric of OBAMA's Character. He places praise and criticism where it’s due. I am an Asian Brit, living in the UK, and I recently became a Dad. People like OBAMA give me hope, for my Son. If OBAMA becomes the President, he will be the First Non-White Leader of a Western Country. That tells me and Millions of Immigrants like me that my Boy has an equal shot at the Prime Minister-ship of Great Britain, simply because this man has open the Floodgates of Opportunity. That leads me and others like me in western countries to join and integrate fully in our adopted homeland. Our Children may longer be subjected to Racism and Inequality, but are seen as assets and leaders of Tomorrow. In 40-50 years it will be hard to imagine that all this began with OBAMA becoming the First Non-White Leader in the Western World. This has far- reaching implications. OBAMA is liked by the Arab world, by the muslim World, by the Asian World, By Africans and By Europeans, By American Independents, Democrats and moderate Republicans. I have never seen a modern day Politician who has such Mass Appeal.

[Peter Cobbold]

My observation from the north side of the US border:.

American voters should remember that the US in a republic. Hilary wants to be Queen and have Bill as prince consort who will, no doubt, manipulate in the background. And of course their princess will no doubt run to be queen in 2016.

Get with it Americans, vote for Obama for the future of your children, not for the status quo Clinton.

[Peter Cobbold]

My observation from the north side of the US border:.

American voters should remember that the US in a republic. Hilary wants to be Queen and have Bill as prince consort who will, no doubt, manipulate in the background. And of course their princess will no doubt run to be queen in 2016.

Get with it Americans, vote for Obama for the future of your children, not for the status quo Clinton.

[Daniela Busel]

One Hundred million dollars is the income accrued by Hilary Clinton during the past ten years which the public 'know about'!

Hilary Clinton worked for years as a corporate lawyer representing the multi billion dollar 'Walmart' company and has enjoyed both an 'elitist' and 'privileged' background and lifestyle which the vast majority of the normal american people she now claims to represent could only dream about.

The truth is Hilary Clinton is little more than a calculating,'careerist' expounding the old tiring yawn,yawn round of rhetoric designed to 'hoodwink' the man/woman in the street that she has their interests at heart.

Come on! Get real! ha,ha,ha,ha.In these days of the internet,the average person in the street can cut through the traditional media spin and propaganda and access information across the realm of politics and social life,the result being that people are now becoming more socially and politically informed.

That said,a mere 1 hour internet research foray into Obama's social and political background reveals a person let alone a candidate of extrodinary talent,ability,political experience and resilience,who not only overcame substantial personal social and economic adversity to climb out of the poverty of Illinois,Chicago,where only last weekend 20 pewople were shot in a 12 hour period,leaving three of them dead!to acquire a place at Harvard University,but chose to return to the city after graduating to become a community organizor working for years to support the poor and marginalized seeking to improve their life chances.

To attempt to 'undermine' somebody of such talent, integrity and meaning political purpose using a constant 'barrage' of 'semantics' 'goal post changing' 'petty point scoring' and pernicious slander,due to jealousy and a desire to 'feather her own nest' beggars belief and is a profound insult to the general public's intelligence and ability to be able to discern what she really stands for.

The truth is Hilary Clinton is a Multi millionaire with no empathy,interest or understanding about the normal person in the street and is only running for president to line her own pocket and further enhance her own social status.

Obama alternatively who is a born leader,comes from a poor background,in Illionois,Chicago,fought his way to Harvard University,returning to campaign for years on behalf of the working class and possesses substantial real political experience, integrity,honesty and a genuine desire to unite and advance the interests of the american people.

Pennslyvania, vote with your head and your heart and put this money grabber Hilary Clinton out of the race decisively!